Round 1 React

With not nearly as much movement in trades as I expected, this was one of the most tame nights of drafting this century. Very few surprises or reaches, not huge drops for most, a few flips and flops of prospects graded similarly, and New England of course trades down. As good as these players are and can be, what is often as important in determining value is which team picks them, not just which slot they were drafted. Player A at 25 for Team X may appear a terrible pick, but the same player could have gone a few spots before to Team Z and been seen as a great value. On that note, let’s dive into the Head Scratchers, Home Runs, and Base Hits.

HEAD SCRATCHERS

     Packers Trade up for Love at 26

Continuing where were left off above… what the heck. Every draft review is hitting this topic as history repeats itself. Aaron Rodgers is coming off a down year for him with ONLY 4,000 yards, a nearly 7-1 TD-INT ratio, but a definitely subpar completion percentage. Rodgers again threw away a lot of balls and held onto it too long in other cases. Is he the problem? Or is it the average draft slot for his receivers after Davante Adams is… well, low. Of players with at least 20 targets, the average slot is 212^th (if an UDFA counts as drafted 300^th). So will drafting Love, a player with similar problems Rodgers is cited for (not trusting his receivers last year) solve the concern under center for Green Bay? Problem not, as Rodgers will throw the ball away whereas Love will toss the ball into coverage.

The Pack could have addressed needs at receiver or linebacker by sitting at 30 and taking BPA. Love probably also would have fallen to them. While I think Love has the talent to be good NFL starter, the value for the Green and Gold relative to what player could have helped them win for the next three years makes this a puzzler.

     The Damon Arnette Gamble

Mayock played DB, and is a pretty good evaluator, so he may see something the rest of us don’t. But Arnette would likely have been available an entire round later. He is a good zone player with smarts and awareness hitched to huge speed concerns, the opposite of Raider picks of 20 years ago. If used correctly he could be a great player. But initial reaction is the move to Las Vegas has already created a risky business model for the Raiders. They are in a division with speed demons to cover from KC, dynamic receivers in LA, and now CeeDee Lamb at Sutton coming from Denver. This better work out for them.

     Philly Attempts Redrafting DeSean Jackson

This could be an unfair comp. Reagor is far thicker of build, Jackson is faster. But the Eagles left Justin Jefferson, a taller receiver with better route running and hands, to take Reagor, a guy who would likely be available Day 2. And if not, there was still a lot of Value from other receivers. Also, they failed to address CB with Kristian Fulton and Trevon Diggs available, as well as Gladney and Igbinoghene who went before the first round ended.

HOME RUNS

     Justin Jefferson Keeps His Colors

After playing in Purple and Gold down south, Jefferson will play in Purple and Gold up North. He should be able to almost perfectly replace the departed Diggs. Buffalo may be kicking themselves for watching the Vikings get JJ at a fraction of the cost they will be paying Diggs. Jefferson has body control, speed, length, and an insane level of success as a big slot player. Can he replicate his success without a billion other offensive weapons around to pull coverage? We will see.

     Kenneth Murray Goes West

It cost Los Angeles a second and fourth to get a dynamic, athletic, talented leader in the middle of the defense. With that D line in front and the talent behind, Murray can play like a psycho and blitz or cover without hesitation. I found Murray to be a far better prospect than any LB not named Simmons, and he can be the play caller from day 1 in the middle of this versatile and athletic defense.

     Tampa Protects Brady

Getting potentially the best tackle at 13 is a great deal. Tampa has a good interior in Marpet, Jensen, and Cappa. Joe Haeg was recently signed from Indy, but he can provide depth while Wirfs starts. Getting one more tackle a bit later may behoove the Bucs, but there are a bunch of great running backs available, some dang good defensive backs, and some dynamic linebackers, all areas of need for this team.

BASE HITS

     Top 10

Every top 10 pick satisfies needs and meets the projected draft range for those players. Three QBs makes sense, the tackles make sense, the defenders each have insane promise and production. All great picks, but given they are top 10 picks, they should be great.

     172 years later, San Fran Strikes Gold

Replacing DeForest Buckner at a fourth the price and Emmauel Sanders at a third the price are perfect moves. Last year’s NFC Champs give more weapons to Shannahan and Salah. They will dominate this year if they can add greater depth at the DB position.

2020 NFL Draft: Round 1

It is difficult to express my excitement. My heart rate is up, I have shaky hands, and I feel like the moments before a track race starts. This. Is. DRAFT NIGHT! Drafting is a horribly inexact science. Extrapolating performance from college ranks to pros is incredibly hit or miss. The most famous example probably is Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf, or infamously maybe Tony Mandrich vs. The Rest of the 1989 Top 10. In some cases, it should have been caught. Tony Mandrich was juicing. Jamarcus Russell never watched tape and was out of shape. Maurice Clarrett had glaring character concerns. Matt Jones was a physical specimen, but a QB converted to WR who never panned out largely because athletes win in college but professionals win in the NFL (because EVERYONE is an athlete).

But hope springs eternal, and tonight begins a process whereby hundreds of the most gifted athletes take a step forward in their dreams. Which teams will choose the next step forward, and who will stagnate their franchise? Honestly, who knows! But half the fun is predicting, so here are some of mine…

Weak Positions Get Overdrafted

There appears to be no complete tight end, and a severe drop off at edge after Chase Young. Defensive line prospects have some high potential guys in Kinlaw and Brown, but another decline is necessary before Blacklock, Gallimore, Madibuike, and the rest. There will probably be a handful of edge rusher taken in the first round. CBS has K’Lavon Chaisson going no later than 17 and as high as top 10. Yetur Gross-Matos, AJ Epenesa, and Curtis Weaver are each suspicious. A Yetur is a freak without dominance, and the other two have been dominant with sub-par athletic testing. However, at least four edge rushers go in the first due to scarcity. No tight ends, though.

Deep Positions Drop

Inverted from the above prediction, the deep positions see fewer first rounders due to depth. Wide receiver especially could see a few guys plummet. Juedy, Lamb, and Ruggs are all first round locks, with Jefferson the fourth due to his better than expected combine. But the rest are really tough to nail down. Higgins is a big bodied ballet player without separation, and his unimpressive testing probably dropped him out of the first round in this class. He would be dynamic for a gunslinger like Mahomes who throws to tight window players, or he could replace a former Clemson Tiger in Houston. Shenault was also unimpressive at the combine, and likely fell to the second round. Mims tested into freak status, but is he an athlete or 10 year starter at receiver? Brandon Aiyuk, Jalen Reagor, and Michael Pittman all did enough good at the combine to pair with good careers to garner first round status in almost any other year. Round 2 will have some happy shoppers in nabbing some of these guys.

Run on OTs

There are only so many men big enough to play O-Line while athletic enough to excel as a tackle. With a wide ranging group of proven players with bodies to match, and as many as 7 OTs go in the first round. Wirfs, Wills, and Thomas are in the fight for first chosen, with Jones, Jackson, and Becton falling to the middle of round 1. Ezra Cleveland is the outlier here, but he is an athletic dude with strength and length. He put up 30 reps on the bench, good for 5^th from O-Linemen, while also testing 3rd in the 40, best in the 3 Cone and Shuttle, and top 10 in the broad jump. He may have played in a Power 5 conference, but he dominated it and his testing may have pushed him into the first round.

Any RBs?

Every year there is a debate; are running backs worth a first round pick? Well JK Dobbins, DeAndre Swift, and Jonathon Taylor all say yes with Cam Akers, Zach Moss, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire cheering them on. Swift is probably the best pro prospect due to the least wear on the tires, but Taylor is fastest and proved he can catch and grind out tough yards (when not fumbling). Dobbins set OSU records, but had a supporting cast around him which made it a pick-your-poison scheme for the opposing defense. Odds are while there are three talents worthy of being drafted top 32, maybe 1 does.

Linebackers

Sorry for the boring title for this one. It is Isaiah Simmons and then a big downhill to Patrick Queen and Kenneth Murray, and then downhill again to reach the 2^nd round tier. Where does Baun land? What about Jordyn Brooks? Willie Gay Jr.? All have great football on tape with testing to match, but a deep “maybe” class at LB pushes them down together.  Simmons is the rare breed of excellent football player at multiple positions with remarkable testing. He will go top 10. Do Queen and Murray also go first round, though? I think one more of them goes in the first.

Ballhawks and Back End Enforcers

Simmons could easily be listed here as well. PFF rates him as a safety, and he would sit near the top ranks in this position. As it is, Jeff Okudah is probably the only one with the resume, testing, and body which all scream first round. CJ Henderson or Kristian Fulton are the next who grade well in each of these aspects, so they are likely to be the next guys taken at the position. But as with positions noted before, what comes next is a bit of a gamble. Terrell had a lot of talent around him, and only did well enough in most aspects. Diggs didn’t test, but is well sized. Gladney lacks some twitch and size. Inbinoghene lacks a successful resume. Jaylon Johnson played on a Power 5 which mostly smothered opponents, so was he ever really tested? Bryce Hall lacks testing and has an injury history. While each of these players will probably succeed, there are enough questions and enough 2^nd tier depth to drop many of them, leaving only 5 CBs taken in round 1, but a bevy in round two to counter all the receivers coming in the same round. At Safety, McKinney is a thumper while Delpit is a rangy center fielder. Delpit’s skills match today’s game better, and will make him the only safety picked tonight.

Generals

The marque position is at hand! Burrows, Tua, Herbert, Love are all talented, well built, and have arms and legs to help them succeed. What sets them apart is success and health. Burrows put together a video game season for the Heisman and a Championship. Tua has had sustained success countered with a savage injury. Herbert has all the apart skills, but less success (is it team, or is it him?). Love shows moxy, determination, and a boat load of talent, but easily the most risky based on performance and win record. QBs are always heralded, and tend to go high due to the importance of the position. Burrows will go first, Tua and Herbert top 12, and Love will go tonight.

Overview

There will be plenty of trades. With high value players spilling into the second and third rounds, teams will be looking to trade back and get some depth and breadth of talent. Look for 8-10 trades tonight as teams shuffle around to fit needs and value. New England avoids the QB position (for now), Vegas snags either new talent for Carr or his replacement. Epenesa probably misses the first round, and Mekhi Becton loses a lot of money due to his spotty drug test at the combine, going as the 5^th tackle instead of the second or third.

Overall, tonight will be offense heavy. 4 QBs, 1 RB, 6 WRs, 7 O-Linemen will be drafted, totaling 18 offensive players. On defense, 3 Interior defenders, 3 edge rushers, 2 linebackers, and 6 defensive backs make 14 defenders chosen. Truth be told, there is so much talent in this draft, and tomorrow will have huge value picks in both rounds due to the fallout here. Let the festivities begin!!!