Combine Predictions

I love the NFL combine. It reminds me just how unathletic I am, and how amazing these feats are. I am no athletic slouch, but I can't even perform as well as the worst combine participants. It is astounding!
But even when the best of the best come together, there are those (Calvin Johnson) who do something (Byron Jones) that embarrasses (Stephen Pea) everyone (Vernon Davis) else (Dontari Poe). It may not lead to a great career (Vernon Gholston), but it is jaw dropping at the time. Here are some predictions.

Laviska Shenault tests as a top 10 40 for WRs and top 10 at the bench... for LBs.
     I like Shenault. He is tough, strong, and knows how to carry a team. He will have a great all around workout at Lucas Oil Stadium, demonstrating his speed and strength in testing.


The top O Linemen astound
     There are a lot of athletic, agile, smooth guys coming out this year with Becton, Wirfs, Jones, Thomas to name a few. Their combination of strength and movement skills will give us the most impressive overall collection of performances from 1st Round graded linemen ever.

Five participants go under 4.3, none go under 4.26
     There is a LOT of speed in Indy this week with Henry Ruggs III and Jalen Reager poised to lead the way. Former teammates have predicted a Bo Jackson type sub 4.2 for Ruggs. Many have threatened to break the electronic 40 mark, but rarely do they even come close. Ross's record holds true for another year still.

Linebackers show their range
     Not only will a handful of linebackers show quickness and long speed, but some will challenge defensive backs in top end speed. The best linebackers will be in the top 10 of defensive back times.

Freak
     Rashan Gary tested phenomenally last year. This year there are a few defenders who can similarly wow. Javon Kinlaw can test well enough to potentially slot right behind Chase Young as the #2

Lots of reps on the bench
     I figure there will be a bunch of linebackers, d linemen, and O linemen who go over 30 resp, but a fewer strong D backs and a couple high repping RBs will also come about.

Disappointment
     Ever year there seems to be someone who falls flat (Orlando Brown, anyone?). There are lots of productive or high potential wide receivers, and a bunch will fall far short of expectations. Look for some bad testing from pass catchers, as well as some scat backs who come in far too slow for their frame.

Unheralded running backs astound
     There is high praise given to to the top running backs, but there are going to be some lower tier guys who test very well. Even given the failure of some smaller backs to prove themselves as burners, there are going to be some guys like Josh Kelley who show speed to spare.

I won't be the worst
     I will take some of my testing, and I hope to not have the worst result in any category. Being a short, slender, marathoner, this is actually quite the challenge for me. I am hoping for some ambitious hogs to do all the testing so I have some low results to beat.

Quarterback run around

Have we ever had a QB carousel like 2020 free agency is shaping up to be? I give credit to Dave Dameshek for highlighting throughout the season how crazy this off season COULD be for QB movement. With Tom Brady and Philip Rivers hitting the market, 3 QBs slated to go top 10 in many Mock Drafts, Ryan Tannehill making himself a viable starter, Winston, Mariota, and Cam probably on the move, Taysom Hill being a weapon with Teddy winning 5 games and Drew Brees future only recently announced, there is a ton going on in the market. So I decided to take some chances and make some takes regarding the QB market.

Cincy: Trade with Raiders for Carr, 2020 12, 19, 3rd, 2021 1st and 4th. Draft Love at 12

Joe Burrow is being touted as something close to a Can’t Miss Prospect. But let’s not forget the last QB from LSU to go 1^st overall was one of the biggest busts ever. Now Burrows doesn’t look at all like Jamarcus Russell, but it pays to be cautious. He was a prolific dual threat QB at Athens in Ohio as a high school student, but after committing to in state darling OSU, he backed up JT Barrett for two years before transferring to LSU when he wasn’t appointed the starter. His first year with LSU he was just OK with sub 60% completion, fewer than 3,000 yards, and a mere 16 TDs. Also, Burrows benefited from a bevy of first round talents on his offense, in skill positions and on his line. There are enough red flags to be hesitant with the first pick when it can be traded for a proven starter, 3 first round picks, and a couple others, you take it. By dropping back, Cincy also takes Jordan Love, a player with a bunch of the tools but lacking the sustained success of those higher rated passers.

Raiders: Snag Brady AND draft Burrow

The raiders purge Carr and pick up the GOAT. They also get Joe Burrow to let him adjust to the pro game for a year before he takes over. Though a 2 year, 60 million dollar deal has been brought up for Brady, my guess is it will end up as a one year deal. Burrow, though with the concerns mentioned above, is first of all a high character kid. A friend lived in Athens and their kids attended school with him. Though their son who was in his grade was in theater and drama, he raved about how good a person Burrow is. Witnessing him raise thousands for charity with his Heisman speech also attests to him being a good guy. As a historically great Heisman winner who vanquished Bama and Clemson in the same season while averaging nearly 4 TDs a night, he has insane potential.

Jax: Picks up Dalton, drafts Fromm in 2^nd

Nick Foles has shown he is far less effective away from Philly. He needs to get back there. Minshew is tantalizing, but the question of whether the team as a whole is poorly assembled or if Gardner couldn’t elevate them will lead Jacksonville to investigate the market. With Dalton on the oust from Cincy, the Red Rifle comes to Duval, while a Day 2 pick grabs his eventual replacement. Minshew is a high level back up who will be Foles South as a guy who can help the team win in dramatic fashion when needed, but doesn’t ever get the keys to the car unless there is an emergency.

Ten: Retains Tanny

This should be an easy decision for both the Titans and Ryan. He was considered washed up in Miami, and the offense was stagnant in Tennessee before he started. If Tennehill plays it smart and takes a deal below what he would get in the open market then the team can also keep Henry and retain a powerful offense.

NO: Keep Brees, let Teddy and Hill go

Bridgewater has a history as a starter and went 5-0 as a starter in ’19. Hill was the best player in the playoffs against Minnesota and wants to start. Brees wants to put records out of reach of Brady and those years behind him. This is a parting of the ways.

Pats: Teddy Bridgewater

As stated above, Teddy has experienced success already. He is young enough to be a starter for a half decade for a team looking to win. New England will coach him up and place a great team around him.

Indy: Snag Taysom Hill

Frank Reich is drooling at the opportunity to have such a dynamic weapon run his offense. He called some creative stuff in Philly, and having Hill’s athleticism would provide an opportunity for a Baltimore like overhaul for the team next season.

Mia: Tua

Don’t overthink is Miami. Fitz will hold down the fort until Tua is healthy. This will be good.

Detroit: Trades Stafford to Chargers for 2020 and 2021 1st, 2nd, 3rd, package more trades, get Herbert at 16 and ATL 2nd and 2021 2^nd

This one may seem a bit crazy, but Stafford hasn’t had a complete offense around him. While the Megatron years had an insane talent to throw to, there was little else. The Chargers have Ekelar, Allen, and more as weapons. Stafford can elevate them with his toughness and talent a la Peak-Rivers. They get a bunch of picks to take a huge cap hit before trading the Chargers’ top pick with Atlanta to grab new starter Herbert and a few extra later picks.

Chargers: Trade for Stafford

On pure arm talent, Stafford is amazing. He can modify his arm angle and release for some crazy throws. He will bring a better talent to the backfield than the Chargers have had since the early 2010’s.

Car: Trade Cam, draft Jacob Eason in 2^nd

Carolina appears to be done with Cam, so they trade him and look ahead. Jacob Eason has the size, arm talent, and prolific success to be a great pick up as a surprising first rounder, but Carolina trades down to get him and pick up other picks.

Chicago: Trade for Cam

Mitch is a poor man’s Cam, and the Prototype replaces him. Cam is going to get a deal a starter deserves, but with “prove it” details to protect Chicago. Cam is at his best pounding the opposing defense and running amuck. He is a Bull. Without having to protect either QB due to a similar mold as a back-up, both Mitch and Cam can be running and throwing bombs willy nilly and creating a crazy and exciting offense to watch in the Windy City.

Tampa Bay: Snag Rivers, let Winston go

Ariens took Old Man Carson Palmer to the cusp of the Super Bowl, and this O has better pass catcher depth. Philips will be getting close to home, starting again, and has the chance to become the top performer in a possibly weak division (dependent on Brees’ decline and how Carolina and Atlanta improve).

Pitt: Snag Winston

Big Ben won’t be around for much longer. Winston is a knock off Ben, with huge arm talent. If the eye surgery improves his interception rate, Winston may be a steal. If he still throws 20 INTs a year but with over 35 TDs, the Steel City is the place to do it thanks to the run game, O line, and defense being able to mitigate the issues.

I understand nowhere near all of these things will occur… but it would be exciting if they did!

The Big Game: Kansas City and San Francisco

It is finally Championship Week! The Chiefs have not been here in near 50 years, while the 49ers are making their second trip this decade. Both have creative and versatile offense with multiple pass catching weapons and stiff offensive lines. The defenses have created myriad problems for opponents, especially once the main characters have made a return (Dee Ford of SF, Clark and Jones for KC).

When Kansas City has the Ball: What is so exciting to me about this game is the matchup of strength versus strength. San Francisco has a powerful defense. It all starts up front, where there are six quality starters. The linebackers are rangy and tough, led by Fred Warner. Richard Sherman anchors the defensive back end a few feisty second fiddles in Williams and Mosely, and Tartt pairs with Ward to make a dangerous safety group. This defense has absolutely no weakness. The Kansas City offense has the same style. When healthy, the offensive line is one of the best at pass blocking. Kelce is a dominant tight end, with Tyreek Hill being lightning in a bottle. When Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman make your third and fourth looks, you have weapons. It is almost unfair for Mahomes to have all this at his disposal, especially when Andy Reid is calling the shots. This is the coach who made McNabb look like a Hall of Famer (who them flamed out with Washington and Minnesota), game planned Kevin Kolb into a 5 year, $60 million flame out deal with Arizona, and resurrected Michael Vick (who then flamed out with Pittsburgh). Not only that, but he took a San Francisco cast off in Alex Smith and won 4 division titles with him at the helm. To finally have a player of Mahomes caliber running his team tilts the field in Kansas City’s favor. Slight advantage 49ers.

When San Francisco has the Ball: Not to be outdone, the 49ers O and Chief’s D are both very good as well. Jimmy G has performed very well for his team without having to carry it. He makes some bad mistakes at times, and needs to read the defense better, something which will be difficult with Spagnuolo creating blitz packages. Raheem Mostert showed his talent last game. He loves playing the Packers. He not only set NFL records on route to 220 yards and 4 TDs in the NFC Championship game, but he was still little more than a bounce-around cast-off when he ran for 87 yards on 12 carries against them last year. He is FAST. His collegiate 60 meter dash is faster than even Tyreek Hill’s, whose speed we have talked about before. The linebacking corps for Kansas City may have to keep Darron Lee ready to go simply for his speed. The front line has three first rounders blocking, and have proven to create wide run lanes and pass block admirably. Chris Jones and Frank Clark must have good games and create pressure while shutting down the run to keep the score down. Emmanuel Sanders may go down as one of the better in-season trades in recent memory. He pulled coverage away from Kittle and Samuel with his crafty route running and veteran knowledge of the game. But Kittle is a beast in his own right. Tyrann Mathieu is the glue in the Chiefs back end, and easily their best player. As amazingly as Daniel Sorensen has played the last two games (seriously, he has hade over a half dozen impact plays), he is outmatched physically and athletically. He will have to play predictive and smart to stay on top of this offense. Advantage San Fran.

Outcome?: If there is any defense made to halt KC, it is this one. A Hall of Famer at CB with multiple Pro Bowl performances elsewhere in the secondary, two fast and thumping LBs, and stacked D Line to create pressure and disrupt passing and running lanes. Shanahan will scheme wins for his O against Spagnuolo, Reid and Mahomes will still get theirs, but it will be too little, and Mahomes may have an actual terrible day. It depends on Kelce. A lot of flags to thrown against his defender. If Warner, Tartt, Ward, Kwon, and Greenlaw play him tight yet clean, this offense will slow considerably. 31-17, San Francisco takes home another Lombardi.