Return to Glory for the Patriots

In 2012, following a championship season and then a record setting season with the Packers, Director of Player Personnel Reggie McKenzie took the General Manager position with the ever struggling Oakland Raiders and did something horrific but almost necessary; he blew them up. He cut or traded a massive number of high priced veterans regained oodles (a fun and underused word) or draft picks, and chose some premium starters in the draft. This past season, following a previously unimaginable level of success, Bill Belichick lost his main man Tom Brady, and decided to do something so savy; he blew up the Patriots.

In a season where failure could readily be correlated with the wacky changes under Covid, the Patriots, already under a cap burden from their departed Quarterback hero, $31 million of dead cap, and over $45 million attributed to Injury Reserve (per Spotrac), it was a great season to saw “screw it” and prepare for the next year. Due to their 2020 Rest season, the Patriots approached the 2021 contracted cap year with over $69 million in cap space as of March 17th (per Draft Kings). New England used this cap space to shore up some holes and sign some vets, but it is time to turn to the draft and have some fun!

Round 1

We saw last season a Cam Newton who was still dangerous with the ball in his hands, but not so much when the ball left his hands. So let’s give him some guys to be confident throwing the ball to. At pick 15, New England snags any of three massive difference makers; Chase, Waddle, or Smith. Little more can be said of Ja’Marr Chase who had jaw dropping season for LSU in 2019 while still a teenager. He has everything you need in a receiver, but will likely be gone by 15. Waddle has speed, both sudden and long, and if not for an ankle injury may have matched his Heisman winning teammate in receiving stats. While slight and a bit undersized, he doesn’t have size concerns. DeVonta Smith, on the other hand, may be one of the lightest 1st round WRs drafted in the common era. He is skinny. I weigh more than him, and whenever that happens it is bad. But if there is any position to get away with weighing less than 183 pounds in the NFL, it is wide receiver. And with Smith’s skill set, route running, speed, silky smooth shifts of suddenness in the open field, and versatility as a returner as well, he is worth the risk. Rashod Bateman may have seemed early here a month ago, but he tested better than anticipated, and it more than backs up wat I see on tape. With great all around size, good routes, and deceptive speed for his size, he would not at all be a reach here.

Round 2

With the departure of his O line over the last few years, Beli is going to get some hog ups front. It starts with a safe and strong pick in Alijah Vera-Tucker. Getting him at 53 may seem rather unlikely, but there are so many good OL guys this year; safe guys may very well fall. Vera-Tucker has position versatility, strength, and size. He is perfect for New England. Other players who could slot here include Liam Eicheberg from Notre Dame, Trey Smith from Tennessee, Walker Little from Stanford, Alex Leatherwood from Alabama, or Jalen Mayfield from Michigan. These guys are all different. Liam is a true tackle, but maybe be the safest guy behind Vera-Tucker on the line in this draft. Smith is positionally versatile as well, but his more a mauling monster on the left with great size and strength. Little has almost no tape from the past two years, but played great in 18 and oozes potential. Leatherwood is all tape with great length, but is he a product of Saban? Mayfield played great against a lot of NFL pass rushers, but his testing was nearly abysmal from what was expected of a guy who shows smooth and quick movement off the line; will those limitations stop him at the next level?

Round 3

Sticking with O Line help Brady Christensen and James Hudson have already been highlighted by me in previous mocks, as have Ben Cleveland and D’Ante Smith. All are in play here. But for a new guy, I will go with Quinn Meinerz. I have only really mentioned him before, so let’s go deeper. This Wisconsin boy comes to the Senior Bowl basically flaunting a crop top for his jersey. He looked like a guy at the bar who watches football and talks about the Good Ol’ Days. Then his guy started one-on-ones and began to stonewall most everyone sent against him. He may not have looked athletic or quick, but he plays great. He then backed up his athleticism at his pro day with a 40 as fast as 4.86, and sub 4.5 and 7.5 shuttles and 3 cone drills. He can move. So grabbing this dude, who has flexibility at both guards and the pivot, would be total Belichick… if he is still there.

Round 4

With a couple picks in round 4, let’s get some more weapons for Newton and the future QB (see a pattern here?). Tutu Atwell is a similar player to Rondale Moore, but will likely be available far later. I am starting to wonder, aside from weight, why. Tutu tips that scales at under 170, lighter even than the slender Smith mentioned earlier. Atwell appears a more rounded receiver to me than Moore, though, and with better hands. His routes aren’t always crisp, but he does adjust well to off target balls. He has been exceptional for Louisville. Given I already noted New England may take an undersized hotrod at wide out in round 1, a different mold of guy to look at here is Sage Surratt. If you wants to watch a guy who shows all the size, toughness, and physicality of a dominant receiver, watch Surratt. At 6’3” and about 215lbs, Surratt is nearly the epitome of WR body types. Sadly, the reason you see him win 50/50 balls and boxing out defenders and stiff arming guys is because he has not shown a consistent ability to outrun or shake good defenders. While he has the hands, body control, and physicality you dream of for receivers, he lacks the speed and quickness, so round 4 makes sense for him. Also, I will not stop drumming for Amari Rodgers. Dude better not make it out of round 4, and should be gone by end of day 2. If he is still available here, grab him.

A compensation pick for New England is going to turn into the 2022 starter, Kellen Mond. Mond is all over the place on draft boards, and Simms even put him in his top 5 QBs for this draft. Don’t buy that. After Lawrence, Wilson is the likely #2 QB. After that, you wonder over success with Fields of potential in Lance at QBs 3 and 4. Mac Jones is the likely QB 5, then Kyle Trask would be 6, and with a great Pro Day showing health and tons of athleticism, Stanford’s Davis Mills is likely QB7. And what teams need QBs? Jacksonville, New York, and San Fran will grab QBs, meaning Darnold and Jimmy will be available this year or next, Watson will likely not get traded now (depending on his legal status) so Houston isn’t in the market. Washington Football team will grab one. Chicago likely views Dalton and Foles and stop gaps, so a 1st round QB makes sense. New Orleans and Carolina are wildcards, but unlikely to take guys high. Pitt will probably grab someone day two. With Darnold, Jimmy G, and eventually Watson becoming available, other QBs will drop. So basically…

   1st

Jax – Lawrence

NYJ – Wilson

SF – Lance

Den – Fields

Chi – Jones

   2nd

Car – Trask

Pitt - Mills

Who else needs a QB early? Mond will drop to New England as a compensatory round 4 pick.

Round 5

I swear I haven’t been ignoring the defense, but they were pretty good still last year even without basically any forced fumbles and missing two starters to COVID opt outs. Time to address a weakness, though. Grabbing Kary Vincent Jr. from LSU makes sense. He is FAST. He ran a 10.01 100 meter at LSU. He is smaller at 5’10”, but has good length for his frame. He plays hard and fast, a little undisciplined at times, but Belichick makes guys disciplined, so going to a detail minded coach could make Vincent a huge steal.

Another corner could be Robert Rochell. He also lacks ideal size, but is a bit taller, longer, and heavier. He was spectacular at Central Arkansas, but wilted under the lights of the Senior Bowl. He overcame a recruiting concern due to injury, has showcased some great tested speed, and appears a dedicated and determined player. His pro day was amazing with a sub 4.4 40, 3 Cone under 6.85, vert over 42 inches, and broad jumping more than 11 feet. After the pro day and with the great tape he has from previous seasons, unlikely he is still here. But if his Senior Bowl caused his stock to plummet, he may be a steal here.

Round 6

Going back to the offense, let’s throw another receiver the Pat’s way. If Nico Collins is still here, steal him. His pro day was great, especially for his size, but Nico looks less polished and less athletic than Donovan Peoples-Jones, who some-freaking-how lasted until round 6 last year. The Patriots may unload N’Keal Harry, in which case Collins replaces the size and with better speed and quickness. Again, not likely he is still here, but crazier things have happened in the 6th round for the Patriots.

Round 7

Let’s end with one more weapon- Chris Evans. No, not the hunky Captain America actor. The running back from Michigan who hasn’t really done anything on the field since being suspended from the 2019 season. I love what I know about his character. He appears to be a hard worker, dedicated and loyal, and a tempting athlete. I have seen him mostly as an UDFA, but I will let Beli have him here. His 3 Cone drill of 6.56 is insanely good. His vert and broad were both great, and he displayed adequate to good speed in his shuttle (4.14) and 40 (4.44). The biggest question to me is why he did next t nothing form the Wolverines last year.

15 – DeVonta Smith

46 – Liam Eichenberg

96 – Quinn Meinerz

120 – Tutu Atwell

122 – Sage Surratt

139 – Kellen Mond

177 – Kary Vincent Jr

188 – Robert Rochell

197 – Nico Collins

242 – Chris Evans

Kansas City Mock Draft

(As a disclaimer, I wrote this up last week, I just didn't publish it yet, so some Pro Day performances have since occurred.)

In this edition of “Dad Draft,” I approach the draft from the perspective of another team who basically has it all. But, most importantly, they have the coach who maximizes the best parts of a players’ game instead of seeing largely what they can’t do. Most coaches who saw a fast, undersized, non-major program running back with character concerns passed without worry. This guy grabbed him, developed him, and now has his QB throw super deep where no one can keep up, or runs jet sweeps, and employs short, explosive routes where the guy can make room. Oh, and that QB?  Another “project” player now considered best at the position.

Welcome to the Kansas City Chiefs.

I really wanted to take this draft and trade it for almost all future picks. After the first wave of free agency, KC has addressed most of their obvious holes, and is now looking for just a hit or two from this years draft. They have a lot of guys to pay from their sustained success, and though the bell ain’t tolling yet, the bill will come due. They will need consistent contribution from draft classes really starting next year, but since they could need some development, I determined to keep this draft class. Also, KC had some depth issues exposed last year (especially on the line at the end of the year). Though they signed a bunch of guys there, getting some young guys in to become future starters will be a huge benefit. Let’s go!

Round 1

I actually found a trade partner for this one. Immediately getting three day 2 picks plus three day 3 picks was hard to ignore, so I grabbed it. That being said, Grabbing hogs up front is a big need. Sam Cosmi is a giant at tackle, with athleticism to spare. His pro day was spectacular, and he only allowed a pressure rate of 2.17%, half the rate of Dillon Radunz who played in the FCS and fewer pressures than Rashawn Slater, though Texas is a far more pass happy team. Teven Jenkins out of OK State was another big guy out at tackle who could fit in well with KC, or versatile OL prospect Alijah Vera-Tucker from USC. Both are strong enough and athletic enough to pass block , but also possess the grit and aggression for success as a run blocker.

The likelihood is there are too many quality tackles, so guys are gonna be falling. PFF has ten offensive line players in their top 40. There are also good, strong prospects later on, so KC may opt to go a different route here. Sammy Watkins has been rather underwhelming as a #2 receiver, and while there are a lot of gadget players, no one is a true #2 receiver behind Hill (though Kelce at TE is the real #1 receiver, with Hill as the playmaker, or #1B). Going receiver here makes some sense. After all, KC drafted an RB last year here; let’s amp up the horse power on this thing! Kadarius Toney could be phenomenal here. He has speed, strength, and is a proven weapon on a team where defenses are forced to focus on the tight end. While he might have some size concerns as an outside weapon, and he dropped about everything during one-on-ones at the Senior Bowl, he had a good catch rate for his career as well as breaking an obscene 32 tackles on 80 receptions since 2019. Outstanding testing would slot him here. Other wise, LSU’s Terrace Marshall Jr. fits. He has height, speed, and youth. The guy excelled at LSU even after Chase opted out, and Burrow, Jefferson, and CEH left for the draft. This may also be early, though, as WR has a definite tier 1 followed by a logjammed tier 2.

Round 2

Because I traded my day 1 pick in the mock, I was able to grab Zaven Collins here. I highlighted him in my Green Bay mock, but let me reiterate some stuff here. A guy with this much size should not be this good in coverage. He moves well, anticipates zones and the routes being run behind him, clogs lanes, watches the QB, and blitzes phenomenally.  He hits with authority, typically wraps up, and if he develops a talent to shed blockers better, look out. He would be able to hold the MLB spot for Spagnuolo for a decade plus.

Also players to look for would be cornerbacks. Richie Grant, Tyson Campbell, or Eric Stokes. Tyson Campbell has some good length to him, but Stokes is blazing fast (running multiple electric timed sub 4.3s this off season). Any of these players have the ability to hold the outside or man the slot. There may be some concerns with workout warrior for Stokes, but he improved immensely as a player since getting to Athens and really has made a lot of good plays on the ball.

If these plays don’t tickle your fancy, let’s grab a different Georgia player at a position of need. Azeez Ojulari plays EDGE, and has the length, speed, and strength to excel. He also has some ability to stack and shed as a run defender, and even drop into coverage a bit, so he isn’t a one trick pony. Then again, after his testing day, he may not be available even when the Chiefs pick in round 1.

Round 3

Again, even with Reinforcements from Joe Thuney and Kyle Long, I want there to be more bodies in front of Mahomes. James Hudson is a tackle prospect with a good physical presence. He isn’t overly tall at 6’4”, and his arms or 33” which isn’t great, but he is low enough to get leverage with that arm length. He played exceptionally for the Bear Cats this past year, and has risen well up the boards.

Another good weapon for Mahomes could be Tylan Wallace. Wallace has come back from injury and created some great tape for scouts. He has fantastic arm length and good hands for someone under 6 foot, and is just under 200lbs, so he isn’t a stick. His explosive plays last year carried the Cowboys.

Round 4

A few guys I mentioned on the Packers who would be amazing here would be Spencer Brown, Amari Rodgers, or Ben Cleveland. So let’s discuss someone new; Dylan Moses. I haven’t seen him go early in these mock drafts, and I was able to get him in the 4th, alongside Josh Myers. Moses slid down boards after a boring year lacking splash plays, likely as he continued to return to form after a torn ACL. He could be a great value pick, as he has the size, athleticism, and dedication you want from a thumper in the middle.

Josh Myers is explosive out of his stance, is strong, and has experience at Guard and Center. He doesn’t work the second level with ease, but he is a great collegiate center. Powerful and quick centers are great. Getting one in day 3 is even better.

Round 5

CEH is good, but let’s grab a running back. Kylin Hill out of Mississippi State has some danged good size at 5’10”, 215lbs. His arms aren’t short at 31”, and he has near 10” hands. That is a physical body. He also has suddenness, violence, and aggression in his runs. His speed on longer runs can put distance between him and defenders. He generated a bunch of yardage against SEC defenses, even without a consistent passing game needing the defenses attention. Kansas City has excelled with late round RBs before, and pairing Hill with CEH would save hits and damage to the 1st rounder without a noticeable drop off in on field talent.

Round 6

Grabbing a couple more edge players here makes sense. Daelin Hayes and Malik Herring are two prospects to watch for KC. Hayes, coming out of Notre Dame, has tweener size, but a good deal of athleticism as well. While he isn’t a great run defender due to his size, he at least is lane disciplined and clogs lanes. He can drop back in coverage, and could benefit from a 15-25lbs weight loss to become a more mobile outside backer/EDGE player unless you want him rushing the passer 85% of the time. Really more of a pass rushing D End at his size. Herring, yet another Georgia player, generated 41 pressures in 2019, but his stat sheet isn’t stuffed. He wreaks havoc, but doesn’t tend to get to the ball most plays. A torn ACL at the Senior bowl will drop him further as he will be untested and his rookie season is likely already over.

Round 7

Given how Georgia has only had sporadic success over the years, they sure have come on strong the last couple seasons. Which brings yet another Georgia player up here. Safety Mark Webb demonstrated more than adequate speed for the position with a 4.5 40, but showed some great explosion with an 11’4” broad jump. Webb is 6’1” and 210lbs, so good size with some great numbers. Sticking with safety, Damar Hamlin from Pitt may be good. He is a touch smaller than Webb and slower in testing. But Hamlin has better game tape, so either in round 7 makes sense.

If KC wants to solidify their linebackers, maybe grabbing Derrik Barnes here makes sense. Barnes has operated a lot as a rush linebacker, but he has some great size at 6’4”, 245lbs, and he ran a 4.57 40 while putting up 29 reps on the bench and a 37 inch vertical. He generated some big plays at Purdue, hits hard, brings hit weight to the tackle, and shows versatility. He isn’t the best, most fluid, or fastest, but that is why he is here in round 7 for me. However, the testing would honestly push him a up a round for me. I really did not expect him to test this well.

1: Sam Cosmi (OT, Texas)

2: Richie Grant (CB, UCF)

3: James Hudson (OT, Cincinnati)

4: Dylan Moses (LB, Alabama)

5: Kylin Hill (RB, MissSt)

6: Daelin Hayes (ND, Edge)

7: Mark Webb (S, Georgia)

Packers Mock Draft

My life has become very busy, so football has sadly been pushed back. But as we are now in full on Pro Day season, I must be mock drafting!

I will run mock drafts for a few teams in a few different posts. What I will do is basically highlight a few players who would slot well to the the team relative to what I am able to do in PFF’s mock draft simulator. Go ahead and play with it, and watch a week fly by!

I will start with a team with established starters at basically every position, but a great lack of depth behind those established starters. Every marquee position has a star player; QB, OT, and WR may be best at their positions, and D Tackle, pass rusher, and DB are all established stars. That’s right, my friends; the Green Bay Packers. After infuriating their fan base last year by trading up to draft Jordan Love, they only had one player drafted on each side of the ball play more than 10% of the team snaps, and neither were over 20%. After most everyone projected wide receiver to be a point of focus, not one was picked. This year, the Packers are using a lot of restructures to be under the cap, so they need some big hits in the draft to bring in low cost players to pull attention from players like Davante Adams, or hold their own in coverage while QBs avoid Jaire Alexander.

Let’s fix the Packers!

Round 1

My third Mock for this team, Micah Parsons fell to 29, so I grabbed him. This is highly unlikely! I will not be relying upon anything as improbable as that to occur, but a fall for Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is possible. He is undersized for a lineback, and unless he tests extremely well, teams may see him as a man without a position (Pro Day March 31). More likely is Zaven Collins. He is the best graded coverage linebacker in this draft, and at 6’4”, 260lbs, he is also a talented and reliable rush and tackle ‘backer (Pro Day April 2). I would take any of these three in a heartbeat, and solidifies the only position group (ILB) without an established star player.

If none of these three are there, grabbing a high end corner may do. Asante Samuel Jr and Greg Newsome are possibilities. However, I am hesitant with them largely because of their meteoric rises as of late. Newsome offers more outside corner size and skill set, while Samuel could also hold his own outside or man the slot. Newsome already tested amazing, and I want to see a TON of great testing from Samuel before being confident in him as a Day 1 guy (Pro Day March 31).

Lastly, if Rashod Bateman is still available, I would strongly consider him. Even before running a sub 4.4 in testing this spring, Bateman showed good speed, smooth routes, and both tracked the ball and won 50/50s. He is a polished receiver with experience outside and in the slot.

Round 2

Moving forward, the picks somewhat depend on what the Packers have already picked, obviously, but if Rondale Moore is still available, I would be hard pressed to avoid him. The kid is so strong, so explosive, and so multi-dimensional. He has an injury history, as well as inconsistent hands, but with good health he will be a great gadget at worst or an accomplished threat at all three levels, similar to Tyler Lockett’s career trajectory (Pro Day March 23).

But receiver seems deeper to me than defensive back in this draft, so I would love to see Elijah Molden be picked here. Most of the time, you want a defensive back to have at least 2 of 3 coveted traits; size, speed, skill. Molden lacks size, and he is not expected to test well, meaning his speed is also lacking. But Molden also possesses two other trait; smarts and spirit. The dude is like the Rudy story of this draft. He is a tenacious defender, capable in the slot or safety position, a sure tackler, and is quick to react in coverage. The guy attacks the ball whether in the air or in a runner's arms without unduly risking missing the tackle or blowing his coverage (Pro Day March 30).

Another player I would consider is Liam Eichenberg. He may be the safest pick at tackle this year, but safe isn’t sexy, so he could see a drop. He has size, experience, length: if he does fall down the boards, the Packers would be happy to have a guy hold down the left side until Bakhtiari is healed up from his ACL and then jump to the right side (Pro Day March 31).

Round 3

Given the state of things, Kelvin Joseph may very well be gone before Asante Samuel, but I can dream. Joseph transferred from LSU, and only has one real year of play under his belt, but he balled out and may test incredibly. He could be a day 1 guy, but with PFF holding him ranked north of 100, I’d take him with pick 92. It is expected he will test very well, maybe even with 4.3 range speed, which would mean he goes before this slot (Pro Day March 31).

Since Joseph is probably gone, I would easily look back to wide receiver at the 92nd pick. Amon Ra St Brown may join his big brother in Green Bay. He could have benefited from another year at USC, but he has done enough to show he can belong in the NFL. He will just not get drafted high. He largely excelled as a slot guy, but had some success outside as well (Pro Day March 24). Sage Surratt is also a guy to watch. He has a book build at 6'2", 215lbs, and 32 inch arms. His tape before injury and opt out is fantastic, but he does not possess great athletic traits, He is fast enough, quick enough, and jumps high enough, but he is not going to be winning foot races. Sage boxes out defenders and loses guys with his route running, though, so he may work well with Rodgers (Pro Day March 31).

Going back to defense as a safe pick, I looked at a guy at the line of scrimmage, man-to-man, and deep. Levi Onwuzurike has pretty good size. A nice first step, and had a great last season, but it was in 2019 having opted out last year (Pro Day March 30). Ben St-Juste has great size and played very well at the Senior Bowl. He has some great tape through his career (Pro Day April 1). Hamsah Nasirlideen has even better size, and brings it as a run defender. He may be a hybrid box safety (Pro Day March 30). Another potential target is Hunter Long out of Boston College. He is well sized, boxes out defenders, runs pretty good routes, blocks well, but is not an athlete. He did not create much separation, and throws had to be well placed or made to give him a jump ball chance, which he admittedly tended to win (Pro Day March 26).

Round 4

With 2 picks in the 4th round, the Packers have a lot of good options here. If Amari Rodgers is still available, run the card up there. I would even grab him in the 3rd, to be honest, but with PFFs rank, I have been able to get him in the 130s. He was the best receiver at Clemson this year, and is a hard nosed competitor with position versatility. Rodgers has long speed, and, in spite of not great testing, runs sharp routes and is quick out of breaks. His testing numbers are a positive indicator of what he voiced in his “Dream Draft Scenario” during an interview; he can be the slot receiver Green Bay hasn’t had since Randall Cobb. They are within a half of inch in height, but Rodgers weighs 20lbs more, and it showed in his bench press, putting up 24 reps to Cobb’s 16. Rodgers’ 40 time matched the average of Cobb’s hand time and electric timed results at the combine. Cobb had a faster 10 yard split (1.58 to 1.66), but Rodgers won the last 20 ( 1.85 to 1.91). Cobb slightly edged out a win in the vert (by .5 inches), the Short Shuttle (by .02 seconds) and the 3 cone (by .04 seconds), while Rodgers won the Broad jump by a couple inches. He may be my Draft Darling of 2021. He was a productive backup behind Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross in 2019 not missing a single game after tearing his ACL in spring practice, and even out produced Hunter Renfrow in 2018, while also returning punts. And per Sports Reference, he had over 250 collegiate touches with no fumbles.  

Two others I would definitely be more than satisfied with are Ben Cleveland and Trey Smith. Both are SEC interior blockers, but I would grade Trey above Ben easily. Trey Smith had a missed season after it was discovered he had blood clots, but appears to be better now. When he came back , Tennessee moved him from his All-Freshman LT spot to LG, and he played at an All American level. Trey did well at the Senior Bowl one-on-ones, but he may have been a big measurements winner. He came in at north of 330lbs while looking 20lbs lighter with nearly 34 inch arms (Pro Day March 25). Cleveland is another Senior Bowl measurement winner He is a strong dude, powerful, and looks like a lean tackle, but he actually weighed in at over 350lbs. The dude looks 310lbs. He is a little tall at 6’6”, and he didn’t become a full starter until this past year, but he earned an All-SEC spot and may end up being one of those no-nonsense, dependable guys. He only put up 30 reps on the bench after threatening to break the record (49 or 51], and stories abound of him benching 50 reps of 225 3 years ago. He did also test well with an unofficial 4.85 40.

Sticking on the O-Line, if none of the above are there, either Brady Christensen or D’Ante Smith have a lot of differences in the way I view them. Smith is all potential, with a rare body needing some focused weight lifting. He is 6’5” and under 300lbs, but has arms over 35” long. He was a three year starter at East Carolina, and does well with a one-on-one match up. He needs to improve his play strength and adjust to switches and stunts better, but he is a rare body type with success in college, when on the field (Pro Day March 30). Brady is established and safe, but with some limitations. However, he was on track this past year to break PFFs record for highest graded season by a tackle ever, and ended as a consensus All American. Dude had some good tape, and projects as a lower quality Liam Eichenberg; safe, but not sexy. Coming from BYU instead of Notre Dame, that drops him 2 rounds (Pro Day March 26). Quinn Meinerz has also shot up boards. He was phenomenal at the Senior Bowl. As a DIII guy he has some competition concerns, but he largely laid those to rest by stonewalling most everyone he faced in one-on-ones. He also has position versatility at Guard or Center, something GB can use depending on if they flip Elgton Jenkins to pivot or keep him at LG… or LT for a while.

…Wow, Green Bay sure isn’t stable in the trenches right now…

Round 5

Another 2 picks! This is the round where I focus on picking up guys who were either really good college players, but it is a question of if they have the ability to transition to the next level, or the really good athletes who never really put it together in college. Let’s focus on Defensive Line. Teammates Jay Tufele and Marlon Tuipulotu are both well sized, but I would rather take Marlon. They are good enough in both run and pass defense, and played well together. As second fiddle to Kenny Clark, both could do well as disruptive defenders (Pro Day March 24). Milton Williams will likely be a riser now, but with PFFs rank, I would take him here. The guy is underweight for interior at 278, but has some serious strength beyond his size. Adding 20 pounds would make him even scarier to me (Pro Day March 18).

Spencer Brown is not the sort of tackle I normally like; he is so tall, and lean. At 6’8” and 314 lbs at the Senior Bowl (nearly 25lbs above his listed weight), he actually showed more power than anticipated, and he frequently gets low in his stance and doesn’t come out immediately high. His long arms are a great asset, and as long as he adds some more sand in his pants, I would trust him more (Pro Day March 22). However, if Cornerback hasn't been addressed yet, Paulson Adebo tends to be available in these mock drafts at about this time. He was a PBU machine in 2018 and 2019 before opting out 2020. He has length and some speed to him, is tenacious, and tackles aggressively. I like Stanford guys, and would love to have this guys on my team (Pro Day March 19)

Round 6

2 more picks in this round, too! Let’s grab another offensive line guy. With Bak hurt, Wagner cut, and Linsley in LA, the Packers need a lot of help up front, hence my attention. Alaric Jackson out of Iowa is so technically sound, and currently rated at 198 by PFF. He gets to the second level and latches on, has a good foundation and knee bend, adjusts and counters well to moves, and does well at hand fighting. His arms are a touch shorter than I would like, especially relative to his height, but he is a strong pick from a school with a lot of successful linemen, and I would love him in the 6th (Pro Day March 22).

This could be a time to find a rangy receiver, though. Josh Palmer out of Tennessee and Marquez Stevenson out of Houston are intriguing. Stevenson is a burner, but slightly undersized. He excelled as a quick receiver, taking slants and crossing routes the distance, but also won a lot of deep balls. Better ball placement from his QB and he would have had a lot more success. He is sudden in his movements, and dangerous making guys miss after the catch and in the return game (Pro Day April 9). Palmer is still learning to play, having only one year of time before college, but has a great body for the position. He is tall enough at 6’1” and weighs 210lbs, as well as having 33 inch arms. He did quite well in one-on-ones at the Senior Bowl, better than his up and down college career would suggest. (Pro Day March 25).

Also, Tre McKitty from Georgia at Tight End may work here. The offenses he was in didn’t ask him to do much, but he has a lot of good traits for the position. He has shown suddenness in his route running, great hands, and he is also a talented blocker.

Round 7

This is when I like to find defensive line guys. Solid but not splashy DLine play can be found late, and the Packers have utilized a few of them over the years. Ta’Quon Graham out of Texas may be long gone, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him here. He has nearly 35 inch arms and weighs just under 300lbs. But he lost a lot at the Senior Bowl, so his stock likely dropped. He is more of an athlete and disruptor than a space eating tackle (Pro Day March 30). A true space eater would be Khyiris Tonga. He is an older player, and a converted Tight End, but he is a big bodied guy who anchored the BYU line (Pro Day March 26). Janarius Robinson is a guy who looks like an edge rusher, but plays like a defensive end. He came to the pro day at 6’5” and 266lbs, but with 36 inch arms. He labors when moving in space, is not explosive off the line, and does not show speed to chase down people. At that point, he may as well just ad 20-30lbs to his frame and play as a hand in the dirt lineman (Pro Day March 31). Tristen Hoge is another BYU lineman who benefitted from a successful season. He played well in 2020, but outside of a good, driving run blocker, does nothing exceptional. He could be a solid multi-year starter who does nothing wrong. The perfect lineman! (Pro Day March 30). Tony Fields II lacks size and pop as a run defender, but plays like crazy and was consistently productive. He may be more of a nickel linebacker, but needs to test well to be strongly considered am NFL prospect (Pro Day March 18).

UDFA

Three guys I would like as undrafted targets are Chris Evans, Matt Bushman, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette. Evans is athletic and did well for Michigan as a running back early on, but a suspension and offensive scheme change relegated him to neglibile production over the last two years (Pro Day March 26). Matt Bushman was rated a 3rd round tight end, but determined another year with a promising BYU offense would put him in the top TE discussion. A ruptured Achilles a week before the first game of the season squandered that. But he is running and sprinting again, which is good news. He was a good tight end, though not overly athletic. Scouts will want to see the testing numbers show his injury is behind him (Pro Day March 26). Ihmir has some obvious character concerns with a stupid injury and a compromised driving infraction, but he looks fast and smooth on the field. His return ability showcases his long speed even better as he seems to still be speeding up after 60 yards, even with a nice burst to start. He is a bit light, but he looks solidly built (Pro Day March 22).

23: Zaven Collins

62: Elijah Molden

92: Kelvin Joseph

135: Amari Rodgers

142: Trey Smith

173: Marlon Tuipulotu 

212: Alaric Jackson

218: Josh Palmer

254: Khyiris Tonga

UDFAs: Tristen Hoge, Chris Evans, Matt Bushman, Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Janarius Robinson 

Can we just have the Big Game next week?

I never actually put out my Division Round Preview or Follow up. Shame. But we are now at Championship Sunday! 2 games on Sunday pitting 2 first ballot Hall of Fame quarterbacks against each other, and 2 ultra-exciting quarterbacks on the other side. While some of these games this post season have lacked the sizzle, fireworks, or excitement we expected, there has at least been some suspense and surprises.

TAMPA BAY at GREEN BAY

Two former divisional opponents from the former NFC Central face off in a playoff addition of the Battle of the Bays. What hasn’t been said of these quarterbacks? What hasn’t been said of this Bucs defense? Are the rankings for these teams appropriate?

Why Tampa can win: It is hard to bet against Brady, and harder still when he has one of the better defenses and the deepest offensive weapons and possibly best O line he has ever had in a 20 year career. Mike Evans has a historical career already, with 7 straight 1,000 yard seasons. Godwin is a fantastic slot and outside receiver, and a near perfect compliment to Evans. The tight ends are great even with Howard on IR considering Brate and Gronk, who can run, catch, and block. Antonio Brown was once the best wide out in the game. Tyler Johnson snagged one of the best catches of the year last week. Scotty Miller had the breakout play of the game last week to really get the ball moving into a win over the Saints. Plus, two fantastic rushers in Fournette and Jones. On defense, the team is stacked with early picks. David (2nd)-White (5th overall) and backed up by Kevin Minter if available (is the best linebacker combo since Willis-Bowman, no offense intended to Wagner-Wright. Suh (2nd overall), Pierre-Paul (1st), and Barrett may be reinforced by Vita Vea (1st). In the back end, Winfield, Davis, Murphy-Bunting (all 2nd round), Dean (3rd), and Whitehead (4th) attack the ball in the air and swarm while in the ball carrier’s hands. The talent and performance of these players demonstrate a fantastic job by the scouting department.

This team is the best run defense in the NFL, allowing a mere 80.6 yards per game. They allowed six 100 yard rushing teams in 18 games, and only Dalvin Cook went over 100 yards. Only two other running backs gained more than 50 yards. The Bucs are top 10 in scoring and turnovers for both offense and defense. They have won the last 7 road games. They just (likely) ended Drew Brees’ career with his worst game in a decade. The offense has only been held under 21 points twice, and are riding a 6 game streak of at least 26 points, all wins. The Offensive line has protected Brady the last two games against powerful pass rush teams, even with losing starting guard Alex Cappa  to a broken ankle. With brady attempting to assert he was the driving force of the 2 decade Patriot Dynasty, he is piloting this team perfectly.

Why Green Bay will win: For starters, this team is probably even better than their rankings, which is scary. The offense is tops in points, 5th in yards, and fewest giveaways. The defense is top 10 against the pass, and has really slowed down running backs better the last two months, not allowing a 100 yard rusher since week 10, a gauntlet which included Montgomery twice, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Cam Akers. Jaire has nearly erased his side of the field, and blanked Evans in the week 6 meeting. Savage and Amos are playing significantly better, Kenny Clark is no longer slowed by the pulled groin, Gary and Preston are playing wonderfully opposite Z Smith, and Krys Barnes in the middle playing the enforcer allows Kirksey to range and be a playmaker instead of an every down thumper, collecting sacks and picks since the switch was made. The defense forced nearly three times as many turnovers since week 8 as before (14 vs 5). This defense is playing better than ever.

On the other side of the ball, the Packers just demolished the #1 defense, nearly doubling them up in points and yards, and that was with a collection of drops, underthrows, and overthrows, and near 200 yards rushing. Week 6 was Davante Adams first game back from a hamstring pull, which he is now healed up from (tidbit - the Packers are winless the first game Adams comes back from injury). Allen Lazard is back from a core muscle injury, MVS has been much improved since week 8, increasing his catch rate by 25%, putting up 5 touchdowns with 462 yards at 22 yards per catch. Taylor, Sternberger, St Brown, Dafney, and Dillon have each scored their first TDs since this game, adding weapons and variance to an already scary offense. Aaron Jones has been running like a man possessed, and Williams and Dillon are like cannon balls when they run straight at a defense. Rodgers is unlikely to throw what basically amounts to 2 pick sixes again. The team is more solid at left tackle as Bakhtiari left the week 6 game and Wagner was almost a turnstile there the rest of the game. Since week 6, the only thing which has really slowed this offense is drops, which stalled them in loses to Minnesota and Indianapolis, and made things interesting against Jacksonville, Chicago, and Carolina. With three viable running backs, three reliable receivers, versatile tight ends, and a line playing much better than they did 14 weeks ago, this offense should click.

Lastly, let’s remember this game will be played in Green Bay in January, not Tampa Bay in October. The Packers flew from 50 and overcast to 90 and sunny for the first game. Tampa bay temperatures were over 80 for the New Year and days in the 70’s this week, and they will be flying to ice and possible snow this weekend. Physiological studies show a drop in performance of about 5-10% for every 10 degrees difference than what an athlete is currently acclimated to. This near 50 degree drop will affect these guys, creating a homefield advantage even with limited attendance.

BOLD PREDICITON: Brady is sacked less than twice, but is hurried enough he completes about half his passes and a interception. 

Packers 30 – Buccaneers 22

BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY

These two Quarterbacks are the future of the AFC. After a decade of a half of Manning and Brady dueling, we will see these two be the pinnacle of the conference for the foreseeable future. 

Why Kansas City can win: You saw what they were still able to accomplish even without Mahomes last week. The defense held Cleveland to under 20 points. Hill and Kelce alone are fantastic, but add in the versatile weapons in Hardman, Pringle, Bell, CEH (if healthy), and former top 5 pick in Sammy Watkins, and this offense is amazing. They went 2-1 without Mahomes last year, and closed out a playoff win with Matt Moore last week with him throwing it. But if Mahomes comes back healthy, this offense is one of the most creative and effective in the common era. Mahomes makes his own plays, sandlots within the system, and finds guys deep, middle, and runs, frustrating every defense. Andy Reid is aggressive, and can get away with it. Even if his team is stopped on fourth down or giveaway the football, they are likely to have a scoring drive afterwards anyways, propelled by a top 5 team in scoring percentage.

Speaking of defense, these guys blitz, throwing off timing, and find a way to grab 16 interceptions, top 5 in the league. While no player has more than 100 tackles, over a dozen have at least 35. Sacks are spread out, interceptions are spread out, and over a dozen players have passes defensed. This is a defense without any one player responsible for the production. It is a team defense, without any glaring weakness.

Why Buffalo will win: There are some issues with Kansas City, and while none are detrimental in themselves, they can add up. The offense is streaky, the redzone defense is abysmal, the run defense is poor, and the pass defense is middle of the pack. They also have not won by more than 6 points since the Jets beatdown in week 8, closing close games against Carolina, Vegas, Denver, and Atlanta. Buffalo has a high octane offense, led by Allen’s arms buoyed by Allen’s legs, and sometimes a running back does something. With Diggs, Brown, Beasley, and Knox as main targets, and Singletary out of the backfield, you can blanket Diggs, but it leaves others guys open, and Allen will more than likely find them. A ferocious KC pass rush withered Buffalo in week 6, even without recording a sack. But Buffalo has only allowed more than two sacks once since that game, and that was a 7 sack game in a win against Seattle. They are also the best 3rd down offense in the league.

The defense has been streaky, but been up to the task these playoffs. They held strong in the red zone against Indy, and completely halted the Baltimore offense. They have been swarming and flocking, knocking down passes, taking away favorite targets, and keeping the ball in front of them. They got to Lamar Jackson 4 times and held him to under 200 yards rush and pass yards, a combined feat only accomplished twice this season, by KC. White, Hyde, Edmonds, Oliver, Hughes, Milano, and Klein have each been game wreakers at time. This is another team defense, with no player with more than 5 sacks, but 14 recording at least one, and 17 players recording defended passes. It is hard to find the weakness in the defense, because the whole unit is good.

BOLD PREDICTION: Mahomes plays this game, but is hampered by the combination of injuries to his toe, pinched nerve, and head trauma enough he gets pulled in the 4th quarter with his team down more than two TDs. 

Bills 38 – Chiefs 34

 

Only the Best Remain

Here we are in the Divisional Round. I think most anyone outside the losing team fanbases would agree the better teams won in the Wildcard round. We now have a collection of eight fantastic teams vying for a spot in their respective Conference Championship game. Who will prevail?

LA RAMS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

When the #1 Defense faces the #1 Offense in the playoffs, defense usually wins. Rodger is 0-2 against the #1 Defense in the playoffs. However, when the QB with the most TDs faces the Defense giving up the least, the QB usually wins. So historical trends won't work well here. Let's look at these teams, not past teams.

Why LA can win: That defense is stacked. They have ballhawk safeties, smothering CBs, and a D line stacked with first rounders in Floyd, Brockers, and of course Aaron Donald. Donald, even with near broken ribs, is likely to wreck the Packer O Line while demanding double teams. With short and quick passes likely, Ramsey, Hill, and Williams will clamp down and press the Packer WRs who have shown against Carolina and Tampa Bay they do not excel at creating early separation. Cam Akers is running wild for the offense, breaking team records for rookie playoff performances, which allows Goff to operate play action and calmly find Woods, Kupp, or Higbee for deep shots. 

Why GB will win: They have a deep O Line which, even missing All Pro Bakhtiari, is deep and talented. The line will buy enough time for some rhythm throws and some deep shots. Davante Adams has almost disappeared in some games, but rarely is held for under 100 yards and no TDs. Tonyan has 11 TDs on the year as a TE. Jones, Williams, and Dillon are versatile as a RB group. And the defense has been stopping the run as of late. With Goff sporting a broken thumb, and the Rams having to adjust to a 40 degree drop in temperature, it should swing things in favor of the home team.

Green Bay 27 - LA 16

BALTIMORE RAVENS at BUFFALO BILLS

Two dynamic QBs running two vastly different offenses. Which QB will blink first? Both won their first playoff game last week, but only one will win their second.

Why Baltimore can win: The Baltimore offense is nearly unpredictable. They have 4 amazing runners led by Jackson, running for over 3000 yards in back-to-back seasons. You never know where the ball will go, causing hesitation, which leads to scores. The defense is stacked with talent at every level, with Peters, Smith, Humphrey, Campbell, and more locking down the pass and stopping the run dead in it's tracks. 

Why Buffalo will win: Buffalo is a pass first team with a bevy of good pass catchers. They have multiple speed guys, multiple chain movers, and Stefon Diggs may be the best all around WR in football (I felt that last year, by the way). The run game is weak, but the Allen creates an extra wrinkle. Baltimore thrives on turnovers, so as long as Allen doesn't play Superman, Buffalo should win.

Buffalo 31 - Baltimore 30

CLEVELAND BROWNS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

After near 3 weeks rest, the KC starters will take the field again. Reid prepares well after byes, compiling a career 21-5 mark after a week without a game. The Browns rocked the Steelers last week even without their starting G, two CBs, and Head Coach. Will their luck continue?

Why Cleveland can win: They are the ultimate team right now. While Myles Garrett is certainly a star, the rest of the team is so reliant and dependent on the whole to succeed. Landry, Chubb, Hunt, Mayfield, Ward are all good players, but not the star power typically associated with a Super Bowl contender. They run so well, and that is what KC has trouble stopping. They also play pretty disciplined defense, and Mahomes has been so human as of late. With KC not winning a game by more than 6 since beating the mid-season Jets, Cleveland can pull of an upset.

Why Kansas City will win: Reid is a magician and Mahomes is amazing. Combined with the fastest WR group in the league, the best TE, and a stacked defense, this team is the upgraded version of the Manning-Dungy Colts. I may pick against them, but I would never put money on this team losing. The pressure will be on Mayfield to win it, and he just won't.

Kansas City 37 - Cleveland 24

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The History Channel game! Brady is ousting George Blanda from record books. Brees is still efficiently winning game. Both have dominant defenses and a run came to compliment the QB. No matter who wins this game, they will likely be the NFC Champion.

Why New Orleans can win: Did you see what they did the Tampa (twice!!) this year? They annihilated them (TWICE!!!). The ame is no longer on Brees alone. They have multiple weapons at WR with Thomas, Sanders, and Harris, as well as Cook and Hill at TE. And Alvin Kamara, too. Brees is the heart of this team, but Kamara is the legs. He carries them. Shut him down, and the Saints become ordinary on offense. The defense, however, is fast, aggressive, and deep. The D Line can rush the QB and stop the run. The Linebackers are rangy and sure tacklers. The defensive backs are tough, fast, and play the ball well. This is the best team Brees has ever played with.

Why Tampa Bay will win: With three great receivers as well as three great tight ends, Brady can pick any target. It is near impossible to cover all the guys on any play. The RBs are pounders between the tackles, demanding attention. The Defense is like the Saints, but with even more speed from the linebackers. Lavonte David and Devin White can and will neutralize Kamara at the edges, forcing Brees to do what he can, but is hesitant to do; throw deep. Brees' arm looks older every year. This is the end fo the road for him.

Tampa Bay 31 - New Orleans 23

Playoffs! How did it go?

 How did it go? HOW did it GO???

…

It went something like this!

“Colts are playing well. They look as though they should win. Was that a catch? Was THAT a catch??? Intercep- wait, offsides. INTERCEPTION RETURNED FOR A FULL FIELD TOUCHDOW- wait, that wasn’t caught. And Bills TD for the lead!” And that was just the last drive of the first half of the first game, a narrow win by the Bills over the Colts. Josh Allen’s moxy and cannon should not be ignored. And the defense did a good job buttoning up in the red zone. Phillip Rivers moved the Colts up and down the field, but got into the endzone too infrequently.

Rams at Seahawks was a  slow developing clash between division foes in Seattle. The backup Rams QB, who started the game, was knocked out, pushing the injured starter back into the game. A big defensive play made it appear the Rams may start to run away with it, but some improv by Russ and Metcalf being left unguarded made it a game… but only briefly. Cam Akers was the offense for this Rams team, and even without Aaron Donald the D Line made Wilson uncomfortable. 

Washington fell to Tampa Bay in an exciting affair compliments of a near comeback from another backup QB, who was also hurt, but came back to make it a one score game. Taylor Heinicke showed guts dueling with the GOAT, but his early mistakes were the difference. Brady threw for 2 TDs and nearly 400 yards in this one, as the Buccaneers move on.

On Sunday, The Titans came out hard and fast to a listing Ravens team, but then the tides turned. The Ravens clamped down on Brown, bottled up Henry, and Lamar broke off a couple massive runs to win the game. Some gutless calls by Vrabel made it hard to keep the offense moving, and Tannehill never did enough to move the chains.

Jumping back to the NFC, the Bears appeared to have no direction as they only mustered 3 points before a last second TD made it a respectable 21-9 win for the Brees led Saints. Brees was again efficient, went unsacked, and had a great improv TD pass to Latavius Murray. But in the sense of fairness,, it shouldn’t be hard to beat a Chicago team plagued by 9 penalties, missing their 2nd and 3rd receiver, and their 4th WR dropped a perfect, in the basket TD catch which would have tied the game up.

And then the Browns. What can be said? No playoffs for 18 years? Spell broken. Lose at Heinz Field for 17 year? Not any more. No playoff win since 1995? Forgotten. No road playoff victory since the 50’s? That is all history! Riding a 28 point first quarter, and compliments of 4 interceptions and a fumble recovery for a TD, the Browns held on as the Steelers made it interesting with 37 points in the last three quarters. But it wasn’t enough.

This was a weekend filled with excitement and fun. Home teams lost four games and only won twice. Backup Qbs started in place of former 1st overall picks. Brady played in his first wild card game as a visitor. Nickelodeon slimed Sean Payton. Refs blew a turnover call.

What a time to be alive.

To less important matters, I went 5-1 this weekend. The pass rush did not get to Brady and Alex Smith did not play, so I blame those for my one wrong pick. My 6 year old son went 4-2 (wrongly picking Seahawks and Steelers). My toddler is 3-3, tied with my wife, and our 7 year old daughter is at 2-4. What family fun!

Super Playoff Extravaganza

Last year, I was a bit intense when it came to my Playoff analysis, so this year will be toned down (in part because I still have a day job, and January is a crazy time). But first, I join the ranks of those grateful fans who were not sure they would see a season at all 6 months ago, who 3 months were worried the playoffs would be postponed or cancelled, but are now one day removed from playoff football with cheeks in the seats. Multiple teams have announced fans will be attending games, which is a bit of a miracle in itself.

To kick it off playoff season, I would like to hold myself accountable. After week 9, I sat down and predicted every game for the remainder of the season, and I did pretty well, with the exception of Arizona in the NFC and the Raiders in the AFC. I predicted a playoff field of Steelers at Titans, Raiders at Bills, and Browns at Ravens with Chiefs on bye in the AFC, and Seahawks at WFT, Buccaneers at Cardinals, and Rams at Saints with Packers on bye in the NFC. Las Vegas flopped, and were replaced by Indianapolis, and Chicago lucked out by Arizona’s collapse, getting into the playoffs by default after a 3 game win streak before a week 17 loss. A lesson from this; do not buy into teams on win streaks without taking into account the level of competition, margin of victory, and the luck involved in getting the win.

Enough about the past; let’s look at the games this weekend!

INDIANAPOLIS AT BUFFALO

Why the Colts can win: Indianapolis has a savvy veteran QB about to retire, and he wants his shot at a Super Bowl. With no glaring weakness on the defense most of the season, the offense finally started clicking well to end the year, with Taylor showing true workhorse talent, Hilton catching TDs again, and a bevy of depth players catching passes at WR, TE, and RB.

Why the Bills will win: The antithesis of Indy, the offense has shown no glaring weakness outside of spats of an inability to run. But the defense has come on strong against some good offenses to close the season. Allen and Diggs will fare better against a strong Colts defense than Rivers will fare against a resurgent Bills defense.

Buffalo 31 – Indianapolis 23

 

LOS ANGELES (RAMS) AT SEATTLE

Why the Seahawks can win: They are at home, the defense has seemingly found its groove, and Wilson had 40 TD passes to a pair of receivers who set the Yardage (Metcalf) and receptions (Lockett) record this year.

Why the Rams will win: First, in a counter to all the Seahawk points, the defense found its form against flailing Arizona, Philly, Jets teams, and Washington, San Fran, and LA team with injured starting QBs. Lockett only had more than 100 yards receiving once all season, and Metcalf averaged 5.5/100/1TD for the first 8 games, and 5/65/.3TD since. Wilson started the first 7 games completing 71.48% of his passes with 26 TD passes, 6 picks, and 19 sacks. In the last 9 games, he is at 66.56% with 14 TDs, 7 picks, and 28 sacks. The Rams defense is built to slow him down, with pressure up the middle with Donald, tight coverage on Metcalf and Lockett with Ramsey and Hill, and containment with Floyd, Brockers, and versatile safeties. If Kupp and Goff play, they should also have the advantage over the defense which may miss Jamal Adams.

Los Angeles 27 – Seattle 17

TAMPA BAY AT WASHINGTON

Why the Buccaneers can win: Tom Brady, and he has the most diverse and stacked offense of his career. Godwin and Evans alone are great, but Gronk is the worst at TE with Howard and Brate, and AB being added is hardly fair, and the O Line is great, and Tampa Bay is not short on RBs with two first round talents. The defense, ranked 8th in points, 6th in yards, and 5th in forced turnover, is fast and furious, with Devin White leading the way. Suh, JPP, Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield Jr., Shaq Barrett, Dean or Davis, Gholston; any of these guys can take over a game.  Wow this team is scary.

Why WFT will win: Pressure on Brady is the best chance to win. And Washington is better suited than anyone in these playoffs to make that happen. Chase Young leads former first rounders Montez Sweat, Ryan Kerrigan, Daron Payne, and Jonathan Allen. I also love the athleticism in the secondary, especially if Evans is out. Make brady hold it, and this defense, 7th in turnovers, will get to the GOAT. Plus, if Alex Smith plays, he is one of the best at managing the game at taking the safe play, something which could inhibit Tampa’s ability to feast off turnovers.

Washington 20 – Tampa Bay 16

BALTIMORE AT TENNESSEE

Why the Titans can win: Derrick Henry can control a game. Tannehill rates as a top 5 QB statistically the past 2 seasons. The defense has talent in spots. Tennessee has some good pass catcher, especially in AJ Brown.

Why the Ravens will win: They are scary and versatile on both sides of the ball. Lamar, Gus Edwards, Mark Ingram, and JK Dobbins are one of the best backfield combos ever (okay, maybe just in the last 25ish years). You can have any three of those guys in on the same play and have no idea where the ball will go. The receivers and tight ends are versatile. The defense is stacked at just about every level, but especially the line to stop King Henry.

Baltimore 37 – Tennessee 25

CHICAGO AT NEW ORLEANS

Why the Bears can win: Their defense has been good, and offense even better to end the midseason losing streak, and has been much better with Trubisky than with Foles. Montgomery has come on strong at the end of the season, Graham is doing something he didn’t do in Green Bay (make red zone catches for TDs), and Akiem Hicks makes the whole defense better. Plus, Alvin Kamara had a positive Covid test, and may miss the game as it is right around the 10 day mark from his positive test.

Why the Saints will win: Brees is in, Thomas may be back, Sanders has done well, the O Line has the best tackle tandem in football, the defense is top 5 in both points and yards as well as 3rd in turnovers. Chicago feasted on weak teams to stumble into the playoffs, and with Roquan Smith maybe missing the game, Brees will do what Rodgers did and quickly pick apart the weak links.

New Orleans 38 – Chicago 17

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH

Why the Steelers can win: They have a lot of talent at a lot of key positions. TJ Watt leads a well ranked and respected defense, and they get after the QB better than anyone. Juju, Claypool, and Johnson are all doing well, and Roethlisberger remembered he can throw deep.

Why the Browns will win: Roethlisberger throws rather poorly deep, the pass protection has been shoddy, the WRs drop ball, the running game has been no-existent, and the best way to stop a pass rush is to force them to play the run. Cleveland is going without their head coach and starting guard, but Hunt and Chubb are both bruisers with speed and good feet and good hands. Myles Garrett is out to prove he should be DPOY, not Watt (or Donald), and he has a point, he did about as much in fewer games with a surrounding cast lacking the talent the other two guys have.

Cleveland 27 – Pittsburgh 20