Tennessee at Kansas City

Tennessee at  Kansas City

When these two last played, it was in Nashville. The quarterbacks combined for over 70% completion percentage, 5 passing touchdowns, 627 yards, and no interceptions. If you have been paying attention you can probably predict… Henry was the driving force in this win in the regular season. He ran for 188 yards on 23 carries, got into the endzone twice, and didn’t fumble. After the tape and numbers Henry has put up combined with how Kansas City clamped down the last three quarters last week, this game should be different.

Then again, Baltimore should have been able to spend time reviewing film and creating a successful game plan to clamp down and didn’t. The fact of the matter is, stopping a 250lbs running back who can outrun linebackers is more than difficult. Ryan Tannehill started the game hot, but once again passed for fewer than 100 yards in the win, but he started the game going 4/5 for 68 yards and 2 scores. After that, it was the Derrick Henry show. Tannehill was incredibly ineffective the rest of the way with a stat line of 3/10 for 20 yards, but one completion was a clutch 3^rd down conversion to AJ Brown in the red zone, his only catch. What we have seen Tennessee do is play smart football with the pass, hitting opportunistic deep balls and targeting high percentage slants in the short game. On defense, they attempted to overwhelm the Baltimore defensive front while not giving up contain on Lamar (it worked about as well as could be hoped). Sticky man coverage to the outside by Jackson helped limit Brown, and pesky safety and linebacker play made big wins against the tight ends.  Tennessee is rolling in Kansas city as a model of efficiency.

The Chiefs are waiting for them with a team which averaged over a point a minute the last 40 minutes of game time. A huge kick return and two pass plays scored their first TD. A fake punt foiled by a perfect Daniel Sorensen tackle put Patrick Mahomes and company 33 yards from pay dirt, and a quick score. A forced fumble on the ensuing kickoff (credited to the same Daniel Sorensen) gave KC only 6 yards to 6 points. In four minutes, the Chiefs went from stuck in mud to only a field goal behind. Mahomes wasn’t sacked all day and threw 5 touchdowns. After the defense gave up two touchdowns in the first quarter, as well as a blocked punt for a Houston TD, the Chiefs only gave up 10 points the rest of the game. The next 4 drives resulted in 2 punts, a failed trick play (mentioned above) and a missed field goal. An early 3^rd quarter score faded from memory quickly as the Chiefs put the finishing touches on a 51 point day.

When Tennessee has the ball: As it is “win or go home” time, it makes sense for Henry to be ridden this hard. He missed week 16 with a bum hamstring, but has averaged over 30 touches and more than 200 scrimmage yards a game since. As far as Vrabel is concerned, they earn a week of rest if the win this week, so may as well let Henry and the opposing defense grind each other to dust. Again, watch for Tannehill to take deep shots when the defense backs crowd the line to stop the run. Kansas City needs to take advantage of an offensive line which surrendered 56 sacks in the regular season. They don’t need to sell out to get the QB; play the run as you get upfield. Chris Jones and Frank Clark are their best players, but the DC loves to blitz. Three defensive backs have sacks, and five defensive line/edge players have at least 4 sacks. KC ranks 12^th in sack percentage for the year, as well as 13^th for passing yards per game. The Chris Jones injury becomes even more important in this game as Tennessee is a much better and more consistent running team than Houston. As good as the KC front line is, their secondary ranks very poorly overall, dropping many interceptions and forcing few incompletions. With Juan Thornhill out, the pass defense is far worse, as he was the second best graded player. Tyrann Mathieu, a perennial back end enforcer and ball hawk, will have to play lights out against this big play defense, because Bashaud Greeland and Kendall Fuller are not playing well. While the surface stats look good, with 16 interceptions from 8 different players, the back end appears feast or famine. AJ Brown had one of the most efficient rookie seasons for a receiver ever, and could feast on underneath routes and the occasional deep pop, especially if he get put against Sorensen deep. Dion Lewis catching out the back field is also a wrinkle to watch. Advantage Tennessee.

When Kansas City has the ball: An absolute workshop was put on by Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ offense in quarters 2, 3, and 4 of their divisional round game. The Kelce connection was on fire, propelling the team forward and kickstarting the comeback. Even when Damien Williams caught the first score, it was because Kelce blocked the crap out of the linebackers. In the second quarter, Mahomes targeted Kelce eight times. 5 were completed for 63 yards and three touchdowns. Two were DPI calls for 43 yards. Only one counted as an incomplete pass. Step one in slowing down this offense is cover Kelce and Hill. There are so many weapons to burn you in this offense, but taking away Kelce is where is all begins. Rashaan Evans has the athleticism to stay with Kelce, but he isn’t the best at coverage overall. Kevin Byard is best ball hawking in the back as a top tier safety, so he may be more necessary in the backend instead of matched up on a man. Kenny Vaccaro or a healthy Jayon Brown are other picks. Adoree’ Jackson needs to continue to take away burners, in this case Tyreek Hill. Matching up one of the top CBs in the game with a guy who can score with any touch is a best bet. From there, you still need that defensive front to do even more than what they did against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. While the pass rush created pressure, and the Titans won handily, Jackson slipped out of the pocket a LOT. Mahomes can do the same. Casey, Simmons, Evans, and Harold Landry are going to be critical at balancing sizzling pressure against lane discipline. A shallow zone with 2 LBs or hybrid players could help prevent running plays from both the backs and Mahomes while limiting quick passes to the middle of the field. Advantage Kansas City.

Outcome: Kansas City showed last week why I have trouble betting against them. They can always score. Unlike Baltimore, Mahomes has a plethora of mismatch options in Kelce, Watkins, Hill, and the speed of Mecole Hardman in the passing and jet sweep game. LeSean McCoy and Williams are still a good combo of backfield weapons as well. Tennessee doesn’t appear to have enough depth of talent to take out everyone, meaning Mahomes will find the open guy and get the points. Can Tennessee keep up with the Chiefs? I think they can, if Henry is still able to carry this team. The best option for a Tennessee victory is grinding out long drives for points and wearing down the KC defense, while also hitting a deep pass with a great enough frequency to pull Mathieu back from the box. I don’t think Tennessee can continue to limit enough plays to stay in this one and ultimately fall behind in the second half. Tannehill falls back to reality a bit, and a 4^th quarter pick followed by a Chief TD drive ends any realistic hope for a comeback. Chiefs go to the Superbowl, 37-31.