With not nearly as much movement in trades as I expected, this was one of the most tame nights of drafting this century. Very few surprises or reaches, not huge drops for most, a few flips and flops of prospects graded similarly, and New England of course trades down. As good as these players are and can be, what is often as important in determining value is which team picks them, not just which slot they were drafted. Player A at 25 for Team X may appear a terrible pick, but the same player could have gone a few spots before to Team Z and been seen as a great value. On that note, let’s dive into the Head Scratchers, Home Runs, and Base Hits.
HEAD SCRATCHERS
Packers Trade up for Love at 26
Continuing where were left off above… what the heck. Every draft review is hitting this topic as history repeats itself. Aaron Rodgers is coming off a down year for him with ONLY 4,000 yards, a nearly 7-1 TD-INT ratio, but a definitely subpar completion percentage. Rodgers again threw away a lot of balls and held onto it too long in other cases. Is he the problem? Or is it the average draft slot for his receivers after Davante Adams is… well, low. Of players with at least 20 targets, the average slot is 212th (if an UDFA counts as drafted 300th). So will drafting Love, a player with similar problems Rodgers is cited for (not trusting his receivers last year) solve the concern under center for Green Bay? Problem not, as Rodgers will throw the ball away whereas Love will toss the ball into coverage.
The Pack could have addressed needs at receiver or linebacker by sitting at 30 and taking BPA. Love probably also would have fallen to them. While I think Love has the talent to be good NFL starter, the value for the Green and Gold relative to what player could have helped them win for the next three years makes this a puzzler.
The Damon Arnette Gamble
Mayock played DB, and is a pretty good evaluator, so he may see something the rest of us don’t. But Arnette would likely have been available an entire round later. He is a good zone player with smarts and awareness hitched to huge speed concerns, the opposite of Raider picks of 20 years ago. If used correctly he could be a great player. But initial reaction is the move to Las Vegas has already created a risky business model for the Raiders. They are in a division with speed demons to cover from KC, dynamic receivers in LA, and now CeeDee Lamb at Sutton coming from Denver. This better work out for them.
Philly Attempts Redrafting DeSean Jackson
This could be an unfair comp. Reagor is far thicker of build, Jackson is faster. But the Eagles left Justin Jefferson, a taller receiver with better route running and hands, to take Reagor, a guy who would likely be available Day 2. And if not, there was still a lot of Value from other receivers. Also, they failed to address CB with Kristian Fulton and Trevon Diggs available, as well as Gladney and Igbinoghene who went before the first round ended.
HOME RUNS
Justin Jefferson Keeps His Colors
After playing in Purple and Gold down south, Jefferson will play in Purple and Gold up North. He should be able to almost perfectly replace the departed Diggs. Buffalo may be kicking themselves for watching the Vikings get JJ at a fraction of the cost they will be paying Diggs. Jefferson has body control, speed, length, and an insane level of success as a big slot player. Can he replicate his success without a billion other offensive weapons around to pull coverage? We will see.
Kenneth Murray Goes West
It cost Los Angeles a second and fourth to get a dynamic, athletic, talented leader in the middle of the defense. With that D line in front and the talent behind, Murray can play like a psycho and blitz or cover without hesitation. I found Murray to be a far better prospect than any LB not named Simmons, and he can be the play caller from day 1 in the middle of this versatile and athletic defense.
Tampa Protects Brady
Getting potentially the best tackle at 13 is a great deal. Tampa has a good interior in Marpet, Jensen, and Cappa. Joe Haeg was recently signed from Indy, but he can provide depth while Wirfs starts. Getting one more tackle a bit later may behoove the Bucs, but there are a bunch of great running backs available, some dang good defensive backs, and some dynamic linebackers, all areas of need for this team.
BASE HITS
Top 10
Every top 10 pick satisfies needs and meets the projected draft range for those players. Three QBs makes sense, the tackles make sense, the defenders each have insane promise and production. All great picks, but given they are top 10 picks, they should be great.
172 years later, San Fran Strikes Gold
Replacing DeForest Buckner at a fourth the price and Emmauel Sanders at a third the price are perfect moves. Last year’s NFC Champs give more weapons to Shannahan and Salah. They will dominate this year if they can add greater depth at the DB position.
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