I never actually put out my Division Round Preview or Follow up. Shame. But we are now at Championship Sunday! 2 games on Sunday pitting 2 first ballot Hall of Fame quarterbacks against each other, and 2 ultra-exciting quarterbacks on the other side. While some of these games this post season have lacked the sizzle, fireworks, or excitement we expected, there has at least been some suspense and surprises.
TAMPA BAY at GREEN BAY
Two former divisional opponents from the former NFC Central face off in a playoff addition of the Battle of the Bays. What hasn’t been said of these quarterbacks? What hasn’t been said of this Bucs defense? Are the rankings for these teams appropriate?
Why Tampa can win: It is hard to bet against Brady, and harder still when he has one of the better defenses and the deepest offensive weapons and possibly best O line he has ever had in a 20 year career. Mike Evans has a historical career already, with 7 straight 1,000 yard seasons. Godwin is a fantastic slot and outside receiver, and a near perfect compliment to Evans. The tight ends are great even with Howard on IR considering Brate and Gronk, who can run, catch, and block. Antonio Brown was once the best wide out in the game. Tyler Johnson snagged one of the best catches of the year last week. Scotty Miller had the breakout play of the game last week to really get the ball moving into a win over the Saints. Plus, two fantastic rushers in Fournette and Jones. On defense, the team is stacked with early picks. David (2nd)-White (5th overall) and backed up by Kevin Minter if available (is the best linebacker combo since Willis-Bowman, no offense intended to Wagner-Wright. Suh (2nd overall), Pierre-Paul (1st), and Barrett may be reinforced by Vita Vea (1st). In the back end, Winfield, Davis, Murphy-Bunting (all 2nd round), Dean (3rd), and Whitehead (4th) attack the ball in the air and swarm while in the ball carrier’s hands. The talent and performance of these players demonstrate a fantastic job by the scouting department.
This team is the best run defense in the NFL, allowing a mere 80.6 yards per game. They allowed six 100 yard rushing teams in 18 games, and only Dalvin Cook went over 100 yards. Only two other running backs gained more than 50 yards. The Bucs are top 10 in scoring and turnovers for both offense and defense. They have won the last 7 road games. They just (likely) ended Drew Brees’ career with his worst game in a decade. The offense has only been held under 21 points twice, and are riding a 6 game streak of at least 26 points, all wins. The Offensive line has protected Brady the last two games against powerful pass rush teams, even with losing starting guard Alex Cappa to a broken ankle. With brady attempting to assert he was the driving force of the 2 decade Patriot Dynasty, he is piloting this team perfectly.
Why Green Bay will win: For starters, this team is probably even better than their rankings, which is scary. The offense is tops in points, 5th in yards, and fewest giveaways. The defense is top 10 against the pass, and has really slowed down running backs better the last two months, not allowing a 100 yard rusher since week 10, a gauntlet which included Montgomery twice, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Cam Akers. Jaire has nearly erased his side of the field, and blanked Evans in the week 6 meeting. Savage and Amos are playing significantly better, Kenny Clark is no longer slowed by the pulled groin, Gary and Preston are playing wonderfully opposite Z Smith, and Krys Barnes in the middle playing the enforcer allows Kirksey to range and be a playmaker instead of an every down thumper, collecting sacks and picks since the switch was made. The defense forced nearly three times as many turnovers since week 8 as before (14 vs 5). This defense is playing better than ever.
On the other side of the ball, the Packers just demolished the #1 defense, nearly doubling them up in points and yards, and that was with a collection of drops, underthrows, and overthrows, and near 200 yards rushing. Week 6 was Davante Adams first game back from a hamstring pull, which he is now healed up from (tidbit - the Packers are winless the first game Adams comes back from injury). Allen Lazard is back from a core muscle injury, MVS has been much improved since week 8, increasing his catch rate by 25%, putting up 5 touchdowns with 462 yards at 22 yards per catch. Taylor, Sternberger, St Brown, Dafney, and Dillon have each scored their first TDs since this game, adding weapons and variance to an already scary offense. Aaron Jones has been running like a man possessed, and Williams and Dillon are like cannon balls when they run straight at a defense. Rodgers is unlikely to throw what basically amounts to 2 pick sixes again. The team is more solid at left tackle as Bakhtiari left the week 6 game and Wagner was almost a turnstile there the rest of the game. Since week 6, the only thing which has really slowed this offense is drops, which stalled them in loses to Minnesota and Indianapolis, and made things interesting against Jacksonville, Chicago, and Carolina. With three viable running backs, three reliable receivers, versatile tight ends, and a line playing much better than they did 14 weeks ago, this offense should click.
Lastly, let’s remember this game will be played in Green Bay in January, not Tampa Bay in October. The Packers flew from 50 and overcast to 90 and sunny for the first game. Tampa bay temperatures were over 80 for the New Year and days in the 70’s this week, and they will be flying to ice and possible snow this weekend. Physiological studies show a drop in performance of about 5-10% for every 10 degrees difference than what an athlete is currently acclimated to. This near 50 degree drop will affect these guys, creating a homefield advantage even with limited attendance.
BOLD PREDICITON: Brady is sacked less than twice, but is hurried enough he completes about half his passes and a interception.
Packers 30 – Buccaneers 22
BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY
These two Quarterbacks are the future of the AFC. After a decade of a half of Manning and Brady dueling, we will see these two be the pinnacle of the conference for the foreseeable future.
Why Kansas City can win: You saw what they were still able to accomplish even without Mahomes last week. The defense held Cleveland to under 20 points. Hill and Kelce alone are fantastic, but add in the versatile weapons in Hardman, Pringle, Bell, CEH (if healthy), and former top 5 pick in Sammy Watkins, and this offense is amazing. They went 2-1 without Mahomes last year, and closed out a playoff win with Matt Moore last week with him throwing it. But if Mahomes comes back healthy, this offense is one of the most creative and effective in the common era. Mahomes makes his own plays, sandlots within the system, and finds guys deep, middle, and runs, frustrating every defense. Andy Reid is aggressive, and can get away with it. Even if his team is stopped on fourth down or giveaway the football, they are likely to have a scoring drive afterwards anyways, propelled by a top 5 team in scoring percentage.
Speaking of defense, these guys blitz, throwing off timing, and find a way to grab 16 interceptions, top 5 in the league. While no player has more than 100 tackles, over a dozen have at least 35. Sacks are spread out, interceptions are spread out, and over a dozen players have passes defensed. This is a defense without any one player responsible for the production. It is a team defense, without any glaring weakness.
Why Buffalo will win: There are some issues with Kansas City, and while none are detrimental in themselves, they can add up. The offense is streaky, the redzone defense is abysmal, the run defense is poor, and the pass defense is middle of the pack. They also have not won by more than 6 points since the Jets beatdown in week 8, closing close games against Carolina, Vegas, Denver, and Atlanta. Buffalo has a high octane offense, led by Allen’s arms buoyed by Allen’s legs, and sometimes a running back does something. With Diggs, Brown, Beasley, and Knox as main targets, and Singletary out of the backfield, you can blanket Diggs, but it leaves others guys open, and Allen will more than likely find them. A ferocious KC pass rush withered Buffalo in week 6, even without recording a sack. But Buffalo has only allowed more than two sacks once since that game, and that was a 7 sack game in a win against Seattle. They are also the best 3rd down offense in the league.
The defense has been streaky, but been up to the task these playoffs. They held strong in the red zone against Indy, and completely halted the Baltimore offense. They have been swarming and flocking, knocking down passes, taking away favorite targets, and keeping the ball in front of them. They got to Lamar Jackson 4 times and held him to under 200 yards rush and pass yards, a combined feat only accomplished twice this season, by KC. White, Hyde, Edmonds, Oliver, Hughes, Milano, and Klein have each been game wreakers at time. This is another team defense, with no player with more than 5 sacks, but 14 recording at least one, and 17 players recording defended passes. It is hard to find the weakness in the defense, because the whole unit is good.
BOLD PREDICTION: Mahomes plays this game, but is hampered by the combination of injuries to his toe, pinched nerve, and head trauma enough he gets pulled in the 4th quarter with his team down more than two TDs.
Bills 38 – Chiefs 34
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