Last year, I was a bit intense when it came to my Playoff analysis, so this year will be toned down (in part because I still have a day job, and January is a crazy time). But first, I join the ranks of those grateful fans who were not sure they would see a season at all 6 months ago, who 3 months were worried the playoffs would be postponed or cancelled, but are now one day removed from playoff football with cheeks in the seats. Multiple teams have announced fans will be attending games, which is a bit of a miracle in itself.
To kick it off playoff season, I would like to hold myself accountable. After week 9, I sat down and predicted every game for the remainder of the season, and I did pretty well, with the exception of Arizona in the NFC and the Raiders in the AFC. I predicted a playoff field of Steelers at Titans, Raiders at Bills, and Browns at Ravens with Chiefs on bye in the AFC, and Seahawks at WFT, Buccaneers at Cardinals, and Rams at Saints with Packers on bye in the NFC. Las Vegas flopped, and were replaced by Indianapolis, and Chicago lucked out by Arizona’s collapse, getting into the playoffs by default after a 3 game win streak before a week 17 loss. A lesson from this; do not buy into teams on win streaks without taking into account the level of competition, margin of victory, and the luck involved in getting the win.
Enough about the past; let’s look at the games this weekend!
INDIANAPOLIS AT BUFFALO
Why the Colts can win: Indianapolis has a savvy veteran QB about to retire, and he wants his shot at a Super Bowl. With no glaring weakness on the defense most of the season, the offense finally started clicking well to end the year, with Taylor showing true workhorse talent, Hilton catching TDs again, and a bevy of depth players catching passes at WR, TE, and RB.
Why the Bills will win: The antithesis of Indy, the offense has shown no glaring weakness outside of spats of an inability to run. But the defense has come on strong against some good offenses to close the season. Allen and Diggs will fare better against a strong Colts defense than Rivers will fare against a resurgent Bills defense.
Buffalo 31 – Indianapolis 23
LOS ANGELES (RAMS) AT SEATTLE
Why the Seahawks can win: They are at home, the defense has seemingly found its groove, and Wilson had 40 TD passes to a pair of receivers who set the Yardage (Metcalf) and receptions (Lockett) record this year.
Why the Rams will win: First, in a counter to all the Seahawk points, the defense found its form against flailing Arizona, Philly, Jets teams, and Washington, San Fran, and LA team with injured starting QBs. Lockett only had more than 100 yards receiving once all season, and Metcalf averaged 5.5/100/1TD for the first 8 games, and 5/65/.3TD since. Wilson started the first 7 games completing 71.48% of his passes with 26 TD passes, 6 picks, and 19 sacks. In the last 9 games, he is at 66.56% with 14 TDs, 7 picks, and 28 sacks. The Rams defense is built to slow him down, with pressure up the middle with Donald, tight coverage on Metcalf and Lockett with Ramsey and Hill, and containment with Floyd, Brockers, and versatile safeties. If Kupp and Goff play, they should also have the advantage over the defense which may miss Jamal Adams.
Los Angeles 27 – Seattle 17
TAMPA BAY AT WASHINGTON
Why the Buccaneers can win: Tom Brady, and he has the most diverse and stacked offense of his career. Godwin and Evans alone are great, but Gronk is the worst at TE with Howard and Brate, and AB being added is hardly fair, and the O Line is great, and Tampa Bay is not short on RBs with two first round talents. The defense, ranked 8th in points, 6th in yards, and 5th in forced turnover, is fast and furious, with Devin White leading the way. Suh, JPP, Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield Jr., Shaq Barrett, Dean or Davis, Gholston; any of these guys can take over a game. Wow this team is scary.
Why WFT will win: Pressure on Brady is the best chance to win. And Washington is better suited than anyone in these playoffs to make that happen. Chase Young leads former first rounders Montez Sweat, Ryan Kerrigan, Daron Payne, and Jonathan Allen. I also love the athleticism in the secondary, especially if Evans is out. Make brady hold it, and this defense, 7th in turnovers, will get to the GOAT. Plus, if Alex Smith plays, he is one of the best at managing the game at taking the safe play, something which could inhibit Tampa’s ability to feast off turnovers.
Washington 20 – Tampa Bay 16
BALTIMORE AT TENNESSEE
Why the Titans can win: Derrick Henry can control a game. Tannehill rates as a top 5 QB statistically the past 2 seasons. The defense has talent in spots. Tennessee has some good pass catcher, especially in AJ Brown.
Why the Ravens will win: They are scary and versatile on both sides of the ball. Lamar, Gus Edwards, Mark Ingram, and JK Dobbins are one of the best backfield combos ever (okay, maybe just in the last 25ish years). You can have any three of those guys in on the same play and have no idea where the ball will go. The receivers and tight ends are versatile. The defense is stacked at just about every level, but especially the line to stop King Henry.
Baltimore 37 – Tennessee 25
CHICAGO AT NEW ORLEANS
Why the Bears can win: Their defense has been good, and offense even better to end the midseason losing streak, and has been much better with Trubisky than with Foles. Montgomery has come on strong at the end of the season, Graham is doing something he didn’t do in Green Bay (make red zone catches for TDs), and Akiem Hicks makes the whole defense better. Plus, Alvin Kamara had a positive Covid test, and may miss the game as it is right around the 10 day mark from his positive test.
Why the Saints will win: Brees is in, Thomas may be back, Sanders has done well, the O Line has the best tackle tandem in football, the defense is top 5 in both points and yards as well as 3rd in turnovers. Chicago feasted on weak teams to stumble into the playoffs, and with Roquan Smith maybe missing the game, Brees will do what Rodgers did and quickly pick apart the weak links.
New Orleans 38 – Chicago 17
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH
Why the Steelers can win: They have a lot of talent at a lot of key positions. TJ Watt leads a well ranked and respected defense, and they get after the QB better than anyone. Juju, Claypool, and Johnson are all doing well, and Roethlisberger remembered he can throw deep.
Why the Browns will win: Roethlisberger throws rather poorly deep, the pass protection has been shoddy, the WRs drop ball, the running game has been no-existent, and the best way to stop a pass rush is to force them to play the run. Cleveland is going without their head coach and starting guard, but Hunt and Chubb are both bruisers with speed and good feet and good hands. Myles Garrett is out to prove he should be DPOY, not Watt (or Donald), and he has a point, he did about as much in fewer games with a surrounding cast lacking the talent the other two guys have.
Cleveland 27 – Pittsburgh 20
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