Final Forecast

Final Forecast: Just giving the match ups one more look through to see if I missed anything.

If you look at how Minnesota and GB fell to the 49ers this year, you definitely will see some great play by the West Coast team. However, you also see a lot of breaks go the 49ers way. A questionable personal foul on Davante Adams led to the strip sack/quick TD to start the week 12 rout. It was followed by Bulaga going out with injury, and Alex Light getting demolished the rest of the evening. Ill-timed drops by Allison and a catch ruled non-catch on a deep pass to Graham compounded a string of bad luck for the Green and Gold. In the Vikings game, it was still moderately close at only 17-10 favoring the 49ers when Cousins threw a terrible INT while targeting his All-pro receiver… who had an exposed Achilles tendon due to an injury in practice this week. It was soon 24-10. A bad offensive series by Minnesota led to a punt, but a quick forced 3-and-out of the 49er offense followed. However, return man Sherels muffed it, and it was anther score to San Fran. Cousins marched into 49er territory a few times, but with only 5 Cook runs after the first quarter and down 17, they were obvious passing downs. Four of the Niners six sacks were in the final frame. As good as San Francisco has been this year, and they have been fantastic, a lot of luck broke their way at the end of the season with the Rams absolutely blowing coverage to hand the game away, the no PI call to grab the #1 seed, and with the elements highlighted above in their last two games against the NFC North playoff teams. I still am confident San Francisco can win this game. Lucky teams go far. The Packers have benefited from Phantom Hands to the Face calls, injury plagued Minnesota, Detroit, and Seattle teams, and two rookie QBs leading poor supporting casts in 3 of their final 7 game to grab the #2 seed. If the Packers can play assignment-sound football on defense and Rodgers can find hot reads on offense, I can see a different outcome. I would not at all be surprised to see the Packers win, but I expect the 49ers still win, 31-28.

With Tennessee at KC, I haven’t seen anything to change this prediction. If Chris Jones is a go for KC and Jack Conklin is out for the Titans, just swap 3 points from Tennessee to KC. It is lazy on my part, but this team is deep with talented speed on offense. Hill, Watkins, and Hardman are bad enough, but Kelce elevated himself to Kittle/Gronk level last week. IF Kittle is the #1 TE ahead of Kelce, Travis has to be 1B. And the KC defense really only gave up 2 TD drives last week. Against Fuller and Hopkins and Fells, the pass defense did phenomenal, even in surrendering over 350 passing yards to Watson. The Houston ground attack was negligible. The team played lights out. Tennessee was nearly perfect last week against Baltimore, but Kansas City has a wider range of healthy weapons to play mismatch with. Tannehill will NEED to make hay against this somewhat vulnerable defense to bring the Titans back to the Superbowl, and he will need to not make negative plays or commit turnovers. I don’t see Tennessee having a deep enough stable of pass defenders or offensive weapons to win this one. 38-34, Kansas City.

Green Bay at San Francisco

Green Bay at San Francisco

These two teams played each other in Week 12, and it was BRUTAL, a much more complete dismantling than what the 49ers handed down last week. San Francisco forced a fumble early, cashed in on a 2 yard TD, and the rout was already on. The 49ers were efficient in the pass game with 70% completion, 12+ yards per attempt, and 2 touchdowns averaging over 50 yards. On the ground, they carried 22 times for 112 yards at 5 yards a pop and got 2 scores. And no turnovers. As good as the offense was for San Fran, the defense was better. Green Bay got nothing going offensively, with Rodgers averaging a mere 3.15 yards per pass. If you deduct yardage from the 5 sacks he took, Rodgers only had 66 net passing yards, or 2 yards per attempt. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams only gained 83 yards on 24 carries. The only Packers who were threats at all in the passing game were Davante Adams and Jamaal Williams, and they averaged fewer than 6 yards per catch. Deep safety coverage negated any big plays, the defensive front was harassing Rodgers all day, and the linebackers roamed freely taking away the underneath throws and limiting yards after catch any of the few catches a Packer receiver was able to make.

After that game, San Francisco dropped two of the next three. The defense starting allowing passing yardage. Ahkello Witherspoon faded down the stretch, Dee Ford was out, and Jaquiski Tartt missed time. They were worn down, having played 3 straight months without a break. Inserting K’Waun Williams and Emmanuel Moseley for Witherspoon as the primary CBs not named Sherman and the return of the their safety shored things up against Minnesota. They only allowed 147 yards to the Vikings, and slowly but inexorably dominated them getting their first win by more than five points since hosting the Packers.

Green Bay, though, hasn’t lost since their trips to California, winning by an average of 8+ points. Those numbers were padded by a weak New York Giants game and a practice squad Vikings beat down. However, the Packers have also forged ahead through the very adversity which spawned the San Fran Meltdown. Three early turnovers against Minnesota did not create panic. An early 14-0 and halftime 17-3 deficit to Detroit turned into a 23-20 victory. Scrappy victories against the Redskins and Bears should be noted as well. This team has come up with different ways to win. When the pass rush fails to get home, the secondary has been forcing turnovers. The defense, which had been surrendering about 5 explosive plays a game up to that Week 12 game has shored up, allowing only about 3 per game since. When Aaron Rodgers can’t hit his receiver, Aaron Jones totes the ball for 100 yards. When Jones is stymied, Rodgers drops the ball in the basket down field. The fact this team is 14-3 and in the NFC Championship game with no single game where all three phases were playing their best denotes either a very dangerous team or a weak team. It is tough to decide which, but given where they have found themselves, I would lean towards dangerous.

When Green Bay has the ball: The recipe for success of late is targeting Adams in the passing game and getting Aaron Jones going on the ground. Adams set the Green Bay post-season, single-game record for receiving yards last week with 160 to go with 2 touchdowns. Since Week 10, Adams has 100 yards or at least 1 TD in all but 1 game. If he gets locked down by Sherman, it is likely that success ends. Sherman is the highest rated CB in the NFL this season. His length, confidence, and intelligence have propelled him back to form. If Adams is slowed, Lazard needs to be ready to cut loose. Lazard is 6 foot 5, and the 49ers starting corner opposite Sherman is 5 foot 9. With how well K’Waun is playing, I would not be surprised to see him on Adams and Sherman on Lazard. If they are clamped down, Jones needs to run free. But to where? As good as the Packers’ O-Line has been, the 49er defensive front is better. Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, and Arik Armstead are each hard match ups on their own and can demand a double team. But no team can effectively play 8 blockers. And even if Jones gets to the second level, Kwon Alexander and Fred Warner are two of the best sideline to sideline tacklers. This defense is perfectly built; a line which can penetrate to the backfield and free up 7 to play the pass, linebackers to play shallow zone, multiple safeties deep, and cornerbacks you can trust on an island. However, Rodgers started making perfect throws this weekend, finishing with his second best post-season grade in his career. A narrow edge goes to the 49ers due to the IT factor Rodgers ahs demonstrated.

When San Francisco has the ball: San Fran was the first team to have a post-season win by more than one score this year. The offense clicked for 27 points, also the most up to that point in the playoffs. They ran a variety of players a boggling 47 times for 186 yards, also getting 2 scores. Tevin Coleman got both touchdowns and went over 100 yards. Mostert was the #2 guy that day, gaining 58 yards on 12 carries. Jimmy G only threw 19 passes for 131 yards and an early TD. He also threw a pick, and nearly another one. After looking through this offense, Jimmy is the weak link. He gets panicky when he is in the pocket, and many of his throws were either to Kittle or the first two reads and easy slants. However, he is able to do that successfully because of the pre-snap movement, the play action, dynamic catchers, and good protection. Granted, I have also seen him go through progressions, buy time, make plays with his feet, hit the tough throws, etc. But the Packers have a defensive front which plays the pass HARD. Kenny Clark combined with the Smiths for 25 pressures last week. It is tough to sit back in the pocket against the Packers, and QBs have to make reads fast. Kittle is used for blocking, trickery, and is a phenomenal receiver. I can’t pick a player on the Green Bay defense who matches him easily, because the last time I watched King cover him Kittle went for a 60 yard touchdown catch. But King has been playing quite well since then. Jaire and Tramon can match up well with Samuel and Sanders, but those two receivers will grab some wins in the passing game as well. The real advantage for SF lies in the weakness of the linebackers in the passing game. Martinez is solid, but not a Pro Bowler by any means, and can be swallowed up in blocks and disoriented in coverage. Exploiting him in the pass game will be the key. Advantage San Francisco.

Outcome: San Francisco is deeper up front on defense, and vastly creative on offense. Personnel only, I think Green Bay’s defense can match San Francisco’s offense, but the movement creates openings and confusion which will create points for the home team. When Green Bay takes the field, I think Rodgers, Jones, and Adams will all play better than last time at Levi. I also think Graham, Lazard, Ervin, and probably MVS or Allison will each make at least one or two plays to help keep them in the game more. The wrinkles we saw against Seattle show LaFluer has some hidden cards up his sleeve, but the Ford, Bosa, Thomas, Warner, Sherman and company will create enough problems Green Bay can’t keep up. 34-21, San Francisco.

Tennessee at Kansas City

Tennessee at  Kansas City

When these two last played, it was in Nashville. The quarterbacks combined for over 70% completion percentage, 5 passing touchdowns, 627 yards, and no interceptions. If you have been paying attention you can probably predict… Henry was the driving force in this win in the regular season. He ran for 188 yards on 23 carries, got into the endzone twice, and didn’t fumble. After the tape and numbers Henry has put up combined with how Kansas City clamped down the last three quarters last week, this game should be different.

Then again, Baltimore should have been able to spend time reviewing film and creating a successful game plan to clamp down and didn’t. The fact of the matter is, stopping a 250lbs running back who can outrun linebackers is more than difficult. Ryan Tannehill started the game hot, but once again passed for fewer than 100 yards in the win, but he started the game going 4/5 for 68 yards and 2 scores. After that, it was the Derrick Henry show. Tannehill was incredibly ineffective the rest of the way with a stat line of 3/10 for 20 yards, but one completion was a clutch 3^rd down conversion to AJ Brown in the red zone, his only catch. What we have seen Tennessee do is play smart football with the pass, hitting opportunistic deep balls and targeting high percentage slants in the short game. On defense, they attempted to overwhelm the Baltimore defensive front while not giving up contain on Lamar (it worked about as well as could be hoped). Sticky man coverage to the outside by Jackson helped limit Brown, and pesky safety and linebacker play made big wins against the tight ends.  Tennessee is rolling in Kansas city as a model of efficiency.

The Chiefs are waiting for them with a team which averaged over a point a minute the last 40 minutes of game time. A huge kick return and two pass plays scored their first TD. A fake punt foiled by a perfect Daniel Sorensen tackle put Patrick Mahomes and company 33 yards from pay dirt, and a quick score. A forced fumble on the ensuing kickoff (credited to the same Daniel Sorensen) gave KC only 6 yards to 6 points. In four minutes, the Chiefs went from stuck in mud to only a field goal behind. Mahomes wasn’t sacked all day and threw 5 touchdowns. After the defense gave up two touchdowns in the first quarter, as well as a blocked punt for a Houston TD, the Chiefs only gave up 10 points the rest of the game. The next 4 drives resulted in 2 punts, a failed trick play (mentioned above) and a missed field goal. An early 3^rd quarter score faded from memory quickly as the Chiefs put the finishing touches on a 51 point day.

When Tennessee has the ball: As it is “win or go home” time, it makes sense for Henry to be ridden this hard. He missed week 16 with a bum hamstring, but has averaged over 30 touches and more than 200 scrimmage yards a game since. As far as Vrabel is concerned, they earn a week of rest if the win this week, so may as well let Henry and the opposing defense grind each other to dust. Again, watch for Tannehill to take deep shots when the defense backs crowd the line to stop the run. Kansas City needs to take advantage of an offensive line which surrendered 56 sacks in the regular season. They don’t need to sell out to get the QB; play the run as you get upfield. Chris Jones and Frank Clark are their best players, but the DC loves to blitz. Three defensive backs have sacks, and five defensive line/edge players have at least 4 sacks. KC ranks 12^th in sack percentage for the year, as well as 13^th for passing yards per game. The Chris Jones injury becomes even more important in this game as Tennessee is a much better and more consistent running team than Houston. As good as the KC front line is, their secondary ranks very poorly overall, dropping many interceptions and forcing few incompletions. With Juan Thornhill out, the pass defense is far worse, as he was the second best graded player. Tyrann Mathieu, a perennial back end enforcer and ball hawk, will have to play lights out against this big play defense, because Bashaud Greeland and Kendall Fuller are not playing well. While the surface stats look good, with 16 interceptions from 8 different players, the back end appears feast or famine. AJ Brown had one of the most efficient rookie seasons for a receiver ever, and could feast on underneath routes and the occasional deep pop, especially if he get put against Sorensen deep. Dion Lewis catching out the back field is also a wrinkle to watch. Advantage Tennessee.

When Kansas City has the ball: An absolute workshop was put on by Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ offense in quarters 2, 3, and 4 of their divisional round game. The Kelce connection was on fire, propelling the team forward and kickstarting the comeback. Even when Damien Williams caught the first score, it was because Kelce blocked the crap out of the linebackers. In the second quarter, Mahomes targeted Kelce eight times. 5 were completed for 63 yards and three touchdowns. Two were DPI calls for 43 yards. Only one counted as an incomplete pass. Step one in slowing down this offense is cover Kelce and Hill. There are so many weapons to burn you in this offense, but taking away Kelce is where is all begins. Rashaan Evans has the athleticism to stay with Kelce, but he isn’t the best at coverage overall. Kevin Byard is best ball hawking in the back as a top tier safety, so he may be more necessary in the backend instead of matched up on a man. Kenny Vaccaro or a healthy Jayon Brown are other picks. Adoree’ Jackson needs to continue to take away burners, in this case Tyreek Hill. Matching up one of the top CBs in the game with a guy who can score with any touch is a best bet. From there, you still need that defensive front to do even more than what they did against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. While the pass rush created pressure, and the Titans won handily, Jackson slipped out of the pocket a LOT. Mahomes can do the same. Casey, Simmons, Evans, and Harold Landry are going to be critical at balancing sizzling pressure against lane discipline. A shallow zone with 2 LBs or hybrid players could help prevent running plays from both the backs and Mahomes while limiting quick passes to the middle of the field. Advantage Kansas City.

Outcome: Kansas City showed last week why I have trouble betting against them. They can always score. Unlike Baltimore, Mahomes has a plethora of mismatch options in Kelce, Watkins, Hill, and the speed of Mecole Hardman in the passing and jet sweep game. LeSean McCoy and Williams are still a good combo of backfield weapons as well. Tennessee doesn’t appear to have enough depth of talent to take out everyone, meaning Mahomes will find the open guy and get the points. Can Tennessee keep up with the Chiefs? I think they can, if Henry is still able to carry this team. The best option for a Tennessee victory is grinding out long drives for points and wearing down the KC defense, while also hitting a deep pass with a great enough frequency to pull Mathieu back from the box. I don’t think Tennessee can continue to limit enough plays to stay in this one and ultimately fall behind in the second half. Tannehill falls back to reality a bit, and a 4^th quarter pick followed by a Chief TD drive ends any realistic hope for a comeback. Chiefs go to the Superbowl, 37-31.

Championship Weekend

Another good weekend of football, with each game playing out very differently. San Francisco and Minnesota played out like a fading boxer attempting to usurp a champion. The Vikings faded as the champ kept landing punch after punch. Tennessee at Baltimore played out like Rocky 4, with the underdog definitively showing they could take a win most people didn’t anticipate. Houston at Kansas City was like watching Creed II, with Houston in the role of Drago and KC as Adonis. Houston wasn’t trusted, but after breaking the Chiefs in the beginning, Kansas City showed the heart of a true champ, coming back hard, not giving up, and historically beat their opponent. Green Bay and Seattle was the initial Rocky film; even with doubt cast on the winner due to a controversial decision (game sealing first down), the whole bout was entertaining and went the distance, the closest outcome of the whole docket.

In all, fans were treated to a successful beat down, the comeback of the year, the upset of the year, and a comeback which fell just short. Derrick Henry is in Adrian Peterson territory with over 1,200 rushing yards rushing yards in an 8-game span. Lamar Jackson had the best combination of passing and rushing by a QB in the playoffs. Mahomes and Kelce combined with Williams for the most productive 2^nd Quarter in history, and the best comeback ever by going from trailing 24 to winning by 20. The 49ers shut down the team which shut down the vaunted Saints the week before. Green Bay avenged the playoff collapse from 5 years ago. Individual performances were great, and the overall weekend was thoroughly entertaining. We are now facing Championship weekend.

Reaction to Seattle at Green Bay

Russell Wilson kept the Seahawks in this game. Well, either that of Mike Pettine softening man coverage did. Were there any holding penalties in this game? Elton Jenkins got away with one on Aaron Jones second TD run, and Zadarius was asking for flags all night. My wife asked for a more exciting game at half time, and she got it. Lynch ran for 2 TDs making it 4 in three games since coming out of retirement. He earned some skittles. Davante Adams was clutch for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers swapped between frustrating and jaw dropping tonight. And of course this game became a one score win. With these two teams, that makes sense. Now the Pack travels back to Levi Stadium to face the 49ers.

Reaction to Houston at Kansas City

My young daughter at the end of the first quarter said Kansas City "is really bad!" I told her to be patient. At 24 unanswered points to start the game,  my brother said "It's over." 51 points later, the Chiefs put the Texans to rest.
Mahomes and Kelce is a rare combination, the likes of we have previously only reserved for Brady-Gronk. Kelce was the main target, coming in motion pre-snap.
Kelce appeared to be the motor of today's Chiefs team. He had three scoring snags while no one else had more than 3 catches.
This one turned quick. A huge kick return, a failed fake punt, a questionable PI, a turnover. Three quick TDs, a d Houston never got off the ropes the rest of the night.

Seattle at Green Bay

Seattle at Green Bay

Holmgren left GB for Seattle in 1999 after his storied tenure with Favre, career Green Bay rushing leader Ahman Green came to GB in a 2000 trade from Seattle, former Favre backup Matt Hasselbeck, my personal Mandela Effect (I swear his name was Hasselback!!!), goes to Seattle in 2001, the last year the Seahawks are in the AFC, only to throw a pick-six in the 2003 NFC Wildcard game against the Packers after declaring “We want the ball and we are going to score” at the OT coin flip, current Seahawks GM John Schneider leaves GB in 2010 and drafts Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson to supplant former GB backup QB Matt Flynn in 2011, the same Russell Wilson throws a controversially called touchdown in the Fail Mary game in 2012 which brought an end to the replacement refs, the 2014 NFC title game… how have these two teams developed so much history when the ‘Hawks were an AFC team less than 2 decades ago? The truth is, little of that matters this weekend. So few players remain on each team from that title game 5 years ago (and Jimmy Graham swapped sides). The Legion of Boom is gone to San Francisco, Baltimore, retirement. The front seven still has Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright, but the rest of the faces are changed. On offense, Lynch is back (sort of?) and Russell Wilson is still there, but these are markedly different teams from that title game. Still, these two teams have played each other each of the past 6 years, counting playoffs. Both are also tough in tight games, being a combined 19-3 in game decided by 8 points or fewer this season. Seattle is also angling for their remarkable 9^th win on the road this year.

When Seattle has the ball: At this point, it is Russell’s team. 5 years ago, the typical Seattle game plan was dominate on the ground and stifle the enemy with the defense. Now the offense all flows through DangeRuss. He will buy time with his legs, scramble, and has the arm strength and touch to make all the throws expected of a franchise QB. He is efficient, but his worst games are against the Packers, and he has yet to win at Lambeau. The Green Bay blitzers are dangerous themselves, with the free agent Smith Bros combining for more than 25 sacks. Kenny Clark has 6 this season from the tackle spot, and Dean Lowry tag teams with Tyler Lancaster to plug and solidify the middle. With Seattle ranking as the worst playoff O-Line by far at 27^th overall, the Packers may be bringing a lot of pressure. OC Brian Schottenheimer made the offense more high octane, but injuries to RBs Chris Carson, CJ Prosise, and Rashad Penny have pushed the team to resign Marshawn Lynch. Lynch and Travis Homer combined for only about a yard per carry last week, and didn’t do much better against the 49ers the previous week. If the D tackles can play the run while pass rushing, this offense could stall fast. But there are some dynamic pass catchers to watch. Combine phenom and (not really) 1.6% body fat wonder DK Metcalf is a size and speed freak the likes of which we have rarely seen. He broke out for 7 catches and 160 yards and a touchdown last week by employing his 6 foot 4, 230 lbs, 4.33 40-yard dash running, 27 rep benching, 40.5 inch vertical jumping body to work. Tyler Lockett, originally used mainly in gadgets and in the return game, has been phenomenal with Wilson, at one point boasting a career passer rating when targeted by Wilson in the near perfect range. He is undersized, but is more than effective as a receiver with speed and shiftiness to spare. However, the Packers backend matches up well. Kevin King is finally playing his best football for the Green and Gold, and at 6 foot 3 with 4.4 speed and much better tested agility than Metcalf, he may be the perfect match. King isn’t even near the top cover man on the team. Jaire Alexander has had a great year. He matches Lockett in size, suddenness, and speed. The perfect one-on-ones. Tramon Williams is a top rated corner this year, especially out of the slot, defying Father Time as the oldest defensive back in the league this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see DC Mike Pettine switch up the coverage, putting Alexander on Metcalf and King on Lockett while using a safety shading over the top. If it was anyone but Wilson (or an MVP) under center, I would think Green Bay has a huge advantage here. As it is, advantage still goes to the Pack.

When Green Bay has the ball: At home again! This is the first home divisional game at Lambeau since the Dez Bryant game five years ago, the week before the infamous melt-down at Seattle. Green Bay’s offense has oddly been powered more by the Aaron pounding the rock than throwing it. Aaron Jones tied for league leads in rushing TDs (with Henry) and total TDs (with McCaffrey). His 19 TDs tie for second most in a season in franchise history. When he or teammate Jamaal Williams have a 100 yard rushing or catching day, the Packers are undefeated at 7-0 this year. The Seahawks boast two great linebackers in Wright and Wagner. Wagner has consistently played at an All-Pro level for half a decade. Wright has the team lead in interceptions this year. They are rangy, and Wagner doesn’t miss tackles. Aaron Rodgers has not been what we are used to seeing from him. He couldn’t hit the grass if he was aiming for it against Detroit in the first half of the season finale. But he still came through with two clutch TD throws when needed to win the game and grab the second seed. His still rarely throws interceptions, but he has thrown picks the last two games. While Seattle no longer can claim to possess the Legion of Boom, Shaq Griffin has great size and blistering speed, Tre Flowers has blossomed nicely for Seattle, and Quandre Diggs came over from Detroit and has been fantastic for Seattle. This defense is not a cakewalk, but it is a far cry from what it once was. Working in Seattle’s favor is the drop off from #1 receiver Davante Adams to the rest of the pass catchers. Jimmy Graham is continents from his Saints days, and still far from his time in Seattle. Allen Lazard is the best of the bunch behind Adams, and was an end of preseason cut and cleared waivers to the practice squad only 4 month ago. He is the Packers #2 receiver with 477 yards, coming in 11 games. He does have imposing size at 6 foot 5 inches, making him a matchup nightmare. Even given Rodgers’ struggles and unproductive support after Adams, I would say the advantage goes to Green bay due to the O-Line. Ranked 6^th best this year, they set the tone. Bakhtiari and Bulaga (if he clears concussion protocols) are one of the best pairs of tackles in the league, and the interior is stout with Linsely, Turner, and Jenkins. Seattle only had 28 sacks all year. If Green Bay controls the line, the rest of the offense will click.

Outcome?: The last 8 games between Seattle and Green Bay were won by the home team. At Lambeau, the Packer win over Seattle has been nearly three touchdowns in the Rodgers era. This one follows that trend. It starts ugly before the the Packers pull away in the second half. Wilson turns over a trifecta of balls and gets harried and hassled by the pass rush while still pulling rabbits out of hats for 2 brilliant scoring tosses and number of other great plays which keep it interesting. But it is too little too late to overcome Rodgers coming back to form a bit with a semi-vintage three touchdown game, 31-21 Green Bay.

Houston at Kansas City

Houston at Kansas City

As noted in the beginning, Houston already has a win against Kansas City, in Arrowhead. In was the last game in a harsh 4 week period for the Chiefs. They were without Tyreek Hill, had a hobbled Mahomes, and Chris Jones and Frank Clark weren’t at 100% either. The Chiefs went 2-2 in that span with a negative point differential and the offense coughing up 6 turnovers (while the defense forced 6, I might add). Houston ran for 192 yards, the third most this season against Chiefs (the most being a 225 yards from the Titans in a three point loss and second most being 203 in a five point win over Baltimore). Houston controlled the clock, accounting for over 39 minutes in time of possession. The Chiefs took 55 offensive snaps to Houston’s 89.  In the months since, Chiefs have gotten healthy, their offense is humming, and the defense has really taken a step up in the ranks the last 6 weeks, all wins where they have allowed 69 total points. Andy “The Punt-Pass-And-Kick Walrus” Reid claims he has a whole book of unscouted plays to employ.

Houston barely avoided a wild card upset compliments of a simple physics experiment (an object in motion stays in motion unless acted upon by an equal and opposite motion, and Matt Milano was equal and opposite to Siran Neal, which allowed Watson to stay up). Deshaun Watson clung to the ball, avoided injury, and made the play of the game. The Texans fought the Bills hard after a slow start, and came back to take the lead, and eventually win in overtime. It was ugly. Well, not all of it. Watson completed 20 of 25 passes at nearly 10 yards per attempt, and rushed for over 50 yards. The defense was pretty good outside of the Josh Allen trick play TD. The offense should get back burner Will Fuller to open things up for Hopkins more. Houston was maddeningly inconsistent throughout the season, playing eventual 13-3 Saints tight before barely beating Jacksonville by 1, losing to Carolina the week before hanging 50 on Atlanta, then beating New England before getting demolished by Denver. So who will show up? I honestly don’t know.

When Houston has the ball: Don’t look at me, I haven’t a clue what it going on with this team. The Texans O-Line came in only ahead of Seattle and the Bills in efficiency for playoff qualifiers, and did it show. Watson was under attack, getting sacked 7 times, but only for a total of 28 yards, at least. The Chiefs’ defensive front will bring pressure under Steve Spagnuola with creative and timely blitzes to go with pressure up the gut from Chris Jones. But Watson was still accurate under pressure last game, converted plenty of third down throws, and made the biggest play when it was needed. Hopkins wasn’t amazing, especially in the first half, but finishing with 6 catches on 8 targets for 90 yards against Tre’Davious White is a good day. Watching him against Kansas should be much more exciting as the Chiefs don’t have a DB of White’s caliber. Fuller and Stills are both fast, and the loss of Juan Thornhill should not be understated. He was explosive for that defense, and allowed everyone in front of him to play relaxed. Tyrann Mathieu is still a smart and gritty player, but he lacks the athleticism of his teammate. Duke Johnson is an all-purpose back, and after seeing the day Aaron Jones had a few month ago against this defense, he must be excited to be deployed in the passing game. Carlos Hyde needs to tote the rock with an aggressiveness against this team, and wear them out. I would say Houston has a slight advantage.

When Kansas City has the ball: You will witness magic from this team. There is so much speed and power here. Tyreek Hill is called Cheetah for a reason. Look on Youtube for his 200 meter run compared against the 200 meter Olympic finals in Rio. He comes in 6^th, three hundredths of a second from bronze. No DB can stick with him one-on-one, and safety coverage over the top is necessary for when his man falls behind. Mahomes can throw the ball to anywhere from anywhere, as potent as Aaron Rodgers ever was, but without the restraint and fear of interceptions. Rodgers doesn’t throw over the middle when a safety is there, but Mahomes will burn a missile between everyone to get it to his receiver. And bringing Watt and McKinney from the edge is a dangerous play, as Mahomes is as nimble as Rodgers ever was, too. The Texans defensive line must bring consistent pressure to rush throws while also holding lane integrity. Travis Kelce has been the second best tight end for years it seems, first behind Gronk, now behind Kittle. He is a dangerous weapon only the best of linebackers can consistently cover, and overshadows most DBs. Sammy Watkins is a fantastic second option, with speedy Mecole Hardman behind him. Gadget plays and various routes and pre snap motion is child’s play for this offense. And while the stats aren’t gaudy for the backfield, Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy need to be accounted for with 1300+ scrimmage yards and 12 TDs. The Texans will need to remain true to assignment and play near perfect to win. Chiefs have the easy advantage.

Outcome?: This is the first game I have picked the higher seed to win. The Houston offense won’t control the clock as well this time, Watson is going to be forced to put up points in obvious passing situations, and the Chiefs offense will hardly even be slowed down. Chiefs never look back as they rack up points. 37-17, and welcome back to the Conference Championship, Andy Reid.

Fast Reaction: Tennessee at Baltimore

With a final score of 28-12, this one was a surprise to most fans. Not me. I saw Tennesse as a team who could get ahead of Baltimore and push them to pass. They didn't need to. Running probably would have gotten them back in the game. But the pressure to score fact built, and two picks and a strip sack stalled and held back the Ravens.

That was Obvious: Ingram was ineffective as a running with his calf taped and massaged for much of the first half. He never seemed recovered from the end of season injury.

Strangest Result: Tennessee wins back to back games with under 100 passing yards? I did not expect that. Tannehill was impressive throwing to AJ Brown since taking over, but the receiver was held to 9 yards on 1 catch.

Should-a Known: When Lamar Jackson was forced to throw, he had three turnovers. He wasn't deemed a QB by many teams in the draft. When utilized to his game he is a great team leader from under center, but he was out of his main element. Still, 300+ passing and 100+ rushing yards show his ability.

Turning Point: A Derrick Henry 66 yard rush was followed by a TD pass by the running back. With a 15 point lead, Tennessee had the Ravens playing a brand of football they hadn't played since week 4.

Fast Reaction: Minnesota at San Francisco

With a San Francisco 27-10 victory, I wanted to point out a few observations.

That was Obvious: The 49ers defense had pressure on Cousins for about half the dropbacks. They sacked him 6 times and were in his face for handfuls of other pass plays.

Strangest Result: After being one of the best with the play action in the regular season, Cousins was incredibly ineffective. Outside of a 41 yard touchdown to Diggs, Cousins seemed to never stress the 49er defense.

Should-a Known: Dalvin Cook did nothing against the 49er defense on the ground or in the short passing game. But a stat I hadn't read until just before the game would have changed my prediction; Cook had over 1,000 rushing yards outside the tackles. With the disruptive and penetrating line led by Ford and Bosa, and Armstead is no slouch, Cook couldn't even get to the outside cleanly. He ended with 9 rushes for 18 yards. He also had 6 catches for only 8 yards.

Turning Point: When Marcus Sherels mishandled his second punt, he pushed his luck too far. The ball hit the ground and the 49ers fell on it. A quick TD pushed the game too far out of reach based on the game up to that point.

Tennessee at Baltimore

Tennessee at Baltimore

1967 called, and it approves of this game. Welcome to the ground and pound. There is the Earl Campbell type rusher (but even BIGGER) in Derrick Henry on one side, and a creative rushing attack featuring two 1,000 yard rushers in Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram on the other. Not satisfied with amazing running performances, both teams employ explosive and opportunistic passing attacks with both starting QBs at #1 and 2 in TD %, in the top 3 of passer rating and top 4 in Adjusted yards per pass attempt per Pro Football Reference. The O-Lines are phenomenal with Baltimore at 2 and Tennessee at 8. The defenses may be lacking in star power outside of the Baltimore DBs, but they are effective.

The Marcus Peters midseason trade worked out for Baltimore. They have won every game since the trade, and their points allowed dropped from 23.3 to 14.2 since, and passing yards from 270 per game to 170. And during that stretch of 10 game they played 5 against playoff qualifiers with an average point differential in those games of more than 2 TDs. Picking up Earl Thomas, though not the same player as five years ago, has helped stabilize the back end. Matt Judon and Tyus Bowser combined for 14.5 sacks and 5 forced fumbles, as well as a scoop and score. Greg Roman skillfully adapted his Colin Kaepernick offense from the three year barnstorm tour in San Francisco to Lamar Jackson’s style. Mark Ingram, a Free Agent steal in this offense, keeps teams honest in the run and Hollywood Brown’s speed coupled with Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle, and Haden Hurst make this offense tough to slow down. No one protected the left side better than Ronnie Stanley. And Justin Tucker is worth twice what he is paid.

Tennessee has become a charming postseason darling. Switching Tannehill in for Mariota got the pass offense going in ways it had never been under the second overall pick. After a 35-32 win against Kansas City before their bye week, people got hopeful. 3 straight wins got people excited. But back-to-back losses to Houston and New Orleans quelled some hype before a season finale pounding of the divisional champs got Tennessee a spot in the dance, and they are cutting loose. Derrick Henry has the perfect complement in shifty receiving back Dion Lewis. Tannehill can launch the ball to phenom rookie AJ Brown. Delanie Walker still has some juice and Corey Davis is still a big-bodied, talented, first round pick (he just probably should have gone in the second). The O-line has great pieces. They averaged 30 points in Ryan Tannehill starts. The defense’s most recognizable names come from New England in Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler. But don’t sleep on Middle Tennessee State grad Kevin Byard leading other draft picks Rashaan Evans, Harold Landry, Adoree Jackson, and Jurrell Casey. The only reason these players aren’t well known is because they play for Tennessee. Jackson was lauded as a phenom out of USC, Casey is one of the best lineman in the game, and Byard collects picks like we used to collect Pokemon cards in the late 90’s. While not a high performing defense by rank, they are good. I am a firm believer you cannot measure a team in a vacuum. The offense was ineffective under Mariota. That blows back on the defense in field position, time on the field, etc. In the latter end of the season, they scored 30 points a game, pushing opponents to be more aggressive.

When Tennessee has the ball: Vrabel needs to trust himself and his team. Not a lot of variety might happen, but it should produce. Henry is going to run. When he does, can a mostly average Baltimore front 7 stop them? That is a tall task. Once Henry breaks into the secondary, can the DBs get him down? Brown and the running backs will be targeted both shallow and deep (maybe some Davis and Walker, too). With the ball in the air, can Marlon Humphrey work with Thomas, Jimmy Smith, and Peters to limit Tannehill? After producing the best Passer Rating in the regular season, the Tennessee QB threw for a mere 72 yards on 8-15 attempts. Baltimore was 21^st in YPR allowed. Henry is a massive man who is tough to stop. Run it, use play action, and don’t fall behind by too much. This team already knocked off the most Legendary dynasty in NFL history (though not at its apex). They can now vanquish the most potent team of the year. Advantage goes to Tennessee.

When Baltimore has the ball: Fireworks. Plain and simple. Even when running the ball this team is exciting. The Ravens led the league in yards per rush compliments of Jackson and Ingram. But don’t sleep on Gus Edwards, a 700 yard rusher at 5.3 per attempt. Where Jackson is like quicksilver, Ingram and Edwards average 5 foot 11 and 230 lbs. The O-Line are Movers and Maulers. With a good but not great front 7, Tennessee will be hard pressed to generate pressures and sacks and negative runs. Baltimore is going to score on the ground as well as with opportunistic passes to Hollywood and Andrews, who had 17 TD catches between them. But Ingram and receivers Willie Snead and Miles Boykin have 13 TD catches themselves, so Jackson can distribute the ball to others as well. The Titan defensive backs will need to play tight in man and aware in zone. Protect the middle of the field. This offense has shown to be too volatile to completely stop. Just slow it. Advantage Baltimore.

Outcome?: This game should be fun. I can see anything from a close Tennessee win to a huge Baltimore win. There are factors to consider. Will Ingram be healthy? After a calf strain, he may be limited in snaps or explosion. Will Baltimore be rusty? They haven’t really played in almost a month. Is this Titan offense for real? When we saw Tannehill in Miami he wasn’t like this; was the New England game evidence of a regression to the norm? Can Tennessee replicate the early season Cleveland victory? The last Baltimore loss was by 15 point, and Cleveland forced two interceptions and another fumble while limiting Brown, Andrews, and Ingram to a long gain of 18 and sacking Jackson 4 times. The easy answer is Baltimore wins this one going away, but Vrabel learned to be flexible and creative from Belichick. I believe Tennessee will run well and hit a few timely passes, scoring enough points and eating enough time to push Baltimore to pass more than they are comfortable. Ingram plays, but still a bit hobbled, and Gus Edwards doesn’t quite fill his shoes. Hollywood is minimized by Adoree Jackson’s speed, and Rashaan Evans helps neutralize Andrews. Henry outrushes the whole Baltimore team, gaining almost 200 yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries. And to cap it off, Justin Tucker’s 55 yarder goes wide left as time expires, failing to tie it up. 27-24, Titans win.

Minnesota at San Francisco

Minnesota at San Francisco

At first glance, this may seem a bit of a cake walk for the Gold Diggers (not a great nickname?). The 49ers sit in the first seed with home field advantage through-out the playoffs compliments of a (tied) NFC best 13-3 record. They possess the 2^nd best scoring offense and 8^th best scoring defense, as well as both top 5 in yards, and an NFL best against the pass. They have the second best rushing attack with the most TDs on the ground in the league powered by a three headed monster of speed. The O-Line has three first rounders, they employ the best TE in the league, their starting wideouts are a dynamic and underrated weapons in 2^nd round rookie Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders. The defense boasts the best CB of the decade in Richard Sherman coupled with K’Waun Williams and Ahkello Witherspoon, who both have been phenomenal. Fred Warner made a too-little-too-late case as NFC Defensive Player of the Year by going on an 8 game stretch with 76 tackles, 3 sacks, a pick six, 7 passes defensed, and 2 fumbles. But he won’t get any votes because of Chandler Jones, Danielle Hunter, Shaq Barrett, and other such sack monsters. Also, the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year leader is in front of him. 2^nd overall pick Nick Bosa anchors three other 49er first round D-Linemen and offseason steal Dee Ford.

Minnesota came to the playoffs riding two losses, including an ugly loss at home against division rivals Green Bay. But Head Coach Mike Zimmer wisely chose to rest banged up starters Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, and the offense clicked just enough last week to knock the favored Saint out of the playoffs, in New Orleans. Kirk Cousins made big throws when they were needed, Thielen looked far more dynamic than two weeks earlier when he was shut out vs the Packers, and Dalvin Cook appeared unmarred by the shoulder injury which cost him the last two games of the regular season. Danielle Hunter continued his sacks-capades with a strip-sack of Brees to help force overtime. The stacked defensive backfield end shut down the historic Brees-Thomas connection, though facing backup QB Taysom Hill was a different story. The LBs limited Alvin Kamara, and the Saints team which came in scoring points at will was held to only 20.

As far as this matchup goes, however, it is far more challenging than a quick perusal of overall records and standings might suggest. While Minnesota dropped the last two games of the season, they were 10-4 up to that point with the only losses since Week 4 being a 3 point loss at Kansas City and a back and forth struggle against playoff bound (and nearly divisional champs over San Francisco) Seattle. Injuries sapped Minnesota at the end. Thielen was hobbled and Cook out against GB, and starting LBs Kendricks and Barr got hurt in that game. Zimmer rested his team week 17 and still only barely lost. By the playoff game, the team was feeling good, and it showed. The Saints were held to their fewest points since Week 10, Brees barely cracked 200 yards passing. Thomas , fresh off a record setting receptions season, caught 7 balls for 70 yards. Taysom Hill, a backup QB, had the only TD catch, led the team in rushing, and had the biggest throw on the night for his team. The Vikings defense got Brees to the ground 3 times, and harried him far more into his only 2 turnover game of the season. Cook had over 30 touches, 130 yards, and 2 TDs, and didn’t show the expected discomfort or timidity a shoulder injury would suggest as he carried the Minnesota offense for portions of the night.

The dynamic combination of Cook, Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph will be needed against a semi-faltering 49ers defense. After San Francisco gave up an average of only 137 passing yards and 12.4 points per game through the first 11 games (10 wins), they surrendered 240 passing yards and 29.4 points the last 5 weeks. Also, their forced turnovers dropped from 2.1/game to .8 per game. This huge drop in defensive stability could be the harbinger of defeat for San Fran. Keep in mind, however, the 49ers bye was in Week 4, and they were exhausted by the end of the season. A week of rest may put some spring back in their step. Also, the offense did not change production. They averaged basically 237 passing yards, 140 rush yards, and 30 points  during the course of the whole season, and during the last 5 games.

When Minnesota has the ball:  SF has given up 100 or more rushing yards in all but 4 games. Minnesota loves to run a healthy Cook. The Vikings have a stable of pass catchers rarely seen, with depth and high end talent across all positions, stressing the 49ers to cover everyone. Stefon Diggs went over 1000 yards on the season again, but hasn’t had a 100 yard receiving performance since week 8, and only has 2 TDs in that time. Is it time for a breakout? San Francisco has the ability to create a ton of pressure with only 4 rushers, and Minnesota still does not have a great O-Line, so anticipate pressure from Bosa, Ford, Buckner, and Armstead or a game plan of play action and extra blockers to stymie or confuse the defense. Minnesota has the ability to generate yards and points, but the slight edge here goes to San Francisco.

When San Francisco has the ball:  Kyle Shanahan is creative and employs his players to their strengths. At times, Jimmy G has proven to be as reckless as he is talented, throwing a bevy of picks early in the year (10 in 11 games) but actually had fewer when the team record faltered (3 in 5 games to end the year). George Kittle went from 5^th round afterthought to record holder for yardage by a tight end in a single season. He is also a blocking demon. Tevin Coleman was a change of pace back in Atlanta, and Raheem Mostert was undrafted. They combined for 1676 yards and 17 touchdowns. Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr will have their hands full attempting to cover these guys out of the back field. The O-Line, while talented, is middle of the pack, and the Viking defense just embarrassed one of the best lines in the league. Speed and size are aplenty with Viking DBS. All-Pro Harrison Smith holds the back end with Pro Bowl worthy Anthony Harris. Trae Waynes, Xavier Rhodes, and some shifty slot corners complete the pack. A decent move may be to trust Trae Waynes, their best cover corner this season, with Kittle, shift Mike Hughes and Mackensie Alexander, if they are healthy, to cover Sanders and Samuel with Rhodes, while letting the safeties play zone to protect against the run and the eventual broken tackles of Kittle. Minnesota can rob the 49ers of the matchup advantage they have enjoyed most of the year. I began writing this expecting the give a hearty edge to San Francisco, but I trust Zimmer to find the advantageous matchups and slow down the offense. Slight advantage Minnesota.

Outcome?: This all depends on Zimmer as well as the recent downturn in Viking receivers' health. With stitches in Thielen's ankle and Stefon Diggs I'll, I am wavering on my position. Minnesota has a dynamic defense which can shut down most anyone. I predicted in the beginning of the week with my family a Vikings win. I am going to hold to that. San Francisco ate through a schedule with no playoff teams until Week 10. However, they also went 3-2 against playoff teams this year, including scoring 48 against the Saints, 37 against the Packers, who the Viking scored an average of 17 points against. Their Defensive front is alarmingly great with 5 first round picks, three of them top 7 picks. Sherman is where he was during his Legion of Boom days, and starters Kwon Alexander and Jaquiski Tartt appear primed for healthy returns. Minnesota appears to be a team hungry and determined. Kirk Cousins “finally won a big game.” Zimmer was facing potential unemployment if he lost three straight. Cook looks as healthy as he was when leading the NFL in rushing with 5 100 yard games, 8 rushing TDs, and nearly 1000 scrimmage yards in the first 7 weeks. When the Vikings’ offense clicks, it is hard to stop. Minnesota wins a close one by closing out drives better than San Francisco and a return to form from Stefon Diggs, 31-30.

Welcome to the Playoffs

Welcome to the Divisional Round! An aptly named WILD-card weekend gave the world a fantastic lineup for the Divisional round. After nine straight years of at least a divisional round appearances, including eight straight years of AFC Championship game appearances, New England was ousted in the Wildcard round, dropping the Brady-Chick combo to 2-2 in the Wildcard round. San Francisco marks their first playoff game since three straight NFC Championship/SB games from 2011 to 2013, and only their fourth playoff appearance since 2002 when Jeff Garcia was throwing passes to Terrell Owens under Mariucci. Side note, San Fran won 46 games in the 8 seasons after losing Mariucci. Mariucci made the playoffs 4 times and won 60 games in 6 years. Think the 49ers should have kept him? Baltimore rides a number of record setting performances to the first seed, a first time in franchise history per my rushed research. Dynamic quarterback and probable MVP Lamar Jackson set the record for rushing yards by a QB, the team set an NFL record for rushing yards in a season, most wins in a season in franchise history, and probably a handful of other such fantastic performances. Kansas City snagged the second seed with their own video game players in Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, the first a jaw dropping passer and the second a jaw dropping speed demon at receiver. Andy Reid remains a fantastic coach with Belichick-like sustained success. After a brilliantly successful career in Philly, with 4 consecutive NFC East titles and 4 consecutive NFC Championship appearances (including a SB loss), he has coached his team as AFC West champs 4 consecutive years. The NFC’s second seed Green Bay Packers find themselves back after a injury riddle and stagnant last two years. But this isn’t the unstoppable Aaron Rodgers led offense of yester year. This is a league average offense buoyed by an opportunistic defense. But fortunately for the world, they face a familiar foe in nemesis Seattle Seahawks. These birds are also far different than the teams from the Superbowl runs of years past. Even with the return of Lynch, they no longer rely on his insane tackle breaking skills or a defense which shut down most every passer for near five seasons, the Seahawks are now airing it out to a diminutive shifty Lockett and a gargantuan monster in Metcalf. Minnesota repeated as Saint Slayers to rise from 6^th seed to divisional round players against San Francisco’s potent defense and creative offense, a test which will stress the defense and offense both. Houston survived a series of heart attacks vs. the Bills to take on a team they beat in week 6 by running the ball, something they haven’t done well recently. And Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel defeated his former mentor in Belichick to bring a swaggering ground game and explosive passing attack to bear against the Ravens. Dang this is exciting!

Let’s get down to business. After Week 10, I picked the remaining games of the 20 or so teams who had any legitimate shot at the playoffs. I got everyone right except for picking Oakland over Tennessee. So not bad there. I saw Dallas fading down the stretch and Philly taking advantage of a week schedule to clinch the NFC East. I did think Seattle would snag the NFC West, and a no called PI in the season finale vs. SF shot my predicted bracket to crap. In the wildcard round, I opened up the predictions to family as well. My wife, 6 year old daughter, 5 year old son, and one year old daughter all took chances picking winners. My 6 year old daughter went 4 for 4, and I dropped to 3-1 by predicting Buffalo would take down Houston.

After a thrilling Wildcard Round, here is to an equally exciting Divisonal Round.