Seattle at Green Bay

Seattle at Green Bay

Holmgren left GB for Seattle in 1999 after his storied tenure with Favre, career Green Bay rushing leader Ahman Green came to GB in a 2000 trade from Seattle, former Favre backup Matt Hasselbeck, my personal Mandela Effect (I swear his name was Hasselback!!!), goes to Seattle in 2001, the last year the Seahawks are in the AFC, only to throw a pick-six in the 2003 NFC Wildcard game against the Packers after declaring “We want the ball and we are going to score” at the OT coin flip, current Seahawks GM John Schneider leaves GB in 2010 and drafts Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson to supplant former GB backup QB Matt Flynn in 2011, the same Russell Wilson throws a controversially called touchdown in the Fail Mary game in 2012 which brought an end to the replacement refs, the 2014 NFC title game… how have these two teams developed so much history when the ‘Hawks were an AFC team less than 2 decades ago? The truth is, little of that matters this weekend. So few players remain on each team from that title game 5 years ago (and Jimmy Graham swapped sides). The Legion of Boom is gone to San Francisco, Baltimore, retirement. The front seven still has Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright, but the rest of the faces are changed. On offense, Lynch is back (sort of?) and Russell Wilson is still there, but these are markedly different teams from that title game. Still, these two teams have played each other each of the past 6 years, counting playoffs. Both are also tough in tight games, being a combined 19-3 in game decided by 8 points or fewer this season. Seattle is also angling for their remarkable 9^th win on the road this year.

When Seattle has the ball: At this point, it is Russell’s team. 5 years ago, the typical Seattle game plan was dominate on the ground and stifle the enemy with the defense. Now the offense all flows through DangeRuss. He will buy time with his legs, scramble, and has the arm strength and touch to make all the throws expected of a franchise QB. He is efficient, but his worst games are against the Packers, and he has yet to win at Lambeau. The Green Bay blitzers are dangerous themselves, with the free agent Smith Bros combining for more than 25 sacks. Kenny Clark has 6 this season from the tackle spot, and Dean Lowry tag teams with Tyler Lancaster to plug and solidify the middle. With Seattle ranking as the worst playoff O-Line by far at 27^th overall, the Packers may be bringing a lot of pressure. OC Brian Schottenheimer made the offense more high octane, but injuries to RBs Chris Carson, CJ Prosise, and Rashad Penny have pushed the team to resign Marshawn Lynch. Lynch and Travis Homer combined for only about a yard per carry last week, and didn’t do much better against the 49ers the previous week. If the D tackles can play the run while pass rushing, this offense could stall fast. But there are some dynamic pass catchers to watch. Combine phenom and (not really) 1.6% body fat wonder DK Metcalf is a size and speed freak the likes of which we have rarely seen. He broke out for 7 catches and 160 yards and a touchdown last week by employing his 6 foot 4, 230 lbs, 4.33 40-yard dash running, 27 rep benching, 40.5 inch vertical jumping body to work. Tyler Lockett, originally used mainly in gadgets and in the return game, has been phenomenal with Wilson, at one point boasting a career passer rating when targeted by Wilson in the near perfect range. He is undersized, but is more than effective as a receiver with speed and shiftiness to spare. However, the Packers backend matches up well. Kevin King is finally playing his best football for the Green and Gold, and at 6 foot 3 with 4.4 speed and much better tested agility than Metcalf, he may be the perfect match. King isn’t even near the top cover man on the team. Jaire Alexander has had a great year. He matches Lockett in size, suddenness, and speed. The perfect one-on-ones. Tramon Williams is a top rated corner this year, especially out of the slot, defying Father Time as the oldest defensive back in the league this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see DC Mike Pettine switch up the coverage, putting Alexander on Metcalf and King on Lockett while using a safety shading over the top. If it was anyone but Wilson (or an MVP) under center, I would think Green Bay has a huge advantage here. As it is, advantage still goes to the Pack.

When Green Bay has the ball: At home again! This is the first home divisional game at Lambeau since the Dez Bryant game five years ago, the week before the infamous melt-down at Seattle. Green Bay’s offense has oddly been powered more by the Aaron pounding the rock than throwing it. Aaron Jones tied for league leads in rushing TDs (with Henry) and total TDs (with McCaffrey). His 19 TDs tie for second most in a season in franchise history. When he or teammate Jamaal Williams have a 100 yard rushing or catching day, the Packers are undefeated at 7-0 this year. The Seahawks boast two great linebackers in Wright and Wagner. Wagner has consistently played at an All-Pro level for half a decade. Wright has the team lead in interceptions this year. They are rangy, and Wagner doesn’t miss tackles. Aaron Rodgers has not been what we are used to seeing from him. He couldn’t hit the grass if he was aiming for it against Detroit in the first half of the season finale. But he still came through with two clutch TD throws when needed to win the game and grab the second seed. His still rarely throws interceptions, but he has thrown picks the last two games. While Seattle no longer can claim to possess the Legion of Boom, Shaq Griffin has great size and blistering speed, Tre Flowers has blossomed nicely for Seattle, and Quandre Diggs came over from Detroit and has been fantastic for Seattle. This defense is not a cakewalk, but it is a far cry from what it once was. Working in Seattle’s favor is the drop off from #1 receiver Davante Adams to the rest of the pass catchers. Jimmy Graham is continents from his Saints days, and still far from his time in Seattle. Allen Lazard is the best of the bunch behind Adams, and was an end of preseason cut and cleared waivers to the practice squad only 4 month ago. He is the Packers #2 receiver with 477 yards, coming in 11 games. He does have imposing size at 6 foot 5 inches, making him a matchup nightmare. Even given Rodgers’ struggles and unproductive support after Adams, I would say the advantage goes to Green bay due to the O-Line. Ranked 6^th best this year, they set the tone. Bakhtiari and Bulaga (if he clears concussion protocols) are one of the best pairs of tackles in the league, and the interior is stout with Linsely, Turner, and Jenkins. Seattle only had 28 sacks all year. If Green Bay controls the line, the rest of the offense will click.

Outcome?: The last 8 games between Seattle and Green Bay were won by the home team. At Lambeau, the Packer win over Seattle has been nearly three touchdowns in the Rodgers era. This one follows that trend. It starts ugly before the the Packers pull away in the second half. Wilson turns over a trifecta of balls and gets harried and hassled by the pass rush while still pulling rabbits out of hats for 2 brilliant scoring tosses and number of other great plays which keep it interesting. But it is too little too late to overcome Rodgers coming back to form a bit with a semi-vintage three touchdown game, 31-21 Green Bay.