Green Bay at San Francisco

Green Bay at San Francisco

These two teams played each other in Week 12, and it was BRUTAL, a much more complete dismantling than what the 49ers handed down last week. San Francisco forced a fumble early, cashed in on a 2 yard TD, and the rout was already on. The 49ers were efficient in the pass game with 70% completion, 12+ yards per attempt, and 2 touchdowns averaging over 50 yards. On the ground, they carried 22 times for 112 yards at 5 yards a pop and got 2 scores. And no turnovers. As good as the offense was for San Fran, the defense was better. Green Bay got nothing going offensively, with Rodgers averaging a mere 3.15 yards per pass. If you deduct yardage from the 5 sacks he took, Rodgers only had 66 net passing yards, or 2 yards per attempt. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams only gained 83 yards on 24 carries. The only Packers who were threats at all in the passing game were Davante Adams and Jamaal Williams, and they averaged fewer than 6 yards per catch. Deep safety coverage negated any big plays, the defensive front was harassing Rodgers all day, and the linebackers roamed freely taking away the underneath throws and limiting yards after catch any of the few catches a Packer receiver was able to make.

After that game, San Francisco dropped two of the next three. The defense starting allowing passing yardage. Ahkello Witherspoon faded down the stretch, Dee Ford was out, and Jaquiski Tartt missed time. They were worn down, having played 3 straight months without a break. Inserting K’Waun Williams and Emmanuel Moseley for Witherspoon as the primary CBs not named Sherman and the return of the their safety shored things up against Minnesota. They only allowed 147 yards to the Vikings, and slowly but inexorably dominated them getting their first win by more than five points since hosting the Packers.

Green Bay, though, hasn’t lost since their trips to California, winning by an average of 8+ points. Those numbers were padded by a weak New York Giants game and a practice squad Vikings beat down. However, the Packers have also forged ahead through the very adversity which spawned the San Fran Meltdown. Three early turnovers against Minnesota did not create panic. An early 14-0 and halftime 17-3 deficit to Detroit turned into a 23-20 victory. Scrappy victories against the Redskins and Bears should be noted as well. This team has come up with different ways to win. When the pass rush fails to get home, the secondary has been forcing turnovers. The defense, which had been surrendering about 5 explosive plays a game up to that Week 12 game has shored up, allowing only about 3 per game since. When Aaron Rodgers can’t hit his receiver, Aaron Jones totes the ball for 100 yards. When Jones is stymied, Rodgers drops the ball in the basket down field. The fact this team is 14-3 and in the NFC Championship game with no single game where all three phases were playing their best denotes either a very dangerous team or a weak team. It is tough to decide which, but given where they have found themselves, I would lean towards dangerous.

When Green Bay has the ball: The recipe for success of late is targeting Adams in the passing game and getting Aaron Jones going on the ground. Adams set the Green Bay post-season, single-game record for receiving yards last week with 160 to go with 2 touchdowns. Since Week 10, Adams has 100 yards or at least 1 TD in all but 1 game. If he gets locked down by Sherman, it is likely that success ends. Sherman is the highest rated CB in the NFL this season. His length, confidence, and intelligence have propelled him back to form. If Adams is slowed, Lazard needs to be ready to cut loose. Lazard is 6 foot 5, and the 49ers starting corner opposite Sherman is 5 foot 9. With how well K’Waun is playing, I would not be surprised to see him on Adams and Sherman on Lazard. If they are clamped down, Jones needs to run free. But to where? As good as the Packers’ O-Line has been, the 49er defensive front is better. Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, and Arik Armstead are each hard match ups on their own and can demand a double team. But no team can effectively play 8 blockers. And even if Jones gets to the second level, Kwon Alexander and Fred Warner are two of the best sideline to sideline tacklers. This defense is perfectly built; a line which can penetrate to the backfield and free up 7 to play the pass, linebackers to play shallow zone, multiple safeties deep, and cornerbacks you can trust on an island. However, Rodgers started making perfect throws this weekend, finishing with his second best post-season grade in his career. A narrow edge goes to the 49ers due to the IT factor Rodgers ahs demonstrated.

When San Francisco has the ball: San Fran was the first team to have a post-season win by more than one score this year. The offense clicked for 27 points, also the most up to that point in the playoffs. They ran a variety of players a boggling 47 times for 186 yards, also getting 2 scores. Tevin Coleman got both touchdowns and went over 100 yards. Mostert was the #2 guy that day, gaining 58 yards on 12 carries. Jimmy G only threw 19 passes for 131 yards and an early TD. He also threw a pick, and nearly another one. After looking through this offense, Jimmy is the weak link. He gets panicky when he is in the pocket, and many of his throws were either to Kittle or the first two reads and easy slants. However, he is able to do that successfully because of the pre-snap movement, the play action, dynamic catchers, and good protection. Granted, I have also seen him go through progressions, buy time, make plays with his feet, hit the tough throws, etc. But the Packers have a defensive front which plays the pass HARD. Kenny Clark combined with the Smiths for 25 pressures last week. It is tough to sit back in the pocket against the Packers, and QBs have to make reads fast. Kittle is used for blocking, trickery, and is a phenomenal receiver. I can’t pick a player on the Green Bay defense who matches him easily, because the last time I watched King cover him Kittle went for a 60 yard touchdown catch. But King has been playing quite well since then. Jaire and Tramon can match up well with Samuel and Sanders, but those two receivers will grab some wins in the passing game as well. The real advantage for SF lies in the weakness of the linebackers in the passing game. Martinez is solid, but not a Pro Bowler by any means, and can be swallowed up in blocks and disoriented in coverage. Exploiting him in the pass game will be the key. Advantage San Francisco.

Outcome: San Francisco is deeper up front on defense, and vastly creative on offense. Personnel only, I think Green Bay’s defense can match San Francisco’s offense, but the movement creates openings and confusion which will create points for the home team. When Green Bay takes the field, I think Rodgers, Jones, and Adams will all play better than last time at Levi. I also think Graham, Lazard, Ervin, and probably MVS or Allison will each make at least one or two plays to help keep them in the game more. The wrinkles we saw against Seattle show LaFluer has some hidden cards up his sleeve, but the Ford, Bosa, Thomas, Warner, Sherman and company will create enough problems Green Bay can’t keep up. 34-21, San Francisco.