Tennessee at Baltimore

Tennessee at Baltimore

1967 called, and it approves of this game. Welcome to the ground and pound. There is the Earl Campbell type rusher (but even BIGGER) in Derrick Henry on one side, and a creative rushing attack featuring two 1,000 yard rushers in Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram on the other. Not satisfied with amazing running performances, both teams employ explosive and opportunistic passing attacks with both starting QBs at #1 and 2 in TD %, in the top 3 of passer rating and top 4 in Adjusted yards per pass attempt per Pro Football Reference. The O-Lines are phenomenal with Baltimore at 2 and Tennessee at 8. The defenses may be lacking in star power outside of the Baltimore DBs, but they are effective.

The Marcus Peters midseason trade worked out for Baltimore. They have won every game since the trade, and their points allowed dropped from 23.3 to 14.2 since, and passing yards from 270 per game to 170. And during that stretch of 10 game they played 5 against playoff qualifiers with an average point differential in those games of more than 2 TDs. Picking up Earl Thomas, though not the same player as five years ago, has helped stabilize the back end. Matt Judon and Tyus Bowser combined for 14.5 sacks and 5 forced fumbles, as well as a scoop and score. Greg Roman skillfully adapted his Colin Kaepernick offense from the three year barnstorm tour in San Francisco to Lamar Jackson’s style. Mark Ingram, a Free Agent steal in this offense, keeps teams honest in the run and Hollywood Brown’s speed coupled with Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle, and Haden Hurst make this offense tough to slow down. No one protected the left side better than Ronnie Stanley. And Justin Tucker is worth twice what he is paid.

Tennessee has become a charming postseason darling. Switching Tannehill in for Mariota got the pass offense going in ways it had never been under the second overall pick. After a 35-32 win against Kansas City before their bye week, people got hopeful. 3 straight wins got people excited. But back-to-back losses to Houston and New Orleans quelled some hype before a season finale pounding of the divisional champs got Tennessee a spot in the dance, and they are cutting loose. Derrick Henry has the perfect complement in shifty receiving back Dion Lewis. Tannehill can launch the ball to phenom rookie AJ Brown. Delanie Walker still has some juice and Corey Davis is still a big-bodied, talented, first round pick (he just probably should have gone in the second). The O-line has great pieces. They averaged 30 points in Ryan Tannehill starts. The defense’s most recognizable names come from New England in Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler. But don’t sleep on Middle Tennessee State grad Kevin Byard leading other draft picks Rashaan Evans, Harold Landry, Adoree Jackson, and Jurrell Casey. The only reason these players aren’t well known is because they play for Tennessee. Jackson was lauded as a phenom out of USC, Casey is one of the best lineman in the game, and Byard collects picks like we used to collect Pokemon cards in the late 90’s. While not a high performing defense by rank, they are good. I am a firm believer you cannot measure a team in a vacuum. The offense was ineffective under Mariota. That blows back on the defense in field position, time on the field, etc. In the latter end of the season, they scored 30 points a game, pushing opponents to be more aggressive.

When Tennessee has the ball: Vrabel needs to trust himself and his team. Not a lot of variety might happen, but it should produce. Henry is going to run. When he does, can a mostly average Baltimore front 7 stop them? That is a tall task. Once Henry breaks into the secondary, can the DBs get him down? Brown and the running backs will be targeted both shallow and deep (maybe some Davis and Walker, too). With the ball in the air, can Marlon Humphrey work with Thomas, Jimmy Smith, and Peters to limit Tannehill? After producing the best Passer Rating in the regular season, the Tennessee QB threw for a mere 72 yards on 8-15 attempts. Baltimore was 21^st in YPR allowed. Henry is a massive man who is tough to stop. Run it, use play action, and don’t fall behind by too much. This team already knocked off the most Legendary dynasty in NFL history (though not at its apex). They can now vanquish the most potent team of the year. Advantage goes to Tennessee.

When Baltimore has the ball: Fireworks. Plain and simple. Even when running the ball this team is exciting. The Ravens led the league in yards per rush compliments of Jackson and Ingram. But don’t sleep on Gus Edwards, a 700 yard rusher at 5.3 per attempt. Where Jackson is like quicksilver, Ingram and Edwards average 5 foot 11 and 230 lbs. The O-Line are Movers and Maulers. With a good but not great front 7, Tennessee will be hard pressed to generate pressures and sacks and negative runs. Baltimore is going to score on the ground as well as with opportunistic passes to Hollywood and Andrews, who had 17 TD catches between them. But Ingram and receivers Willie Snead and Miles Boykin have 13 TD catches themselves, so Jackson can distribute the ball to others as well. The Titan defensive backs will need to play tight in man and aware in zone. Protect the middle of the field. This offense has shown to be too volatile to completely stop. Just slow it. Advantage Baltimore.

Outcome?: This game should be fun. I can see anything from a close Tennessee win to a huge Baltimore win. There are factors to consider. Will Ingram be healthy? After a calf strain, he may be limited in snaps or explosion. Will Baltimore be rusty? They haven’t really played in almost a month. Is this Titan offense for real? When we saw Tannehill in Miami he wasn’t like this; was the New England game evidence of a regression to the norm? Can Tennessee replicate the early season Cleveland victory? The last Baltimore loss was by 15 point, and Cleveland forced two interceptions and another fumble while limiting Brown, Andrews, and Ingram to a long gain of 18 and sacking Jackson 4 times. The easy answer is Baltimore wins this one going away, but Vrabel learned to be flexible and creative from Belichick. I believe Tennessee will run well and hit a few timely passes, scoring enough points and eating enough time to push Baltimore to pass more than they are comfortable. Ingram plays, but still a bit hobbled, and Gus Edwards doesn’t quite fill his shoes. Hollywood is minimized by Adoree Jackson’s speed, and Rashaan Evans helps neutralize Andrews. Henry outrushes the whole Baltimore team, gaining almost 200 yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries. And to cap it off, Justin Tucker’s 55 yarder goes wide left as time expires, failing to tie it up. 27-24, Titans win.