Is the QB or the GM responsible?

There is often talk about surrounding QBs with good players. Odell Beckham Jr was recently in the news for ‘clarifying’ his statements while with the Giants, saying he was attempting to reprimand management for not giving Eli the players he needed to end his career successfully. We have seen teams like San Francisco get playmakers and blockers for Jimmy G, drafting Deebo Samuel, Mike McGlinchley, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, while also acquiring the likes of Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, Raheem Mostert, Trent Williams, Jordan Reed, Kyle Juszczyk, and Emmanuel Sanders, whether by trade or free agency. Baltimore has surrounded Lamar Jackson with 1st and 2nd round players in Brown, JK Dobbins, Mark Ingram, Ronnie Staley, even Dez Bryant and DJ Fluker are former 1st round picks, though not the guys they were when drafted. Atlanta has every preferred starter on offense as a 1st round pick (Ryan, Gurley, Julio, Ridley, Hurst, Jake Matthews, James Carpenter, Alex Mack, Chris Lindstrom, Kaleb McGary), doing a seemingly good job keeping Ryan supported by highly regarded players.

The question, then, brought up by OBJ is; did New York support Eli?

Following the Giants defeating the Patriots in the Super Bowl for the second time, it can be assumed New York began to look toward Eli as the centerpiece of the offense and chose to support him with well drafted offensive players. He did, after all, captain two teams to victory against the Pats. So, in the first draft following the 2011 season, the Giants picked an RB in the 1st, a WR in the 2nd, a TE and T in the 4th, and a T in the 6th. In 2013, an OL in the 1st and some back up player in later rounds. The 2014 draft, they snagged OBJ in the 1st and grabbed a center in the 2nd with a bruising RB in the 4th. Another 1st round T came in 2015 with some back up WR in the 6th and T in the 7th. 2016 Brought a 2nd round WR, a 5th round RB, and 6th round TE. 2017 a pass catching TE in the 1st, an RB in the 4th, and a T in the 6th. The Giants last off season committed to Eli involved signing Nate Solder, and drafting Barkley and Will Hernandez in the 1st and 2nd.

1st and 2nd picks are what I focus on as players considered starters, guys intended to help the team now. So how many draft picks did the Giants use to “immediately” support Eli? In 7 drafts, they drafted 3 WRs and a TE in the 1st or 2nd round, 2 RBs in the 1st round, and 4 OL in the 1st or second round (plus paid big for Nate Solder). How many of those picks were bad? OBJ is an amazing talent, Justin  Pugh was solid, Solder was a proven tackle, Will Hernandez is a league wide starter, Sterling Sharp and Evan Engram are solid starters, Barkley is one of the most talented RBS in the league. David Wilson was dynamic until injury, Rueben Randle was decent, but not a starter, and Weston Richburg signed a $10 million/year deal with SF after New York.

So no bad misses, and only Randle didn’t really live up to standards, Wilson's injury aside. Plus a bevy of late round RBs, WRs, and Ts should have provided spot and support players a plenty instead of being needed regularly, given how good the picks from the first 2 rounds were. In all, 25 of the 45 picks New York had in those 7 drafts were offensive players, and 10 1st or 2nd round picks in 7 years went to offense.

The Plight of Eli, as told by Odell Beckham, inspires me to look into two other Quarterbacks routinely said to be lacking on-field support provided by their front offices; Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers.

Wentz is a big bodied and athletic QB with a canon for a right arm. He put the Eagles in position for their Super Bowl run with MVP caliber play, showing his talent. He came into a team with recent 1st round picks at tackle (Lane Johnson) and receiver (Nelson Agholor) as well as seconds at receiver and tight end (Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz) and a 3rd at receiver (Josh Huff). This team also had Kelce, Brooks, and Peters already entrenched on their line, so Wentz came into a pretty good position. But did Philly keep him supported?

After drafting Wentz with their 1st pick, the Eagles grabbed 3 other offensive players in a back up RB and 2 late round OL. A few mid round WRs and RB followed in 2017. 2018 brought a dynamic TE in Dallas Goedert, then back up tackles in the 6th and 7th round. 2019 focused on tackle in the 1st, a talented RB in the 2nd as well as a big target WR in the 2nd, and then 1st round WR in 2020 as well as 2 good OL prospects and some more receivers in the 5th and 6th rounds. Of the 1st and 2nd picks, Johnson and Ertz are still talented starters, Agholor is still playing and has a half dozen TDs in Vegas, Goedert is a starter, as are Dillard and Sanders. Reagor is a rookie still adjusting from preseason injuries. Jordan Matthews had nearly 2,700 yards and 20 TD catches for Philly in 3 years, which is totally solid. Only JJ Arecega-Whiteside appears to be a real miss. In 8 seasons, 10 1st or 2nd round picks went to offense, but that includes 2 QBs in Wentz and Hurts this season.

Later picks produced good spot players in Wendall Smallwood and Donnel Pumphrey, OL guys in Vaitai and Mailata, and some great potential OL players for down the road, plus possible contributors at WR. There was also the acquisition of Alshon Jeffery to try and put the offense over the top. In all, I would say Philly did a pretty good job with their passer, keeping guys coming in with high projection.

Rodgers is the Old Guard, bested twice by Eli on his way to titles by the time our investigation kicks off. Rodgers had been considered by many the most talented QB ever (until Mahomes). Rodgers is in the midst of perhaps his best season ever. Given his talent and ability, but the shortcomings of the team, Green Bay is accused of seemingly doing little to surround him with talent. Since his first MVP, and his ascension to possible GOAT status (since put on a way back burner due to Brady’s rings and Mahomes WOW factor), Green Bay has appeared to do little to draft a great supporting cast around Rodgers before drafting his replacement in 2020. 

In 2012, the packers drafted an injured tackle and never-to-play QB in the 7th round. In 2013, they picked up a 2nd round RB in Lacy, future All-Pro Bakhtiari in the 4th, utility OL JC Tretter in the 4th, and then non contributors at RB in the 4th and 2 WRs in the 7th. 2014 was year of Adams in the 2nd, Richard Rodgers at TE in the 3rd, Pro Bowl C in Corey Linsley in the 5th, and two back-up, but fan favorites, in Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis at receiver. 2015 included a 3rd round WR who became a RB, a backup QB in the 5th, a FB in the 6th, and a TE in the 7th who tallied 11 offensive snaps in his career. 2016 was somehow even less helpful in a 2nd round tackle who never played even 30% of snaps in a season (for a team experiencing injuries all along the line), a 5th round WR who was targeted 15 total times in 3+ seasons, and a 6th round tackle without any stats. 2017 broke from form, with a 4th and 5th round RB who are starters, but the WRs from the 5th and 7th round, a 6th round guard, and a 7th round RB all combined stats for their careers for 4 rushes for 1 yard and 3 catches on 3 targets for 0 yards. 2018 brought in two fifth round picks with no stats (WR Moore and G Madison), and MVS and EQ in the 5th and 6th who are frustrating to GB fans. The 2019 draft snagged Elgton Jenkins as a potential future All Pro type player in the 2nd, and then Jace Sternberger in the 3rd (currently being outplayed by an undrafted free agent and a 36 year old at TE).

In 8 drafts previous to this year, 33 of 72 picks were offensive players. Only 4 were in the first two rounds; none were in the first, and Spriggs was never relied on as a contributor. Of the 3rd round and later picks, expected to either contribute eventually as starters or be good backups, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, MVS, Corey Linsley, and David Bakhtiari are all that remain, really, and maybe EQ. Recently, Jared Cook was brought in for a year, as was Marty Bennett at TE, then Jimmy Graham was made the highest paid TE in the league for his brief service. But I would say only Cook was a good signing of those three.

The rest of the players currently fleshing out the offense around Rodgers are undrafted players or those who were considered has-beens by the time they got to the Packers. Allen Lazard, undrafted WR, missed half the season and still has the fourth most receiving yards on the team. Robert Tonyan  is 3rd, 22 yards from being second, and is a top TE for TDs with 8. Lucas Patrick is undrafted and starting at RG. Marcedes Lewis has only 15 targets this season, and is the lone 1st rounder, constantly playing on 1 year deals. The Packers average slot when drafting their 11 WRs in the last 9 years is middle of the 5th round. The average TE is late 3rd. The RB average slot is mid 4th. The average draft slot for a lineman is 5th round. Meanwhile, 8 DBs were taken in the 1st or 2nd, and 5 defensive linemen. This imbalance is extraordinary.

This isn’t to say Rodgers doesn’t have good players; some develop later. Lazard has shown to be a great matchup problem, MVS has speed to burn (and hands of lead at times), Adams is one of the best in the business at creating separation and makes circus catches, Tonyan has grown so much as a pass catcher and blocker, and Jones and Williams are a great thunder and lighting pair in the backfield. 

But when looking at draft equity alone, it appears the Packers have frequently done much less for their QB than the Giants and Eagles did for theirs. The disparity in capital used to pick players for a dynamic offense is evidenced so much in the gap of 1st and 2nd rounders alone (10 for each New York and Philly vs 4 for GB) and continues in total picks used on offensive players (55+% for each New York and Philly the 2012-2018 draft and 2016-2020 draft, respectively, vs 46% for Green Bay from 2012-2019 drafts).

Make what you will of it, but I don’t think Odell was right, I think Philly fans who say Wentz doesn’t have enough to work with aren’t right, and I think the Green Bay front office will have a lot of explaining to do if Rodgers leaves them for New Orleans or New England and wins two rings in 2 seasons.

Davante Adams: Are You the Best Receiver in the NFL?

Davante Adams has had some monster games since the beginning of last season. He has three games this year with double digit receptions for 150 yards or more, and 3 multi-TD catch games. Last year, he tore up Philly for 10 catches and 180 yards, then ate up Seattle in the playoffs for 160 yards and 2 TDs before recording 138 yards against the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. He recently got press for rather supporting the statement he is the best receiver in the game, but it was without fan fare or bravado, just a relaxed confirmation.

But I don’t buy it. When I watch him play, I see acrobatic touchdowns like the toe-tapping pirouette in the corner of the endzone on Thursday Night Football in San Fran against button tight coverage, beautiful cuts to make defenders slip and fall on a catch and run TD in the playoffs against Seattle, and him humiliating DBs on third downs. But I also see him dropping a pass on the goal line against Houston, the ball bouncing off his chest and into the air for an interception against Tampa Bay, and multiple drops and an egregious fumble against Jacksonville.

If Davante Adams is the best in the game, why am I holding my breath when the ball goes his way, unsurprised when he drops or tips passes into defenders hands?

It isn’t just when he is on the field he makes an impact. When he is off the field there is a clear difference as well. If you look at how the Green bay Packers have performed in their last 25 regular season games, you get a fairly decent view of how the team plays both with and without Adams. He missed four full games in 2019 with Turf toe, and then missed all of two and some of a third game with a hamstring injury so far this year (which, even though he was on the field early in the second half, I will count since he was only targeted 3 times). How did the Pack perform?

In those 7 games of Adams being injured, the Packers went 7-0. They beat Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, and Kansas City in 2019, and Detroit, New Orleans, and Atlanta in 2020. In those 7 games, the average score was 34-23. For a look at competition level, Dallas and Oakland missed the playoffs, but competed for a spot in December, and KC and NO either made the playoffs in 2019 or almost certainly will in 2020. Atlanta is also three “What the heck happened?” 4th quarters away from being tied for 2nd in the NFC south, so I would count them as far more competitive than the record would indicate (though you are what your record says).

In the 18 games in which Adams has played, the Packers have a record of 13-5, of which seven games were against playoff of playoff competing teams. Their losses were against 2019 NFC champion Philly, LA Chargers, the 49ers, Tampa Bay, and likely-to-be-in-the-thick-of-the-playoff-hunt Minnesota. So 4 of 5 losses are against playoff caliber teams., which isn’t too shabby, expect you should be beating these teams if you want to make the Super Bowl, of course. The Packers average score in these 18 games is 23-21. Of course, the 49ers and Buccaneers whippings largely contributed to the narrow average.

What about Rodgers? He has voiced his faith in Adams as the most athletically gifted receiver he has played with. What is the impact Adams’ absence has on Aaron’s passing numbers? With Adams, Rodgers has completed 62.5% of his passes at  6.9 Yards per Attempt. He has passed for about 248.6 yards per game, and 1.83 touchdowns against .3 interceptions per game. This equates to a passer rating of 95.88. When Adams is injured, Rodgers completion goes up to 68.5%, his Yards per Attempt goes up to 9.1, his touchdowns per game increase to 2.7, interceptions drop to .1 per game, and his passing yardage increases to over 300 per game. Incidentally, he also takes fewer sacks.

To illuminate a few oddities during Adams’ absence, Aaron Jones did go off for 4 TD runs against Dallas. Allen Lazard had his coming out party off the bench in a come back against Detroit. Rodgers threw a PERFECT GAME against Oakland. Kansas City was without Mahomes. Allen Lazard had his coming out party as a starter against New Orleans. Atlanta fired Dan Quinn the next loss after the game at Green Bay (and has gone 3-1 since).

This is not an exhaustive list, nor concrete and infallible. It is not to say he is not deserving of recognition for his footwork off the LOS, his amazing touchdown count over the last few seasons (leads the league since the start of 2016 with 49 while missing 10 games). He is dangerous with the ball in his hands, and an acrobat tracking the ball in the air…

… but would I take him if I had a chance at anyone else? This is I think one of the best tests for a player. If I had the chance to pick any receiver, would I take Adams? The answer is no. Flat out no. DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, and Julio Jones immediately come to mind as players I would want first, with Stefon Diggs likely being ahead of him. Adams is then lost in a logjam of Pro Bowl caliber receivers in Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, AJ Brown, Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin, and Allen Robinson (Disclaimer!!! The list is not to shade Lockett, Metcalf, Kupp, McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Justin Jefferson, AJ Green, the multitude of receivers in Pittsburgh, or any other player not explicitly mentioned, though they weren't on the list because I would likely choose Adams before them).

From my perspective, as dynamic, talented, and successful as Davante Adams has been, he is not the best receiver in the NFL, and likely never will be.

How I did - 2019 Draft, A Year In Review

In Spring of 2019, I put together a list of players I deemed overvalued based on draft rankings, and others I found undervalued. This was not a determination of who would be a good player in the NFL, merely those who I felt would not produce an NFL career concurrent with their projected draft slot. 

So, as with all NFL Draft reviews, we should also look at how well the projection was. With a year under their belts (though 2 or 3 years is better), the question is; How Did I Do? 

(Players are in order of projected draft slot, based on a composite of Sports Illustrated, Gil Brandt, etc.)

Jonah Williams - Undervalued (Incomplete)

Analytical and technical in his play, I thought he was the best OT in the class. He was ranked as the 3rd OT in a lot of boards, and I took issue with that. However, he was the top drafted OT, supporting my views, but a missed rookie season destroyed any logical chance at review. Let's find out how he plays, though.

DK Metcalf - Overvalued (Nailed It)

My issues with Metcalf were all about scheme fit. He has more athleticism than basically any WR not named Calvin Johnson maybe ever, but the comparisons to Kevin White and Cordarrelle Patterson can also be made. Top 15 was too high, but end of the 2nd was good. End of the 2nd to Seattle was just about perfect, and I loved it for this team. Carroll and Wilson help DK play to his strengths (a simple route tree) and they will help him improve his game as time goes on. 900 yards and 7 TDs is amazing, but his sub 60% catch rate will need improvement. 

Brian Burns - Overvalued (Hit)

A higher first round pick on a guy who will only rush the passer is risky. Burns ended last season with 7.5 sacks, but only 25 total tackles. A midseason surgery on his wrist slow his play, however. I think he is a dangerous pass rusher, but not a complete player. If he rounds out his game while still becoming a top 20 pass rusher, this will have been worth it. I have my doubts, however. 

Clelin Ferrell - Overvalued (Nailed It)

I thought going first round at all was risky for him. Going top 5 was insane to me. He did not dominate. He was never graded above 70 by PFF as a pass rusher, and his play against the run was OK. He finished as a decent player, not good for 4th overall.

Cody Ford - Overvalued (Hit)

I didn't like the first round slot for him, but liked the player. Going early 2nd was a good place for him, but still a bit high. While I feel he got hosed with his block penalty in the playoff loss to Houston, there were enough problems with his play in 2019 outside that. I didn't see him as having all the tools to succeed. He was on a quick pass offense with a bunch of talented linemen.

Marquise Brown - Overvalued (Mixed Bag)

His speed and explosiveness are tough to ignore, but so is his diminutive size. I thought 33rd was too high, but going first round to Baltimore actually didn't upset me too much. I found he fit their scheme wonderfully, but first round for a one trick pony is still hard to swallow. If he expands his usefulness, first round will be worth it. I wasn't far off with a 60 target expectation (he netted 71 in 2019), but he also kept defenses from stacking against the run.  Update Edit: Brown has been underwhelming through 3 games of 2020. So far, I appear accurate in my assessment.

Dalton Risner - Undervalued (Nailed It)

Made PFF All-Rookie as a top 20 player at his position. Projected at 41st, drafted 41st, he should hold together the Denver line for a years. 

JoeJuan Williams - Overvalued (Nailed It)

He didn't seem to have any skill would would elevate him in the Pros. Going to New England seemed great for him, but still going mid-second seemed early. He appears to be getting playing time at Safety, so them drafting a super athlete there this year appears to confirm my suspicions; he just isn't athletic enough. Update Edit: He has played safety well, and did a good job against TE Waller in week 3. 

Greedy Williams - Overvalued (Hit)

I didn't like the rank Gil gave him (27th), but mid 2nd seemed okay, as long as he wasn't expected to dominate right away. He graded well, but not great. His tackling was his best trait, which is strange for a long and lean CB. Reminds me a bit of Al Harris. He needs to improve a LOT on his ball skills. 

Julian Love - Undervalued (Nailed It)

He dropped a lot in the draft, which personally upset me, but he made up for it with his high value play. He may be a starter in the secondary moving forward, though his speed may shift him to safety. (He is listed at Safety by ESPN)

Mack Wilson - Overvalued (Nailed it)

When Kirksey went down at ILB last year, Mack stepped in... and wilted. He did poorly against the run, and also the pass. He even fell from his 2nd round slot to the 5th, and somehow still failed to live up to expectation.

Chuma Edoga - Undervalued (Mixed Bag)

He ended up getting drafted about in line with his projection. he needs to mature, devoting himself to improving in the weight room. He is currently #2 RT for the Jets after they signed George Fant this offseason, but the team appears high on him. 

Hakeem Butler - Undervalued (Incomplete)

He missed his rookie season, and then the team traded for DeAndre Hopkins. He needs to improve routes/separation and clean up drops, but he also generates a ton of highlight catches. He also tested athletically better than he plays, generally. Update Edit: After being cut from AZ, he is finally signed to a roster (Philly) ahead of week 4. 

David Edwards - Undervalued (Mixed Bag)

Succeeded at Guard, but demonstrated the traits I saw. He fell in the draft, but played at the draft level where I saw him going. He did have a good line around him to help him only play his game.

Christian Miller - Overvalued (Hit)

He was ranked later 3rd, but went early 4th round, but he did still drop a bit. I think he could have gone a whole round later. Hampered by injury, he only generated 2 sacks in 7 games. He needs a healthy, full season to grade him. 

Terry McLaurin - Undervalued (Nailed It)

Not even a top 10 drafted WR, he went for nearly 1000 yards on a team with little talent and earned PFF All Rookie team. He also was drafted a bit higher than projected. He is Washington's #1 pass catcher moving forward. Update Edit: McLaurin continues to produce as Washington's only established offensive weapon. 

David Long - Undervalued (Mixed Bag)

A lot of talent in front of him stopped him from playing a lot, and he wasn't great when he did play. He went higher than projected, but needs more playing time to assess. Should be the Rams' starter in the slot this year. 

Foster Moreau - Undervalued (Nailed It)

Fell in the draft, but became PFF's All Rookie Tight end. He caught 21 of 23 passes with 5 TDs, and snagged every Red Zone target his way. Playing behind Waller limits opportunity, but he made the most of each one.

Darrell Henderson - Undervalued (Hit)

Went over a round earlier in the draft than projected, but is frequently running with the 1's in LA. He has to be used correctly. He did well for himself last year breaking tackles, but needs to also protect the ball. With Gurley leaving the Rams, he should easily eclipse last years production but the quarter pole. Update Edit: Henderson has had a season worth of good games already. If he plays even marginally well in a half dozen starts the grade with shift to Nailed.

David Montgomery - Undervalued (Nailed It)

Chicago loved him enough to draft him earlier than projected and send their #1 RB off in a trade. He can catch, block, and run hard. Over 1000 scrimmage yards and 7 TDs is pretty good. Expect a lot more this year. Update Edit: Tarik Cohen signed an extension, and then was lost for the year. This is Montgomery's backfield now.

Bryce Love - Undervalued (Incomplete)

With a de facto red shirt last year, his opportunities should increase with both Guice and Peterson gone. My projection was with a complete return to form, which is difficult to project for an ACL injury.

Isaiah Johnson - Undervalued (Incomplete)

Injuries derailed the entire year, but he was drafted barely ahead of projection.

Porter Gustin - Undervalued (Miss)

Went undrafted after barely being able to show anything pre-draft thanks to a bad ankle injury. Currently with Cleveland, he is listed as #2 DE behind Myles Garrett. Update Edit: May not start on this deep line, but he is making a great impact as a relief rusher. This may shift to hit at least because it shows the evaluation of his was largely on his failures, not on how he could be used successfully. 

Kris Boyd - Undervalued (Mixed Bag)

Drafted even later than projected, he played well as a special teamer for Minnesota last year. With the top three CBs departing in FA, he needs to show Minnesota was right to move on from their starters. However, two early draft picks from 2020 are now in his way. 

Bobby Evans - Undervalued (Hit)

Went earlier than projected, and seemed to play well, but not exceptional, as a starter. He has improvements to make, but is in a good place to show he can be a league wide starter at RT. With health back to the Rams line he should go back to Special teams. 

Ben Burr-Kirven - Undervalued (Mixed Bag)

He was drafted earlier than projected, which I picked. He excelled as a special teamer, but higher drafted players at LB and the presence of two heavily entrenched starters make his potential in Seattle limited. 

Germaine Pratt - Undervalued (Hit)

Cincy valued him better than the projections, taking him over 3 rounds earlier. Showed continued improvement for the Bengals as the season progressed. He should continue his improvement, largely against the run.

Trace McSorely - Undervalued (Incomplete)

He is redshirting, and barring an injury will never play QB for this team, most likely. However, his skill set is a poor impression of Lamar Jackson, and he should do fine as the back up. 

David Sills V - Undervalued (Miss)

Projecting late round WRs is tough. Sills went undrafted, stayed on the Bills practice squad, and was looking like a 53 man roster player for the Giants before a fractured foot. Not really below projection, but I thought he would do better.

Isaiah Buggs - Overvalued (Nailed It)

He just doesn't succeed when he isn't surrounded by great talent and feasting on weak talent. Even though he dropped in the draft below projection, he will likely not be a starter by any means. 

Sione TakiTaki - Undervalued (Mixed Bag)

While he was drafted above projection, he was little more than a special teamer and spot defender. He did quite well when he did play, but very little tape to view. 

Alex Barnes - Undervalued (Miss)

Not even listed as a practice squad member, Barnes should have stayed at K State one more year. 

Darwin Thompson - Undervalued (Hit)

The Chiefs keep getting dynamic RBs. Darwin is a mismatch tool, and he has had continued success as a relief player. The drafting of CEH in the first will continue to limit Darwin's role, however. 

Cody Thompson - Undervalued (Miss)

Looking to be a practice squad player for Seattle, a team with a lot of WR talent in front of him. If he stops projecting his routes with the way he comes off the line, he may be able to actually make it as a support role WR. 

TL;DR... I feel I did quite well. My evaluation was fitting for 19 of 23 players who I determined we can make a full assessment of. 

I didn't grade myself as having missed until Porter Gustin (who was hampered by injury and has made a position change), and then 3 offensive skill players who were, at best, borderline draftable. My projection for these players was maybe a roster spot, but likely PS last year and roster this year. David Sills V may yet prove me right, and Cody Thompson has a chance.

There were a lot of incomplete or mixed bag grades, too (11). 4 players were injured the majority of the season, and a lot of Mixed Bag are due to solidified starters ahead of the drafted player. Hakeem Butler may yet shift to miss as he has since been cut from AZ's squad and not even on a practice squad at this point. Jonah Williams, David Long, Sione TakiTaki, and Chuma Edoga, Isaiah Johnson, and David Edwards may move to hits if they become decent starters. Ben Burr-Kirven, Trace McSorely, Kris Boyd, and Bryce Love may still have to wait, which, as largely late rounders, still isn't a miss yet. 

Then come the good evaluations. I hit on 9 and Nailed 10 evaluations. These are mostly players whose seasons demonstrated better ability than projections dictated. However some (eg, Hollywood Brown, DK Metcalf) are those who maybe were projected highly, but the situation they were in fit their talent in an excellent way for them to succeed. A lot of Alabama players were worse than projected, which I rightly determined, and Clelin Ferrell at #4 was an overdraft at this point, with former teammate Dexter Lawrence showing himself as the better Clemson product thus far. David Montgomery, Terry McLaurin, Foster Moreau, and Julian Love appear especially good choices. 

Which Team Won the Draft?

I have avoided the INSANELY WAY TO EARLY INITIAL REACTION TO WHO WON THE DRAFT by waiting about a month. Now I am only in the WAY TO EARLY REACTION boat.
I agree looking at the draft within mere weeks of it occurring, before anyone even practices, before games start, and before a few years in to gauge assimilation, growth, and development to the pro field is not the best way to determine a winner. But I love making projections, so I took the time early on to discover who I found to be over drafted, under drafted, and which team did the best job of snagging players I anticipate are to be good value.

My formula is very simple. If I feel the player drafted is a great deal at that slot relative to projections, they get 8 points. If they were vastly over drafted, -10. A good but not amazing pick, +2, and a bad but not terrible pick, -4. A questionable pick based only on needs and impact nets -1 (for instance if Tampa Bay had drafted Cole Kmet in the third round with OJ Howard, Gronk, and Brate on the roster). This is incredibly simple, but I think it will grade things out fairly well.

The Biggest Winner: Tampa Bay (15 points)
When TB snagged TB, and then bringing in a rested up Gronkowski, they already "Won the Offseason." However, Tampa was then able to draft two fantastic players with only one questionable draft choice (which may still pan out fantastically). Getting Tyler Johnson in the middle 5th, a player who was the Golden Gopher offense for his time as a starter and could still not be stopped, appears to be a great snag. This is the guy who can and will do everything N'Keal Henry was supposed to do for Brady last year, but over 100 picks later. Tristan Wirfs is my pick for best OL in he draft. Iowa just makes these guys. He scored highly because he was drafted as the 4th tackle, a great deal as far as I am concerned. Taking Vaughn out of Vanderbilt in the early 3rd raised some eyebrows, but if he becomes more consistent (and being on a team with a respectable QB and weapons at WR and TE should help) he could become a nice pick, just earlier than anticipated. Other notable picks are Antoine Winfiled at safety in the second, Khalil Davis as a DL in the 6th, and speed RB Calais in the 7th.

The Biggest Loser: Green Bay (-13)
Only two teams graded under -1 draft score, so Green Bay really knocked it out of the park. I noted this in my last post, but let me hit this again regarding GBs draft; I am not knocking the players here, but questioning the team.
Jordan Love will probably be a starting QB in the NFL, but trading up when Rodgers has stated wanting another probably 5 years to play is questionable. AJ Dillon is more than a sledgehammer, with explosiveness and shifty feet and good vision, but in a backfield with 2019 TD leader Aaron Jones and pass catching specialist Jamal Williams, when will Dillon see the field? Granted, Jones and Williams are both in their last contract year, so Dillon may be a starter moving forward. Could be a great pick! Deguara in the third seems a big overdraft on the surface, but he fits well with LaFluer's scheme. If he plays as well as his athleticism and skill set shows he should, he will be a good pick. Taking Kamal Martin in the 5th appears to be a thumper with little athleticism and awareness... so worse than Martinez, who many Packer fans are happy to see leave. All lost the team points. I like the Runyan pick, and two other draftees at OL will probably help, as will another pick in the back end at FS, but overall this is an underwhelming and confusing draft to me.

Other Big Winners
     Cleveland (12)
I am almost tired of being excited for Cleveland. But Jordan Elliot as a disruptive interior DL in the 3rd, ball hawk Grant Delpit at the middle 2nd, big slot and return man Donovan Peoples-Jones in the 6th, and new starting tackle Jedrick Wills are each dang good picks based on slot and relative availability.  Each of these guys are likely to start much of the next year if healthy.

     Arizona, LA Chargers, New Orleans (10)
Each of these teams had very good drafts, so I will only highlight the best of each team.
Arizona drafted OT Josh Jones early in the 3rd round. I figured he would go in the mid 1st. He is tall at 6'7", but not sluggish, and dominated at Houston. A rare body type with a great resume, albeit at a lower level school.
LA Was able to get KJ Hill out of OSU in the 7th round. I saw some mocks putting him in late day 2, and I hated that. However, he runs great routes, has near perfect hands, and will be a great safety blanket foe a decade.
New Orleans also got their best value guy in the early 3rd in Zach Baun. Baun was touted as a potential round 1 guy following a great last year as Wisconsin and some good testing at the combine and pro day. As a late day 2 pick, he may be a starter and swiss army knife between rushing off the edge, dropping in coverage, or playing thumper in the middle.

Other Big Losers
     Atlanta (-8)
I actually like Mykal Walker, but the pick here is concerning to me. He is raw, which could be good, and if he is used and excels as a pass rusher, I will gladly eat crow on this. Jaylinn Hawkins is not really a terrible pick given the void at Safety depth this draft, but I still was a little shaken by it.

Overview
This draft lacked a lot of fireworks for me. There were fewer trades than I thought, and most of the surprises were more so over drafted questions as opposed to Herbert going before Tua or something else of that nature. A lot of great players were added to rosters, though, and this next season could see some insane talent influx due to this deep class. Hopefully the games will actually all be played safely.

Round 1 React

With not nearly as much movement in trades as I expected, this was one of the most tame nights of drafting this century. Very few surprises or reaches, not huge drops for most, a few flips and flops of prospects graded similarly, and New England of course trades down. As good as these players are and can be, what is often as important in determining value is which team picks them, not just which slot they were drafted. Player A at 25 for Team X may appear a terrible pick, but the same player could have gone a few spots before to Team Z and been seen as a great value. On that note, let’s dive into the Head Scratchers, Home Runs, and Base Hits.

HEAD SCRATCHERS

     Packers Trade up for Love at 26

Continuing where were left off above… what the heck. Every draft review is hitting this topic as history repeats itself. Aaron Rodgers is coming off a down year for him with ONLY 4,000 yards, a nearly 7-1 TD-INT ratio, but a definitely subpar completion percentage. Rodgers again threw away a lot of balls and held onto it too long in other cases. Is he the problem? Or is it the average draft slot for his receivers after Davante Adams is… well, low. Of players with at least 20 targets, the average slot is 212^th (if an UDFA counts as drafted 300^th). So will drafting Love, a player with similar problems Rodgers is cited for (not trusting his receivers last year) solve the concern under center for Green Bay? Problem not, as Rodgers will throw the ball away whereas Love will toss the ball into coverage.

The Pack could have addressed needs at receiver or linebacker by sitting at 30 and taking BPA. Love probably also would have fallen to them. While I think Love has the talent to be good NFL starter, the value for the Green and Gold relative to what player could have helped them win for the next three years makes this a puzzler.

     The Damon Arnette Gamble

Mayock played DB, and is a pretty good evaluator, so he may see something the rest of us don’t. But Arnette would likely have been available an entire round later. He is a good zone player with smarts and awareness hitched to huge speed concerns, the opposite of Raider picks of 20 years ago. If used correctly he could be a great player. But initial reaction is the move to Las Vegas has already created a risky business model for the Raiders. They are in a division with speed demons to cover from KC, dynamic receivers in LA, and now CeeDee Lamb at Sutton coming from Denver. This better work out for them.

     Philly Attempts Redrafting DeSean Jackson

This could be an unfair comp. Reagor is far thicker of build, Jackson is faster. But the Eagles left Justin Jefferson, a taller receiver with better route running and hands, to take Reagor, a guy who would likely be available Day 2. And if not, there was still a lot of Value from other receivers. Also, they failed to address CB with Kristian Fulton and Trevon Diggs available, as well as Gladney and Igbinoghene who went before the first round ended.

HOME RUNS

     Justin Jefferson Keeps His Colors

After playing in Purple and Gold down south, Jefferson will play in Purple and Gold up North. He should be able to almost perfectly replace the departed Diggs. Buffalo may be kicking themselves for watching the Vikings get JJ at a fraction of the cost they will be paying Diggs. Jefferson has body control, speed, length, and an insane level of success as a big slot player. Can he replicate his success without a billion other offensive weapons around to pull coverage? We will see.

     Kenneth Murray Goes West

It cost Los Angeles a second and fourth to get a dynamic, athletic, talented leader in the middle of the defense. With that D line in front and the talent behind, Murray can play like a psycho and blitz or cover without hesitation. I found Murray to be a far better prospect than any LB not named Simmons, and he can be the play caller from day 1 in the middle of this versatile and athletic defense.

     Tampa Protects Brady

Getting potentially the best tackle at 13 is a great deal. Tampa has a good interior in Marpet, Jensen, and Cappa. Joe Haeg was recently signed from Indy, but he can provide depth while Wirfs starts. Getting one more tackle a bit later may behoove the Bucs, but there are a bunch of great running backs available, some dang good defensive backs, and some dynamic linebackers, all areas of need for this team.

BASE HITS

     Top 10

Every top 10 pick satisfies needs and meets the projected draft range for those players. Three QBs makes sense, the tackles make sense, the defenders each have insane promise and production. All great picks, but given they are top 10 picks, they should be great.

     172 years later, San Fran Strikes Gold

Replacing DeForest Buckner at a fourth the price and Emmauel Sanders at a third the price are perfect moves. Last year’s NFC Champs give more weapons to Shannahan and Salah. They will dominate this year if they can add greater depth at the DB position.

2020 NFL Draft: Round 1

It is difficult to express my excitement. My heart rate is up, I have shaky hands, and I feel like the moments before a track race starts. This. Is. DRAFT NIGHT! Drafting is a horribly inexact science. Extrapolating performance from college ranks to pros is incredibly hit or miss. The most famous example probably is Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf, or infamously maybe Tony Mandrich vs. The Rest of the 1989 Top 10. In some cases, it should have been caught. Tony Mandrich was juicing. Jamarcus Russell never watched tape and was out of shape. Maurice Clarrett had glaring character concerns. Matt Jones was a physical specimen, but a QB converted to WR who never panned out largely because athletes win in college but professionals win in the NFL (because EVERYONE is an athlete).

But hope springs eternal, and tonight begins a process whereby hundreds of the most gifted athletes take a step forward in their dreams. Which teams will choose the next step forward, and who will stagnate their franchise? Honestly, who knows! But half the fun is predicting, so here are some of mine…

Weak Positions Get Overdrafted

There appears to be no complete tight end, and a severe drop off at edge after Chase Young. Defensive line prospects have some high potential guys in Kinlaw and Brown, but another decline is necessary before Blacklock, Gallimore, Madibuike, and the rest. There will probably be a handful of edge rusher taken in the first round. CBS has K’Lavon Chaisson going no later than 17 and as high as top 10. Yetur Gross-Matos, AJ Epenesa, and Curtis Weaver are each suspicious. A Yetur is a freak without dominance, and the other two have been dominant with sub-par athletic testing. However, at least four edge rushers go in the first due to scarcity. No tight ends, though.

Deep Positions Drop

Inverted from the above prediction, the deep positions see fewer first rounders due to depth. Wide receiver especially could see a few guys plummet. Juedy, Lamb, and Ruggs are all first round locks, with Jefferson the fourth due to his better than expected combine. But the rest are really tough to nail down. Higgins is a big bodied ballet player without separation, and his unimpressive testing probably dropped him out of the first round in this class. He would be dynamic for a gunslinger like Mahomes who throws to tight window players, or he could replace a former Clemson Tiger in Houston. Shenault was also unimpressive at the combine, and likely fell to the second round. Mims tested into freak status, but is he an athlete or 10 year starter at receiver? Brandon Aiyuk, Jalen Reagor, and Michael Pittman all did enough good at the combine to pair with good careers to garner first round status in almost any other year. Round 2 will have some happy shoppers in nabbing some of these guys.

Run on OTs

There are only so many men big enough to play O-Line while athletic enough to excel as a tackle. With a wide ranging group of proven players with bodies to match, and as many as 7 OTs go in the first round. Wirfs, Wills, and Thomas are in the fight for first chosen, with Jones, Jackson, and Becton falling to the middle of round 1. Ezra Cleveland is the outlier here, but he is an athletic dude with strength and length. He put up 30 reps on the bench, good for 5^th from O-Linemen, while also testing 3rd in the 40, best in the 3 Cone and Shuttle, and top 10 in the broad jump. He may have played in a Power 5 conference, but he dominated it and his testing may have pushed him into the first round.

Any RBs?

Every year there is a debate; are running backs worth a first round pick? Well JK Dobbins, DeAndre Swift, and Jonathon Taylor all say yes with Cam Akers, Zach Moss, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire cheering them on. Swift is probably the best pro prospect due to the least wear on the tires, but Taylor is fastest and proved he can catch and grind out tough yards (when not fumbling). Dobbins set OSU records, but had a supporting cast around him which made it a pick-your-poison scheme for the opposing defense. Odds are while there are three talents worthy of being drafted top 32, maybe 1 does.

Linebackers

Sorry for the boring title for this one. It is Isaiah Simmons and then a big downhill to Patrick Queen and Kenneth Murray, and then downhill again to reach the 2^nd round tier. Where does Baun land? What about Jordyn Brooks? Willie Gay Jr.? All have great football on tape with testing to match, but a deep “maybe” class at LB pushes them down together.  Simmons is the rare breed of excellent football player at multiple positions with remarkable testing. He will go top 10. Do Queen and Murray also go first round, though? I think one more of them goes in the first.

Ballhawks and Back End Enforcers

Simmons could easily be listed here as well. PFF rates him as a safety, and he would sit near the top ranks in this position. As it is, Jeff Okudah is probably the only one with the resume, testing, and body which all scream first round. CJ Henderson or Kristian Fulton are the next who grade well in each of these aspects, so they are likely to be the next guys taken at the position. But as with positions noted before, what comes next is a bit of a gamble. Terrell had a lot of talent around him, and only did well enough in most aspects. Diggs didn’t test, but is well sized. Gladney lacks some twitch and size. Inbinoghene lacks a successful resume. Jaylon Johnson played on a Power 5 which mostly smothered opponents, so was he ever really tested? Bryce Hall lacks testing and has an injury history. While each of these players will probably succeed, there are enough questions and enough 2^nd tier depth to drop many of them, leaving only 5 CBs taken in round 1, but a bevy in round two to counter all the receivers coming in the same round. At Safety, McKinney is a thumper while Delpit is a rangy center fielder. Delpit’s skills match today’s game better, and will make him the only safety picked tonight.

Generals

The marque position is at hand! Burrows, Tua, Herbert, Love are all talented, well built, and have arms and legs to help them succeed. What sets them apart is success and health. Burrows put together a video game season for the Heisman and a Championship. Tua has had sustained success countered with a savage injury. Herbert has all the apart skills, but less success (is it team, or is it him?). Love shows moxy, determination, and a boat load of talent, but easily the most risky based on performance and win record. QBs are always heralded, and tend to go high due to the importance of the position. Burrows will go first, Tua and Herbert top 12, and Love will go tonight.

Overview

There will be plenty of trades. With high value players spilling into the second and third rounds, teams will be looking to trade back and get some depth and breadth of talent. Look for 8-10 trades tonight as teams shuffle around to fit needs and value. New England avoids the QB position (for now), Vegas snags either new talent for Carr or his replacement. Epenesa probably misses the first round, and Mekhi Becton loses a lot of money due to his spotty drug test at the combine, going as the 5^th tackle instead of the second or third.

Overall, tonight will be offense heavy. 4 QBs, 1 RB, 6 WRs, 7 O-Linemen will be drafted, totaling 18 offensive players. On defense, 3 Interior defenders, 3 edge rushers, 2 linebackers, and 6 defensive backs make 14 defenders chosen. Truth be told, there is so much talent in this draft, and tomorrow will have huge value picks in both rounds due to the fallout here. Let the festivities begin!!!

Combine Craziness

This Combine was so strange. The different drills, the altered schedule, the lack of overall speed, but the excitement of a few amazing performances. It is like getting to watch one of your favorite movies, but the lips are just out of synch with the audio. It is enjoyable, but also weird…

Anyway, I made some semi-bold predictions for the NFL combine. Let’s see how I did!

Disclaimer: All ‘records’ I reference are regarding modern combine history, so since 2003.

Laviska Shenault test as a top 10 40 for WRs and top 10 at the bench… for LBs.

Boy was I wrong on this. He wasn’t even top 25. He tied for 32^nd at his position in the runs, only faster than 12 other tested pass catchers. And the bench? While he tied for 7^th as a wideout, he was all the way back at 18^th for Linebackers. However, it did come out he will be having Core Muscle surgery, so hopefully that explains the decreased performance. These were also the only tests he completed.

Top O Linemen astound

I was correct on this mark. Mekhi Becton ran the fastest 350lbs Forty Yard dash ever at 5.1. Tristan Wirfs was an all-around monster with record setting O-Line vertical, a great 4.85 40 (at 320 lbs), and 24 reps of the bench with 34” arms. Cesar Ruiz and Ezra Cleveland combined great explosiveness in the vert, excellent movement in the 5-10-5, and great strength on the bench.  Andrew Thomas, Matt Hennessy, and Jon Runyan all had great performances in certain tests. This is an athletic class of tackles.

Five participants go under 4.3, none go under 4.26

I was off on this. The overall top speeds were on par, with Ruggs wining the Combine Gold with a 4.27, but a lot of other speed freaks vastly disappointed. Jaelen Reager claimed he was going to beat Ruggs and ran .2 seconds slower at 37^th overall. Jerry Juedy and Jeff Thomas were both expected to burn, and they ran respectable 4.45s. While Isaiah Simmons flew by at 4.39 (more on him below), only one running back and five defensive backs went under 4.4 (with Javelin Guidry snagging the silver with a 4.29).

Linebackers show their range

As stated above, Isaiah Simmons is a freak athlete. He ran a 4.39 40, a 39 inch vert, and a 11 foot broad jump. He is the only 240 lbs+ player to test that well across the board. Willie gay also ran in the top 10 for DBs with a 4.46. Nearly 20 players were under 4.70, a good time for LBs in the 40. 6 were over 4.8, however, with Cale Garrett at the end with a 4.92. The top jumpers were also phenomenal, with 7 over 36 inches, including 5 at 39 or higher. But a few were even under 30 inches. 13 tested sub-7.1 in the 3 cone, with 5 at 7.2 or higher. 11 were over 4.3 in the shuttle, with none under 4.13. basically, there are some fleet footed ‘backers, and some traditional thumpers who may not be able to cut it athletically in the next level, regardless of collegiate accolades and success.

Freak

Let’s bring up Isaiah Simmons again. Amazing performance overall by him! But a few more jump out as great testers. Tristan Wirfs was already mentioned as a record setter and great all around combine performer. Also, Chase Claypool and Denzel Mims showed speed and strength in the wideout group. Mims went under 4.4 in the 40, 2020 best 6.66 in the 3 Cone, and jumped nearly 40 inches up and 11 feet broad. Claypool ran a 4.42 at 238 pounds with a 40+ inch vertical and 10 foot 6 broad jump. Khalil Davis ran a 4.75 at 308 pounds to go with 32 reps on the bench.

Lots of reps on the bench

Not nearly as much strength as I anticipated. One over 40 with 44 reps, but only 10 total over 30 reps. There were 16 in 2019 and 14 in 2018 (with two over 40 reps). There were a number of great performances, with a punter putting up 25 reps, for instance, but not as much high volume as I expected.

Disappointment

There were a number of poor performances at the combine. But who was the worst overall? You have Quintez Cephus running the slowest WO 40, but leading in the bench and doing very well in the Vert. AGG also ran slow but jumped very well, and his was more expected. Omar Bayless may not be a huge disappointment, but he did not help himself. Moderately poor showing is all drills hurt his stock as he couldn’t crack 4.6, his agility work was marginal, and his vertical was less than Wirfs, and Bayless weighs 100 pounds less.  

However, Iowa’s A.J. Epenesa may have been the biggest faller. His athleticism was almost non existent in the testing with a 5+ second 40, a sub 10 foot broad jump, 17 reps on the bench, and only acceptable times in the agility drills. He lacked explosiveness across the board, which is not good for a tweener.

On offense, Zack Moss didn’t help his cause much with some middling testing. But running back Salvon Ahmed underperformed in all athletic testing while coming in with a small frame, short arms, and not ideal hands. Smallerbacks crave the testing to prove they belong, but Ahmed din’t convince anyone of that.

Unheralded Back Astound

There were some far better performances by some running backs, though. Raymond Calais, a sub 190 lbs runner out of Lafyette, put up 20 reps on the bench with a 4.42 forty and a 37.5 inch vertical. Darrynton Evans put up similar number out of App State, but with 15 more pounds. Josh Kelley ran a nice 4.49 with 23 reps and a sub 7 second 3 cone (but his jumps lacked explosion). AJ Dillon isn't really unheralded, but he showed some speed in the 40 with a low 4.5, put up 23 reps, exploded for a 41 inch vert and near 11 foot broad, and ran a good 7.19 3 cone.

I won’t be the worst

Last but (I hope) not least, is me. I predicted I would not be the worst performer in any category. I found out some interesting things.

My 40 form sucks now. Jumping 90% distance in the broad jump is WAY easier than 100%. I was surprised by my vertical, shuttle, and 3 cone.

The worst categories in each drill were…

40: 5.6 sec (Trey Adams, OL)

Bench: 7 reps (Chris Finke, WO)

Vertical: 24.5” (Trey Adams, OL)

Broad: 92” (Trey Adams, OL)
3 Cone: 8.41 sec (Justin Herron, OL)

Shuttle: 5.26 sec (Benito Jones, DL)

To be honest, this isn’t very fair. I have an advantage in so many ways. I test my best against the worst results, and I should be able to out run and out jump guys nearly twice my weight. Benito Jones, Justin Herron, and Trey Adams all weigh 308+. I weigh 180. However, am going against rare athletes, so I am going to count it.

My results…

40: 4.95 sec

Bench: 11 reps

Vertical: 26.5”

Broad: 94”
3 Cone: 8.01 sec

Shuttle: 5.07 sec

Not only was I not last in any event, I also avoided SECOND last in every event… though I was third worst in broad. So I nailed this prediction, even without full speed testing on 3 cone and shuttle.

With the combine in the books it is time for Pro Days, mock drafts, and anxiety mingled with excitement as the draft approaches!

Combine Predictions

I love the NFL combine. It reminds me just how unathletic I am, and how amazing these feats are. I am no athletic slouch, but I can't even perform as well as the worst combine participants. It is astounding!
But even when the best of the best come together, there are those (Calvin Johnson) who do something (Byron Jones) that embarrasses (Stephen Pea) everyone (Vernon Davis) else (Dontari Poe). It may not lead to a great career (Vernon Gholston), but it is jaw dropping at the time. Here are some predictions.

Laviska Shenault tests as a top 10 40 for WRs and top 10 at the bench... for LBs.
     I like Shenault. He is tough, strong, and knows how to carry a team. He will have a great all around workout at Lucas Oil Stadium, demonstrating his speed and strength in testing.


The top O Linemen astound
     There are a lot of athletic, agile, smooth guys coming out this year with Becton, Wirfs, Jones, Thomas to name a few. Their combination of strength and movement skills will give us the most impressive overall collection of performances from 1st Round graded linemen ever.

Five participants go under 4.3, none go under 4.26
     There is a LOT of speed in Indy this week with Henry Ruggs III and Jalen Reager poised to lead the way. Former teammates have predicted a Bo Jackson type sub 4.2 for Ruggs. Many have threatened to break the electronic 40 mark, but rarely do they even come close. Ross's record holds true for another year still.

Linebackers show their range
     Not only will a handful of linebackers show quickness and long speed, but some will challenge defensive backs in top end speed. The best linebackers will be in the top 10 of defensive back times.

Freak
     Rashan Gary tested phenomenally last year. This year there are a few defenders who can similarly wow. Javon Kinlaw can test well enough to potentially slot right behind Chase Young as the #2

Lots of reps on the bench
     I figure there will be a bunch of linebackers, d linemen, and O linemen who go over 30 resp, but a fewer strong D backs and a couple high repping RBs will also come about.

Disappointment
     Ever year there seems to be someone who falls flat (Orlando Brown, anyone?). There are lots of productive or high potential wide receivers, and a bunch will fall far short of expectations. Look for some bad testing from pass catchers, as well as some scat backs who come in far too slow for their frame.

Unheralded running backs astound
     There is high praise given to to the top running backs, but there are going to be some lower tier guys who test very well. Even given the failure of some smaller backs to prove themselves as burners, there are going to be some guys like Josh Kelley who show speed to spare.

I won't be the worst
     I will take some of my testing, and I hope to not have the worst result in any category. Being a short, slender, marathoner, this is actually quite the challenge for me. I am hoping for some ambitious hogs to do all the testing so I have some low results to beat.

Quarterback run around

Have we ever had a QB carousel like 2020 free agency is shaping up to be? I give credit to Dave Dameshek for highlighting throughout the season how crazy this off season COULD be for QB movement. With Tom Brady and Philip Rivers hitting the market, 3 QBs slated to go top 10 in many Mock Drafts, Ryan Tannehill making himself a viable starter, Winston, Mariota, and Cam probably on the move, Taysom Hill being a weapon with Teddy winning 5 games and Drew Brees future only recently announced, there is a ton going on in the market. So I decided to take some chances and make some takes regarding the QB market.

Cincy: Trade with Raiders for Carr, 2020 12, 19, 3rd, 2021 1st and 4th. Draft Love at 12

Joe Burrow is being touted as something close to a Can’t Miss Prospect. But let’s not forget the last QB from LSU to go 1^st overall was one of the biggest busts ever. Now Burrows doesn’t look at all like Jamarcus Russell, but it pays to be cautious. He was a prolific dual threat QB at Athens in Ohio as a high school student, but after committing to in state darling OSU, he backed up JT Barrett for two years before transferring to LSU when he wasn’t appointed the starter. His first year with LSU he was just OK with sub 60% completion, fewer than 3,000 yards, and a mere 16 TDs. Also, Burrows benefited from a bevy of first round talents on his offense, in skill positions and on his line. There are enough red flags to be hesitant with the first pick when it can be traded for a proven starter, 3 first round picks, and a couple others, you take it. By dropping back, Cincy also takes Jordan Love, a player with a bunch of the tools but lacking the sustained success of those higher rated passers.

Raiders: Snag Brady AND draft Burrow

The raiders purge Carr and pick up the GOAT. They also get Joe Burrow to let him adjust to the pro game for a year before he takes over. Though a 2 year, 60 million dollar deal has been brought up for Brady, my guess is it will end up as a one year deal. Burrow, though with the concerns mentioned above, is first of all a high character kid. A friend lived in Athens and their kids attended school with him. Though their son who was in his grade was in theater and drama, he raved about how good a person Burrow is. Witnessing him raise thousands for charity with his Heisman speech also attests to him being a good guy. As a historically great Heisman winner who vanquished Bama and Clemson in the same season while averaging nearly 4 TDs a night, he has insane potential.

Jax: Picks up Dalton, drafts Fromm in 2^nd

Nick Foles has shown he is far less effective away from Philly. He needs to get back there. Minshew is tantalizing, but the question of whether the team as a whole is poorly assembled or if Gardner couldn’t elevate them will lead Jacksonville to investigate the market. With Dalton on the oust from Cincy, the Red Rifle comes to Duval, while a Day 2 pick grabs his eventual replacement. Minshew is a high level back up who will be Foles South as a guy who can help the team win in dramatic fashion when needed, but doesn’t ever get the keys to the car unless there is an emergency.

Ten: Retains Tanny

This should be an easy decision for both the Titans and Ryan. He was considered washed up in Miami, and the offense was stagnant in Tennessee before he started. If Tennehill plays it smart and takes a deal below what he would get in the open market then the team can also keep Henry and retain a powerful offense.

NO: Keep Brees, let Teddy and Hill go

Bridgewater has a history as a starter and went 5-0 as a starter in ’19. Hill was the best player in the playoffs against Minnesota and wants to start. Brees wants to put records out of reach of Brady and those years behind him. This is a parting of the ways.

Pats: Teddy Bridgewater

As stated above, Teddy has experienced success already. He is young enough to be a starter for a half decade for a team looking to win. New England will coach him up and place a great team around him.

Indy: Snag Taysom Hill

Frank Reich is drooling at the opportunity to have such a dynamic weapon run his offense. He called some creative stuff in Philly, and having Hill’s athleticism would provide an opportunity for a Baltimore like overhaul for the team next season.

Mia: Tua

Don’t overthink is Miami. Fitz will hold down the fort until Tua is healthy. This will be good.

Detroit: Trades Stafford to Chargers for 2020 and 2021 1st, 2nd, 3rd, package more trades, get Herbert at 16 and ATL 2nd and 2021 2^nd

This one may seem a bit crazy, but Stafford hasn’t had a complete offense around him. While the Megatron years had an insane talent to throw to, there was little else. The Chargers have Ekelar, Allen, and more as weapons. Stafford can elevate them with his toughness and talent a la Peak-Rivers. They get a bunch of picks to take a huge cap hit before trading the Chargers’ top pick with Atlanta to grab new starter Herbert and a few extra later picks.

Chargers: Trade for Stafford

On pure arm talent, Stafford is amazing. He can modify his arm angle and release for some crazy throws. He will bring a better talent to the backfield than the Chargers have had since the early 2010’s.

Car: Trade Cam, draft Jacob Eason in 2^nd

Carolina appears to be done with Cam, so they trade him and look ahead. Jacob Eason has the size, arm talent, and prolific success to be a great pick up as a surprising first rounder, but Carolina trades down to get him and pick up other picks.

Chicago: Trade for Cam

Mitch is a poor man’s Cam, and the Prototype replaces him. Cam is going to get a deal a starter deserves, but with “prove it” details to protect Chicago. Cam is at his best pounding the opposing defense and running amuck. He is a Bull. Without having to protect either QB due to a similar mold as a back-up, both Mitch and Cam can be running and throwing bombs willy nilly and creating a crazy and exciting offense to watch in the Windy City.

Tampa Bay: Snag Rivers, let Winston go

Ariens took Old Man Carson Palmer to the cusp of the Super Bowl, and this O has better pass catcher depth. Philips will be getting close to home, starting again, and has the chance to become the top performer in a possibly weak division (dependent on Brees’ decline and how Carolina and Atlanta improve).

Pitt: Snag Winston

Big Ben won’t be around for much longer. Winston is a knock off Ben, with huge arm talent. If the eye surgery improves his interception rate, Winston may be a steal. If he still throws 20 INTs a year but with over 35 TDs, the Steel City is the place to do it thanks to the run game, O line, and defense being able to mitigate the issues.

I understand nowhere near all of these things will occur… but it would be exciting if they did!

The Big Game: Kansas City and San Francisco

It is finally Championship Week! The Chiefs have not been here in near 50 years, while the 49ers are making their second trip this decade. Both have creative and versatile offense with multiple pass catching weapons and stiff offensive lines. The defenses have created myriad problems for opponents, especially once the main characters have made a return (Dee Ford of SF, Clark and Jones for KC).

When Kansas City has the Ball: What is so exciting to me about this game is the matchup of strength versus strength. San Francisco has a powerful defense. It all starts up front, where there are six quality starters. The linebackers are rangy and tough, led by Fred Warner. Richard Sherman anchors the defensive back end a few feisty second fiddles in Williams and Mosely, and Tartt pairs with Ward to make a dangerous safety group. This defense has absolutely no weakness. The Kansas City offense has the same style. When healthy, the offensive line is one of the best at pass blocking. Kelce is a dominant tight end, with Tyreek Hill being lightning in a bottle. When Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman make your third and fourth looks, you have weapons. It is almost unfair for Mahomes to have all this at his disposal, especially when Andy Reid is calling the shots. This is the coach who made McNabb look like a Hall of Famer (who them flamed out with Washington and Minnesota), game planned Kevin Kolb into a 5 year, $60 million flame out deal with Arizona, and resurrected Michael Vick (who then flamed out with Pittsburgh). Not only that, but he took a San Francisco cast off in Alex Smith and won 4 division titles with him at the helm. To finally have a player of Mahomes caliber running his team tilts the field in Kansas City’s favor. Slight advantage 49ers.

When San Francisco has the Ball: Not to be outdone, the 49ers O and Chief’s D are both very good as well. Jimmy G has performed very well for his team without having to carry it. He makes some bad mistakes at times, and needs to read the defense better, something which will be difficult with Spagnuolo creating blitz packages. Raheem Mostert showed his talent last game. He loves playing the Packers. He not only set NFL records on route to 220 yards and 4 TDs in the NFC Championship game, but he was still little more than a bounce-around cast-off when he ran for 87 yards on 12 carries against them last year. He is FAST. His collegiate 60 meter dash is faster than even Tyreek Hill’s, whose speed we have talked about before. The linebacking corps for Kansas City may have to keep Darron Lee ready to go simply for his speed. The front line has three first rounders blocking, and have proven to create wide run lanes and pass block admirably. Chris Jones and Frank Clark must have good games and create pressure while shutting down the run to keep the score down. Emmanuel Sanders may go down as one of the better in-season trades in recent memory. He pulled coverage away from Kittle and Samuel with his crafty route running and veteran knowledge of the game. But Kittle is a beast in his own right. Tyrann Mathieu is the glue in the Chiefs back end, and easily their best player. As amazingly as Daniel Sorensen has played the last two games (seriously, he has hade over a half dozen impact plays), he is outmatched physically and athletically. He will have to play predictive and smart to stay on top of this offense. Advantage San Fran.

Outcome?: If there is any defense made to halt KC, it is this one. A Hall of Famer at CB with multiple Pro Bowl performances elsewhere in the secondary, two fast and thumping LBs, and stacked D Line to create pressure and disrupt passing and running lanes. Shanahan will scheme wins for his O against Spagnuolo, Reid and Mahomes will still get theirs, but it will be too little, and Mahomes may have an actual terrible day. It depends on Kelce. A lot of flags to thrown against his defender. If Warner, Tartt, Ward, Kwon, and Greenlaw play him tight yet clean, this offense will slow considerably. 31-17, San Francisco takes home another Lombardi.

Final Forecast

Final Forecast: Just giving the match ups one more look through to see if I missed anything.

If you look at how Minnesota and GB fell to the 49ers this year, you definitely will see some great play by the West Coast team. However, you also see a lot of breaks go the 49ers way. A questionable personal foul on Davante Adams led to the strip sack/quick TD to start the week 12 rout. It was followed by Bulaga going out with injury, and Alex Light getting demolished the rest of the evening. Ill-timed drops by Allison and a catch ruled non-catch on a deep pass to Graham compounded a string of bad luck for the Green and Gold. In the Vikings game, it was still moderately close at only 17-10 favoring the 49ers when Cousins threw a terrible INT while targeting his All-pro receiver… who had an exposed Achilles tendon due to an injury in practice this week. It was soon 24-10. A bad offensive series by Minnesota led to a punt, but a quick forced 3-and-out of the 49er offense followed. However, return man Sherels muffed it, and it was anther score to San Fran. Cousins marched into 49er territory a few times, but with only 5 Cook runs after the first quarter and down 17, they were obvious passing downs. Four of the Niners six sacks were in the final frame. As good as San Francisco has been this year, and they have been fantastic, a lot of luck broke their way at the end of the season with the Rams absolutely blowing coverage to hand the game away, the no PI call to grab the #1 seed, and with the elements highlighted above in their last two games against the NFC North playoff teams. I still am confident San Francisco can win this game. Lucky teams go far. The Packers have benefited from Phantom Hands to the Face calls, injury plagued Minnesota, Detroit, and Seattle teams, and two rookie QBs leading poor supporting casts in 3 of their final 7 game to grab the #2 seed. If the Packers can play assignment-sound football on defense and Rodgers can find hot reads on offense, I can see a different outcome. I would not at all be surprised to see the Packers win, but I expect the 49ers still win, 31-28.

With Tennessee at KC, I haven’t seen anything to change this prediction. If Chris Jones is a go for KC and Jack Conklin is out for the Titans, just swap 3 points from Tennessee to KC. It is lazy on my part, but this team is deep with talented speed on offense. Hill, Watkins, and Hardman are bad enough, but Kelce elevated himself to Kittle/Gronk level last week. IF Kittle is the #1 TE ahead of Kelce, Travis has to be 1B. And the KC defense really only gave up 2 TD drives last week. Against Fuller and Hopkins and Fells, the pass defense did phenomenal, even in surrendering over 350 passing yards to Watson. The Houston ground attack was negligible. The team played lights out. Tennessee was nearly perfect last week against Baltimore, but Kansas City has a wider range of healthy weapons to play mismatch with. Tannehill will NEED to make hay against this somewhat vulnerable defense to bring the Titans back to the Superbowl, and he will need to not make negative plays or commit turnovers. I don’t see Tennessee having a deep enough stable of pass defenders or offensive weapons to win this one. 38-34, Kansas City.

Green Bay at San Francisco

Green Bay at San Francisco

These two teams played each other in Week 12, and it was BRUTAL, a much more complete dismantling than what the 49ers handed down last week. San Francisco forced a fumble early, cashed in on a 2 yard TD, and the rout was already on. The 49ers were efficient in the pass game with 70% completion, 12+ yards per attempt, and 2 touchdowns averaging over 50 yards. On the ground, they carried 22 times for 112 yards at 5 yards a pop and got 2 scores. And no turnovers. As good as the offense was for San Fran, the defense was better. Green Bay got nothing going offensively, with Rodgers averaging a mere 3.15 yards per pass. If you deduct yardage from the 5 sacks he took, Rodgers only had 66 net passing yards, or 2 yards per attempt. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams only gained 83 yards on 24 carries. The only Packers who were threats at all in the passing game were Davante Adams and Jamaal Williams, and they averaged fewer than 6 yards per catch. Deep safety coverage negated any big plays, the defensive front was harassing Rodgers all day, and the linebackers roamed freely taking away the underneath throws and limiting yards after catch any of the few catches a Packer receiver was able to make.

After that game, San Francisco dropped two of the next three. The defense starting allowing passing yardage. Ahkello Witherspoon faded down the stretch, Dee Ford was out, and Jaquiski Tartt missed time. They were worn down, having played 3 straight months without a break. Inserting K’Waun Williams and Emmanuel Moseley for Witherspoon as the primary CBs not named Sherman and the return of the their safety shored things up against Minnesota. They only allowed 147 yards to the Vikings, and slowly but inexorably dominated them getting their first win by more than five points since hosting the Packers.

Green Bay, though, hasn’t lost since their trips to California, winning by an average of 8+ points. Those numbers were padded by a weak New York Giants game and a practice squad Vikings beat down. However, the Packers have also forged ahead through the very adversity which spawned the San Fran Meltdown. Three early turnovers against Minnesota did not create panic. An early 14-0 and halftime 17-3 deficit to Detroit turned into a 23-20 victory. Scrappy victories against the Redskins and Bears should be noted as well. This team has come up with different ways to win. When the pass rush fails to get home, the secondary has been forcing turnovers. The defense, which had been surrendering about 5 explosive plays a game up to that Week 12 game has shored up, allowing only about 3 per game since. When Aaron Rodgers can’t hit his receiver, Aaron Jones totes the ball for 100 yards. When Jones is stymied, Rodgers drops the ball in the basket down field. The fact this team is 14-3 and in the NFC Championship game with no single game where all three phases were playing their best denotes either a very dangerous team or a weak team. It is tough to decide which, but given where they have found themselves, I would lean towards dangerous.

When Green Bay has the ball: The recipe for success of late is targeting Adams in the passing game and getting Aaron Jones going on the ground. Adams set the Green Bay post-season, single-game record for receiving yards last week with 160 to go with 2 touchdowns. Since Week 10, Adams has 100 yards or at least 1 TD in all but 1 game. If he gets locked down by Sherman, it is likely that success ends. Sherman is the highest rated CB in the NFL this season. His length, confidence, and intelligence have propelled him back to form. If Adams is slowed, Lazard needs to be ready to cut loose. Lazard is 6 foot 5, and the 49ers starting corner opposite Sherman is 5 foot 9. With how well K’Waun is playing, I would not be surprised to see him on Adams and Sherman on Lazard. If they are clamped down, Jones needs to run free. But to where? As good as the Packers’ O-Line has been, the 49er defensive front is better. Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, and Arik Armstead are each hard match ups on their own and can demand a double team. But no team can effectively play 8 blockers. And even if Jones gets to the second level, Kwon Alexander and Fred Warner are two of the best sideline to sideline tacklers. This defense is perfectly built; a line which can penetrate to the backfield and free up 7 to play the pass, linebackers to play shallow zone, multiple safeties deep, and cornerbacks you can trust on an island. However, Rodgers started making perfect throws this weekend, finishing with his second best post-season grade in his career. A narrow edge goes to the 49ers due to the IT factor Rodgers ahs demonstrated.

When San Francisco has the ball: San Fran was the first team to have a post-season win by more than one score this year. The offense clicked for 27 points, also the most up to that point in the playoffs. They ran a variety of players a boggling 47 times for 186 yards, also getting 2 scores. Tevin Coleman got both touchdowns and went over 100 yards. Mostert was the #2 guy that day, gaining 58 yards on 12 carries. Jimmy G only threw 19 passes for 131 yards and an early TD. He also threw a pick, and nearly another one. After looking through this offense, Jimmy is the weak link. He gets panicky when he is in the pocket, and many of his throws were either to Kittle or the first two reads and easy slants. However, he is able to do that successfully because of the pre-snap movement, the play action, dynamic catchers, and good protection. Granted, I have also seen him go through progressions, buy time, make plays with his feet, hit the tough throws, etc. But the Packers have a defensive front which plays the pass HARD. Kenny Clark combined with the Smiths for 25 pressures last week. It is tough to sit back in the pocket against the Packers, and QBs have to make reads fast. Kittle is used for blocking, trickery, and is a phenomenal receiver. I can’t pick a player on the Green Bay defense who matches him easily, because the last time I watched King cover him Kittle went for a 60 yard touchdown catch. But King has been playing quite well since then. Jaire and Tramon can match up well with Samuel and Sanders, but those two receivers will grab some wins in the passing game as well. The real advantage for SF lies in the weakness of the linebackers in the passing game. Martinez is solid, but not a Pro Bowler by any means, and can be swallowed up in blocks and disoriented in coverage. Exploiting him in the pass game will be the key. Advantage San Francisco.

Outcome: San Francisco is deeper up front on defense, and vastly creative on offense. Personnel only, I think Green Bay’s defense can match San Francisco’s offense, but the movement creates openings and confusion which will create points for the home team. When Green Bay takes the field, I think Rodgers, Jones, and Adams will all play better than last time at Levi. I also think Graham, Lazard, Ervin, and probably MVS or Allison will each make at least one or two plays to help keep them in the game more. The wrinkles we saw against Seattle show LaFluer has some hidden cards up his sleeve, but the Ford, Bosa, Thomas, Warner, Sherman and company will create enough problems Green Bay can’t keep up. 34-21, San Francisco.