Can we just have the Big Game next week?

I never actually put out my Division Round Preview or Follow up. Shame. But we are now at Championship Sunday! 2 games on Sunday pitting 2 first ballot Hall of Fame quarterbacks against each other, and 2 ultra-exciting quarterbacks on the other side. While some of these games this post season have lacked the sizzle, fireworks, or excitement we expected, there has at least been some suspense and surprises.

TAMPA BAY at GREEN BAY

Two former divisional opponents from the former NFC Central face off in a playoff addition of the Battle of the Bays. What hasn’t been said of these quarterbacks? What hasn’t been said of this Bucs defense? Are the rankings for these teams appropriate?

Why Tampa can win: It is hard to bet against Brady, and harder still when he has one of the better defenses and the deepest offensive weapons and possibly best O line he has ever had in a 20 year career. Mike Evans has a historical career already, with 7 straight 1,000 yard seasons. Godwin is a fantastic slot and outside receiver, and a near perfect compliment to Evans. The tight ends are great even with Howard on IR considering Brate and Gronk, who can run, catch, and block. Antonio Brown was once the best wide out in the game. Tyler Johnson snagged one of the best catches of the year last week. Scotty Miller had the breakout play of the game last week to really get the ball moving into a win over the Saints. Plus, two fantastic rushers in Fournette and Jones. On defense, the team is stacked with early picks. David (2nd)-White (5th overall) and backed up by Kevin Minter if available (is the best linebacker combo since Willis-Bowman, no offense intended to Wagner-Wright. Suh (2nd overall), Pierre-Paul (1st), and Barrett may be reinforced by Vita Vea (1st). In the back end, Winfield, Davis, Murphy-Bunting (all 2nd round), Dean (3rd), and Whitehead (4th) attack the ball in the air and swarm while in the ball carrier’s hands. The talent and performance of these players demonstrate a fantastic job by the scouting department.

This team is the best run defense in the NFL, allowing a mere 80.6 yards per game. They allowed six 100 yard rushing teams in 18 games, and only Dalvin Cook went over 100 yards. Only two other running backs gained more than 50 yards. The Bucs are top 10 in scoring and turnovers for both offense and defense. They have won the last 7 road games. They just (likely) ended Drew Brees’ career with his worst game in a decade. The offense has only been held under 21 points twice, and are riding a 6 game streak of at least 26 points, all wins. The Offensive line has protected Brady the last two games against powerful pass rush teams, even with losing starting guard Alex Cappa  to a broken ankle. With brady attempting to assert he was the driving force of the 2 decade Patriot Dynasty, he is piloting this team perfectly.

Why Green Bay will win: For starters, this team is probably even better than their rankings, which is scary. The offense is tops in points, 5th in yards, and fewest giveaways. The defense is top 10 against the pass, and has really slowed down running backs better the last two months, not allowing a 100 yard rusher since week 10, a gauntlet which included Montgomery twice, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Cam Akers. Jaire has nearly erased his side of the field, and blanked Evans in the week 6 meeting. Savage and Amos are playing significantly better, Kenny Clark is no longer slowed by the pulled groin, Gary and Preston are playing wonderfully opposite Z Smith, and Krys Barnes in the middle playing the enforcer allows Kirksey to range and be a playmaker instead of an every down thumper, collecting sacks and picks since the switch was made. The defense forced nearly three times as many turnovers since week 8 as before (14 vs 5). This defense is playing better than ever.

On the other side of the ball, the Packers just demolished the #1 defense, nearly doubling them up in points and yards, and that was with a collection of drops, underthrows, and overthrows, and near 200 yards rushing. Week 6 was Davante Adams first game back from a hamstring pull, which he is now healed up from (tidbit - the Packers are winless the first game Adams comes back from injury). Allen Lazard is back from a core muscle injury, MVS has been much improved since week 8, increasing his catch rate by 25%, putting up 5 touchdowns with 462 yards at 22 yards per catch. Taylor, Sternberger, St Brown, Dafney, and Dillon have each scored their first TDs since this game, adding weapons and variance to an already scary offense. Aaron Jones has been running like a man possessed, and Williams and Dillon are like cannon balls when they run straight at a defense. Rodgers is unlikely to throw what basically amounts to 2 pick sixes again. The team is more solid at left tackle as Bakhtiari left the week 6 game and Wagner was almost a turnstile there the rest of the game. Since week 6, the only thing which has really slowed this offense is drops, which stalled them in loses to Minnesota and Indianapolis, and made things interesting against Jacksonville, Chicago, and Carolina. With three viable running backs, three reliable receivers, versatile tight ends, and a line playing much better than they did 14 weeks ago, this offense should click.

Lastly, let’s remember this game will be played in Green Bay in January, not Tampa Bay in October. The Packers flew from 50 and overcast to 90 and sunny for the first game. Tampa bay temperatures were over 80 for the New Year and days in the 70’s this week, and they will be flying to ice and possible snow this weekend. Physiological studies show a drop in performance of about 5-10% for every 10 degrees difference than what an athlete is currently acclimated to. This near 50 degree drop will affect these guys, creating a homefield advantage even with limited attendance.

BOLD PREDICITON: Brady is sacked less than twice, but is hurried enough he completes about half his passes and a interception. 

Packers 30 – Buccaneers 22

BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY

These two Quarterbacks are the future of the AFC. After a decade of a half of Manning and Brady dueling, we will see these two be the pinnacle of the conference for the foreseeable future. 

Why Kansas City can win: You saw what they were still able to accomplish even without Mahomes last week. The defense held Cleveland to under 20 points. Hill and Kelce alone are fantastic, but add in the versatile weapons in Hardman, Pringle, Bell, CEH (if healthy), and former top 5 pick in Sammy Watkins, and this offense is amazing. They went 2-1 without Mahomes last year, and closed out a playoff win with Matt Moore last week with him throwing it. But if Mahomes comes back healthy, this offense is one of the most creative and effective in the common era. Mahomes makes his own plays, sandlots within the system, and finds guys deep, middle, and runs, frustrating every defense. Andy Reid is aggressive, and can get away with it. Even if his team is stopped on fourth down or giveaway the football, they are likely to have a scoring drive afterwards anyways, propelled by a top 5 team in scoring percentage.

Speaking of defense, these guys blitz, throwing off timing, and find a way to grab 16 interceptions, top 5 in the league. While no player has more than 100 tackles, over a dozen have at least 35. Sacks are spread out, interceptions are spread out, and over a dozen players have passes defensed. This is a defense without any one player responsible for the production. It is a team defense, without any glaring weakness.

Why Buffalo will win: There are some issues with Kansas City, and while none are detrimental in themselves, they can add up. The offense is streaky, the redzone defense is abysmal, the run defense is poor, and the pass defense is middle of the pack. They also have not won by more than 6 points since the Jets beatdown in week 8, closing close games against Carolina, Vegas, Denver, and Atlanta. Buffalo has a high octane offense, led by Allen’s arms buoyed by Allen’s legs, and sometimes a running back does something. With Diggs, Brown, Beasley, and Knox as main targets, and Singletary out of the backfield, you can blanket Diggs, but it leaves others guys open, and Allen will more than likely find them. A ferocious KC pass rush withered Buffalo in week 6, even without recording a sack. But Buffalo has only allowed more than two sacks once since that game, and that was a 7 sack game in a win against Seattle. They are also the best 3rd down offense in the league.

The defense has been streaky, but been up to the task these playoffs. They held strong in the red zone against Indy, and completely halted the Baltimore offense. They have been swarming and flocking, knocking down passes, taking away favorite targets, and keeping the ball in front of them. They got to Lamar Jackson 4 times and held him to under 200 yards rush and pass yards, a combined feat only accomplished twice this season, by KC. White, Hyde, Edmonds, Oliver, Hughes, Milano, and Klein have each been game wreakers at time. This is another team defense, with no player with more than 5 sacks, but 14 recording at least one, and 17 players recording defended passes. It is hard to find the weakness in the defense, because the whole unit is good.

BOLD PREDICTION: Mahomes plays this game, but is hampered by the combination of injuries to his toe, pinched nerve, and head trauma enough he gets pulled in the 4th quarter with his team down more than two TDs. 

Bills 38 – Chiefs 34

 

Only the Best Remain

Here we are in the Divisional Round. I think most anyone outside the losing team fanbases would agree the better teams won in the Wildcard round. We now have a collection of eight fantastic teams vying for a spot in their respective Conference Championship game. Who will prevail?

LA RAMS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

When the #1 Defense faces the #1 Offense in the playoffs, defense usually wins. Rodger is 0-2 against the #1 Defense in the playoffs. However, when the QB with the most TDs faces the Defense giving up the least, the QB usually wins. So historical trends won't work well here. Let's look at these teams, not past teams.

Why LA can win: That defense is stacked. They have ballhawk safeties, smothering CBs, and a D line stacked with first rounders in Floyd, Brockers, and of course Aaron Donald. Donald, even with near broken ribs, is likely to wreck the Packer O Line while demanding double teams. With short and quick passes likely, Ramsey, Hill, and Williams will clamp down and press the Packer WRs who have shown against Carolina and Tampa Bay they do not excel at creating early separation. Cam Akers is running wild for the offense, breaking team records for rookie playoff performances, which allows Goff to operate play action and calmly find Woods, Kupp, or Higbee for deep shots. 

Why GB will win: They have a deep O Line which, even missing All Pro Bakhtiari, is deep and talented. The line will buy enough time for some rhythm throws and some deep shots. Davante Adams has almost disappeared in some games, but rarely is held for under 100 yards and no TDs. Tonyan has 11 TDs on the year as a TE. Jones, Williams, and Dillon are versatile as a RB group. And the defense has been stopping the run as of late. With Goff sporting a broken thumb, and the Rams having to adjust to a 40 degree drop in temperature, it should swing things in favor of the home team.

Green Bay 27 - LA 16

BALTIMORE RAVENS at BUFFALO BILLS

Two dynamic QBs running two vastly different offenses. Which QB will blink first? Both won their first playoff game last week, but only one will win their second.

Why Baltimore can win: The Baltimore offense is nearly unpredictable. They have 4 amazing runners led by Jackson, running for over 3000 yards in back-to-back seasons. You never know where the ball will go, causing hesitation, which leads to scores. The defense is stacked with talent at every level, with Peters, Smith, Humphrey, Campbell, and more locking down the pass and stopping the run dead in it's tracks. 

Why Buffalo will win: Buffalo is a pass first team with a bevy of good pass catchers. They have multiple speed guys, multiple chain movers, and Stefon Diggs may be the best all around WR in football (I felt that last year, by the way). The run game is weak, but the Allen creates an extra wrinkle. Baltimore thrives on turnovers, so as long as Allen doesn't play Superman, Buffalo should win.

Buffalo 31 - Baltimore 30

CLEVELAND BROWNS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

After near 3 weeks rest, the KC starters will take the field again. Reid prepares well after byes, compiling a career 21-5 mark after a week without a game. The Browns rocked the Steelers last week even without their starting G, two CBs, and Head Coach. Will their luck continue?

Why Cleveland can win: They are the ultimate team right now. While Myles Garrett is certainly a star, the rest of the team is so reliant and dependent on the whole to succeed. Landry, Chubb, Hunt, Mayfield, Ward are all good players, but not the star power typically associated with a Super Bowl contender. They run so well, and that is what KC has trouble stopping. They also play pretty disciplined defense, and Mahomes has been so human as of late. With KC not winning a game by more than 6 since beating the mid-season Jets, Cleveland can pull of an upset.

Why Kansas City will win: Reid is a magician and Mahomes is amazing. Combined with the fastest WR group in the league, the best TE, and a stacked defense, this team is the upgraded version of the Manning-Dungy Colts. I may pick against them, but I would never put money on this team losing. The pressure will be on Mayfield to win it, and he just won't.

Kansas City 37 - Cleveland 24

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The History Channel game! Brady is ousting George Blanda from record books. Brees is still efficiently winning game. Both have dominant defenses and a run came to compliment the QB. No matter who wins this game, they will likely be the NFC Champion.

Why New Orleans can win: Did you see what they did the Tampa (twice!!) this year? They annihilated them (TWICE!!!). The ame is no longer on Brees alone. They have multiple weapons at WR with Thomas, Sanders, and Harris, as well as Cook and Hill at TE. And Alvin Kamara, too. Brees is the heart of this team, but Kamara is the legs. He carries them. Shut him down, and the Saints become ordinary on offense. The defense, however, is fast, aggressive, and deep. The D Line can rush the QB and stop the run. The Linebackers are rangy and sure tacklers. The defensive backs are tough, fast, and play the ball well. This is the best team Brees has ever played with.

Why Tampa Bay will win: With three great receivers as well as three great tight ends, Brady can pick any target. It is near impossible to cover all the guys on any play. The RBs are pounders between the tackles, demanding attention. The Defense is like the Saints, but with even more speed from the linebackers. Lavonte David and Devin White can and will neutralize Kamara at the edges, forcing Brees to do what he can, but is hesitant to do; throw deep. Brees' arm looks older every year. This is the end fo the road for him.

Tampa Bay 31 - New Orleans 23

Playoffs! How did it go?

 How did it go? HOW did it GO???

…

It went something like this!

“Colts are playing well. They look as though they should win. Was that a catch? Was THAT a catch??? Intercep- wait, offsides. INTERCEPTION RETURNED FOR A FULL FIELD TOUCHDOW- wait, that wasn’t caught. And Bills TD for the lead!” And that was just the last drive of the first half of the first game, a narrow win by the Bills over the Colts. Josh Allen’s moxy and cannon should not be ignored. And the defense did a good job buttoning up in the red zone. Phillip Rivers moved the Colts up and down the field, but got into the endzone too infrequently.

Rams at Seahawks was a  slow developing clash between division foes in Seattle. The backup Rams QB, who started the game, was knocked out, pushing the injured starter back into the game. A big defensive play made it appear the Rams may start to run away with it, but some improv by Russ and Metcalf being left unguarded made it a game… but only briefly. Cam Akers was the offense for this Rams team, and even without Aaron Donald the D Line made Wilson uncomfortable. 

Washington fell to Tampa Bay in an exciting affair compliments of a near comeback from another backup QB, who was also hurt, but came back to make it a one score game. Taylor Heinicke showed guts dueling with the GOAT, but his early mistakes were the difference. Brady threw for 2 TDs and nearly 400 yards in this one, as the Buccaneers move on.

On Sunday, The Titans came out hard and fast to a listing Ravens team, but then the tides turned. The Ravens clamped down on Brown, bottled up Henry, and Lamar broke off a couple massive runs to win the game. Some gutless calls by Vrabel made it hard to keep the offense moving, and Tannehill never did enough to move the chains.

Jumping back to the NFC, the Bears appeared to have no direction as they only mustered 3 points before a last second TD made it a respectable 21-9 win for the Brees led Saints. Brees was again efficient, went unsacked, and had a great improv TD pass to Latavius Murray. But in the sense of fairness,, it shouldn’t be hard to beat a Chicago team plagued by 9 penalties, missing their 2nd and 3rd receiver, and their 4th WR dropped a perfect, in the basket TD catch which would have tied the game up.

And then the Browns. What can be said? No playoffs for 18 years? Spell broken. Lose at Heinz Field for 17 year? Not any more. No playoff win since 1995? Forgotten. No road playoff victory since the 50’s? That is all history! Riding a 28 point first quarter, and compliments of 4 interceptions and a fumble recovery for a TD, the Browns held on as the Steelers made it interesting with 37 points in the last three quarters. But it wasn’t enough.

This was a weekend filled with excitement and fun. Home teams lost four games and only won twice. Backup Qbs started in place of former 1st overall picks. Brady played in his first wild card game as a visitor. Nickelodeon slimed Sean Payton. Refs blew a turnover call.

What a time to be alive.

To less important matters, I went 5-1 this weekend. The pass rush did not get to Brady and Alex Smith did not play, so I blame those for my one wrong pick. My 6 year old son went 4-2 (wrongly picking Seahawks and Steelers). My toddler is 3-3, tied with my wife, and our 7 year old daughter is at 2-4. What family fun!

Super Playoff Extravaganza

Last year, I was a bit intense when it came to my Playoff analysis, so this year will be toned down (in part because I still have a day job, and January is a crazy time). But first, I join the ranks of those grateful fans who were not sure they would see a season at all 6 months ago, who 3 months were worried the playoffs would be postponed or cancelled, but are now one day removed from playoff football with cheeks in the seats. Multiple teams have announced fans will be attending games, which is a bit of a miracle in itself.

To kick it off playoff season, I would like to hold myself accountable. After week 9, I sat down and predicted every game for the remainder of the season, and I did pretty well, with the exception of Arizona in the NFC and the Raiders in the AFC. I predicted a playoff field of Steelers at Titans, Raiders at Bills, and Browns at Ravens with Chiefs on bye in the AFC, and Seahawks at WFT, Buccaneers at Cardinals, and Rams at Saints with Packers on bye in the NFC. Las Vegas flopped, and were replaced by Indianapolis, and Chicago lucked out by Arizona’s collapse, getting into the playoffs by default after a 3 game win streak before a week 17 loss. A lesson from this; do not buy into teams on win streaks without taking into account the level of competition, margin of victory, and the luck involved in getting the win.

Enough about the past; let’s look at the games this weekend!

INDIANAPOLIS AT BUFFALO

Why the Colts can win: Indianapolis has a savvy veteran QB about to retire, and he wants his shot at a Super Bowl. With no glaring weakness on the defense most of the season, the offense finally started clicking well to end the year, with Taylor showing true workhorse talent, Hilton catching TDs again, and a bevy of depth players catching passes at WR, TE, and RB.

Why the Bills will win: The antithesis of Indy, the offense has shown no glaring weakness outside of spats of an inability to run. But the defense has come on strong against some good offenses to close the season. Allen and Diggs will fare better against a strong Colts defense than Rivers will fare against a resurgent Bills defense.

Buffalo 31 – Indianapolis 23

 

LOS ANGELES (RAMS) AT SEATTLE

Why the Seahawks can win: They are at home, the defense has seemingly found its groove, and Wilson had 40 TD passes to a pair of receivers who set the Yardage (Metcalf) and receptions (Lockett) record this year.

Why the Rams will win: First, in a counter to all the Seahawk points, the defense found its form against flailing Arizona, Philly, Jets teams, and Washington, San Fran, and LA team with injured starting QBs. Lockett only had more than 100 yards receiving once all season, and Metcalf averaged 5.5/100/1TD for the first 8 games, and 5/65/.3TD since. Wilson started the first 7 games completing 71.48% of his passes with 26 TD passes, 6 picks, and 19 sacks. In the last 9 games, he is at 66.56% with 14 TDs, 7 picks, and 28 sacks. The Rams defense is built to slow him down, with pressure up the middle with Donald, tight coverage on Metcalf and Lockett with Ramsey and Hill, and containment with Floyd, Brockers, and versatile safeties. If Kupp and Goff play, they should also have the advantage over the defense which may miss Jamal Adams.

Los Angeles 27 – Seattle 17

TAMPA BAY AT WASHINGTON

Why the Buccaneers can win: Tom Brady, and he has the most diverse and stacked offense of his career. Godwin and Evans alone are great, but Gronk is the worst at TE with Howard and Brate, and AB being added is hardly fair, and the O Line is great, and Tampa Bay is not short on RBs with two first round talents. The defense, ranked 8th in points, 6th in yards, and 5th in forced turnover, is fast and furious, with Devin White leading the way. Suh, JPP, Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield Jr., Shaq Barrett, Dean or Davis, Gholston; any of these guys can take over a game.  Wow this team is scary.

Why WFT will win: Pressure on Brady is the best chance to win. And Washington is better suited than anyone in these playoffs to make that happen. Chase Young leads former first rounders Montez Sweat, Ryan Kerrigan, Daron Payne, and Jonathan Allen. I also love the athleticism in the secondary, especially if Evans is out. Make brady hold it, and this defense, 7th in turnovers, will get to the GOAT. Plus, if Alex Smith plays, he is one of the best at managing the game at taking the safe play, something which could inhibit Tampa’s ability to feast off turnovers.

Washington 20 – Tampa Bay 16

BALTIMORE AT TENNESSEE

Why the Titans can win: Derrick Henry can control a game. Tannehill rates as a top 5 QB statistically the past 2 seasons. The defense has talent in spots. Tennessee has some good pass catcher, especially in AJ Brown.

Why the Ravens will win: They are scary and versatile on both sides of the ball. Lamar, Gus Edwards, Mark Ingram, and JK Dobbins are one of the best backfield combos ever (okay, maybe just in the last 25ish years). You can have any three of those guys in on the same play and have no idea where the ball will go. The receivers and tight ends are versatile. The defense is stacked at just about every level, but especially the line to stop King Henry.

Baltimore 37 – Tennessee 25

CHICAGO AT NEW ORLEANS

Why the Bears can win: Their defense has been good, and offense even better to end the midseason losing streak, and has been much better with Trubisky than with Foles. Montgomery has come on strong at the end of the season, Graham is doing something he didn’t do in Green Bay (make red zone catches for TDs), and Akiem Hicks makes the whole defense better. Plus, Alvin Kamara had a positive Covid test, and may miss the game as it is right around the 10 day mark from his positive test.

Why the Saints will win: Brees is in, Thomas may be back, Sanders has done well, the O Line has the best tackle tandem in football, the defense is top 5 in both points and yards as well as 3rd in turnovers. Chicago feasted on weak teams to stumble into the playoffs, and with Roquan Smith maybe missing the game, Brees will do what Rodgers did and quickly pick apart the weak links.

New Orleans 38 – Chicago 17

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH

Why the Steelers can win: They have a lot of talent at a lot of key positions. TJ Watt leads a well ranked and respected defense, and they get after the QB better than anyone. Juju, Claypool, and Johnson are all doing well, and Roethlisberger remembered he can throw deep.

Why the Browns will win: Roethlisberger throws rather poorly deep, the pass protection has been shoddy, the WRs drop ball, the running game has been no-existent, and the best way to stop a pass rush is to force them to play the run. Cleveland is going without their head coach and starting guard, but Hunt and Chubb are both bruisers with speed and good feet and good hands. Myles Garrett is out to prove he should be DPOY, not Watt (or Donald), and he has a point, he did about as much in fewer games with a surrounding cast lacking the talent the other two guys have.

Cleveland 27 – Pittsburgh 20