Minnesota at San Francisco

Minnesota at San Francisco

At first glance, this may seem a bit of a cake walk for the Gold Diggers (not a great nickname?). The 49ers sit in the first seed with home field advantage through-out the playoffs compliments of a (tied) NFC best 13-3 record. They possess the 2^nd best scoring offense and 8^th best scoring defense, as well as both top 5 in yards, and an NFL best against the pass. They have the second best rushing attack with the most TDs on the ground in the league powered by a three headed monster of speed. The O-Line has three first rounders, they employ the best TE in the league, their starting wideouts are a dynamic and underrated weapons in 2^nd round rookie Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders. The defense boasts the best CB of the decade in Richard Sherman coupled with K’Waun Williams and Ahkello Witherspoon, who both have been phenomenal. Fred Warner made a too-little-too-late case as NFC Defensive Player of the Year by going on an 8 game stretch with 76 tackles, 3 sacks, a pick six, 7 passes defensed, and 2 fumbles. But he won’t get any votes because of Chandler Jones, Danielle Hunter, Shaq Barrett, and other such sack monsters. Also, the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year leader is in front of him. 2^nd overall pick Nick Bosa anchors three other 49er first round D-Linemen and offseason steal Dee Ford.

Minnesota came to the playoffs riding two losses, including an ugly loss at home against division rivals Green Bay. But Head Coach Mike Zimmer wisely chose to rest banged up starters Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, and the offense clicked just enough last week to knock the favored Saint out of the playoffs, in New Orleans. Kirk Cousins made big throws when they were needed, Thielen looked far more dynamic than two weeks earlier when he was shut out vs the Packers, and Dalvin Cook appeared unmarred by the shoulder injury which cost him the last two games of the regular season. Danielle Hunter continued his sacks-capades with a strip-sack of Brees to help force overtime. The stacked defensive backfield end shut down the historic Brees-Thomas connection, though facing backup QB Taysom Hill was a different story. The LBs limited Alvin Kamara, and the Saints team which came in scoring points at will was held to only 20.

As far as this matchup goes, however, it is far more challenging than a quick perusal of overall records and standings might suggest. While Minnesota dropped the last two games of the season, they were 10-4 up to that point with the only losses since Week 4 being a 3 point loss at Kansas City and a back and forth struggle against playoff bound (and nearly divisional champs over San Francisco) Seattle. Injuries sapped Minnesota at the end. Thielen was hobbled and Cook out against GB, and starting LBs Kendricks and Barr got hurt in that game. Zimmer rested his team week 17 and still only barely lost. By the playoff game, the team was feeling good, and it showed. The Saints were held to their fewest points since Week 10, Brees barely cracked 200 yards passing. Thomas , fresh off a record setting receptions season, caught 7 balls for 70 yards. Taysom Hill, a backup QB, had the only TD catch, led the team in rushing, and had the biggest throw on the night for his team. The Vikings defense got Brees to the ground 3 times, and harried him far more into his only 2 turnover game of the season. Cook had over 30 touches, 130 yards, and 2 TDs, and didn’t show the expected discomfort or timidity a shoulder injury would suggest as he carried the Minnesota offense for portions of the night.

The dynamic combination of Cook, Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph will be needed against a semi-faltering 49ers defense. After San Francisco gave up an average of only 137 passing yards and 12.4 points per game through the first 11 games (10 wins), they surrendered 240 passing yards and 29.4 points the last 5 weeks. Also, their forced turnovers dropped from 2.1/game to .8 per game. This huge drop in defensive stability could be the harbinger of defeat for San Fran. Keep in mind, however, the 49ers bye was in Week 4, and they were exhausted by the end of the season. A week of rest may put some spring back in their step. Also, the offense did not change production. They averaged basically 237 passing yards, 140 rush yards, and 30 points  during the course of the whole season, and during the last 5 games.

When Minnesota has the ball:  SF has given up 100 or more rushing yards in all but 4 games. Minnesota loves to run a healthy Cook. The Vikings have a stable of pass catchers rarely seen, with depth and high end talent across all positions, stressing the 49ers to cover everyone. Stefon Diggs went over 1000 yards on the season again, but hasn’t had a 100 yard receiving performance since week 8, and only has 2 TDs in that time. Is it time for a breakout? San Francisco has the ability to create a ton of pressure with only 4 rushers, and Minnesota still does not have a great O-Line, so anticipate pressure from Bosa, Ford, Buckner, and Armstead or a game plan of play action and extra blockers to stymie or confuse the defense. Minnesota has the ability to generate yards and points, but the slight edge here goes to San Francisco.

When San Francisco has the ball:  Kyle Shanahan is creative and employs his players to their strengths. At times, Jimmy G has proven to be as reckless as he is talented, throwing a bevy of picks early in the year (10 in 11 games) but actually had fewer when the team record faltered (3 in 5 games to end the year). George Kittle went from 5^th round afterthought to record holder for yardage by a tight end in a single season. He is also a blocking demon. Tevin Coleman was a change of pace back in Atlanta, and Raheem Mostert was undrafted. They combined for 1676 yards and 17 touchdowns. Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr will have their hands full attempting to cover these guys out of the back field. The O-Line, while talented, is middle of the pack, and the Viking defense just embarrassed one of the best lines in the league. Speed and size are aplenty with Viking DBS. All-Pro Harrison Smith holds the back end with Pro Bowl worthy Anthony Harris. Trae Waynes, Xavier Rhodes, and some shifty slot corners complete the pack. A decent move may be to trust Trae Waynes, their best cover corner this season, with Kittle, shift Mike Hughes and Mackensie Alexander, if they are healthy, to cover Sanders and Samuel with Rhodes, while letting the safeties play zone to protect against the run and the eventual broken tackles of Kittle. Minnesota can rob the 49ers of the matchup advantage they have enjoyed most of the year. I began writing this expecting the give a hearty edge to San Francisco, but I trust Zimmer to find the advantageous matchups and slow down the offense. Slight advantage Minnesota.

Outcome?: This all depends on Zimmer as well as the recent downturn in Viking receivers' health. With stitches in Thielen's ankle and Stefon Diggs I'll, I am wavering on my position. Minnesota has a dynamic defense which can shut down most anyone. I predicted in the beginning of the week with my family a Vikings win. I am going to hold to that. San Francisco ate through a schedule with no playoff teams until Week 10. However, they also went 3-2 against playoff teams this year, including scoring 48 against the Saints, 37 against the Packers, who the Viking scored an average of 17 points against. Their Defensive front is alarmingly great with 5 first round picks, three of them top 7 picks. Sherman is where he was during his Legion of Boom days, and starters Kwon Alexander and Jaquiski Tartt appear primed for healthy returns. Minnesota appears to be a team hungry and determined. Kirk Cousins “finally won a big game.” Zimmer was facing potential unemployment if he lost three straight. Cook looks as healthy as he was when leading the NFL in rushing with 5 100 yard games, 8 rushing TDs, and nearly 1000 scrimmage yards in the first 7 weeks. When the Vikings’ offense clicks, it is hard to stop. Minnesota wins a close one by closing out drives better than San Francisco and a return to form from Stefon Diggs, 31-30.