Houston at Kansas City

Houston at Kansas City

As noted in the beginning, Houston already has a win against Kansas City, in Arrowhead. In was the last game in a harsh 4 week period for the Chiefs. They were without Tyreek Hill, had a hobbled Mahomes, and Chris Jones and Frank Clark weren’t at 100% either. The Chiefs went 2-2 in that span with a negative point differential and the offense coughing up 6 turnovers (while the defense forced 6, I might add). Houston ran for 192 yards, the third most this season against Chiefs (the most being a 225 yards from the Titans in a three point loss and second most being 203 in a five point win over Baltimore). Houston controlled the clock, accounting for over 39 minutes in time of possession. The Chiefs took 55 offensive snaps to Houston’s 89.  In the months since, Chiefs have gotten healthy, their offense is humming, and the defense has really taken a step up in the ranks the last 6 weeks, all wins where they have allowed 69 total points. Andy “The Punt-Pass-And-Kick Walrus” Reid claims he has a whole book of unscouted plays to employ.

Houston barely avoided a wild card upset compliments of a simple physics experiment (an object in motion stays in motion unless acted upon by an equal and opposite motion, and Matt Milano was equal and opposite to Siran Neal, which allowed Watson to stay up). Deshaun Watson clung to the ball, avoided injury, and made the play of the game. The Texans fought the Bills hard after a slow start, and came back to take the lead, and eventually win in overtime. It was ugly. Well, not all of it. Watson completed 20 of 25 passes at nearly 10 yards per attempt, and rushed for over 50 yards. The defense was pretty good outside of the Josh Allen trick play TD. The offense should get back burner Will Fuller to open things up for Hopkins more. Houston was maddeningly inconsistent throughout the season, playing eventual 13-3 Saints tight before barely beating Jacksonville by 1, losing to Carolina the week before hanging 50 on Atlanta, then beating New England before getting demolished by Denver. So who will show up? I honestly don’t know.

When Houston has the ball: Don’t look at me, I haven’t a clue what it going on with this team. The Texans O-Line came in only ahead of Seattle and the Bills in efficiency for playoff qualifiers, and did it show. Watson was under attack, getting sacked 7 times, but only for a total of 28 yards, at least. The Chiefs’ defensive front will bring pressure under Steve Spagnuola with creative and timely blitzes to go with pressure up the gut from Chris Jones. But Watson was still accurate under pressure last game, converted plenty of third down throws, and made the biggest play when it was needed. Hopkins wasn’t amazing, especially in the first half, but finishing with 6 catches on 8 targets for 90 yards against Tre’Davious White is a good day. Watching him against Kansas should be much more exciting as the Chiefs don’t have a DB of White’s caliber. Fuller and Stills are both fast, and the loss of Juan Thornhill should not be understated. He was explosive for that defense, and allowed everyone in front of him to play relaxed. Tyrann Mathieu is still a smart and gritty player, but he lacks the athleticism of his teammate. Duke Johnson is an all-purpose back, and after seeing the day Aaron Jones had a few month ago against this defense, he must be excited to be deployed in the passing game. Carlos Hyde needs to tote the rock with an aggressiveness against this team, and wear them out. I would say Houston has a slight advantage.

When Kansas City has the ball: You will witness magic from this team. There is so much speed and power here. Tyreek Hill is called Cheetah for a reason. Look on Youtube for his 200 meter run compared against the 200 meter Olympic finals in Rio. He comes in 6^th, three hundredths of a second from bronze. No DB can stick with him one-on-one, and safety coverage over the top is necessary for when his man falls behind. Mahomes can throw the ball to anywhere from anywhere, as potent as Aaron Rodgers ever was, but without the restraint and fear of interceptions. Rodgers doesn’t throw over the middle when a safety is there, but Mahomes will burn a missile between everyone to get it to his receiver. And bringing Watt and McKinney from the edge is a dangerous play, as Mahomes is as nimble as Rodgers ever was, too. The Texans defensive line must bring consistent pressure to rush throws while also holding lane integrity. Travis Kelce has been the second best tight end for years it seems, first behind Gronk, now behind Kittle. He is a dangerous weapon only the best of linebackers can consistently cover, and overshadows most DBs. Sammy Watkins is a fantastic second option, with speedy Mecole Hardman behind him. Gadget plays and various routes and pre snap motion is child’s play for this offense. And while the stats aren’t gaudy for the backfield, Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy need to be accounted for with 1300+ scrimmage yards and 12 TDs. The Texans will need to remain true to assignment and play near perfect to win. Chiefs have the easy advantage.

Outcome?: This is the first game I have picked the higher seed to win. The Houston offense won’t control the clock as well this time, Watson is going to be forced to put up points in obvious passing situations, and the Chiefs offense will hardly even be slowed down. Chiefs never look back as they rack up points. 37-17, and welcome back to the Conference Championship, Andy Reid.