Davante Adams has had some monster games since the beginning of last season. He has three games this year with double digit receptions for 150 yards or more, and 3 multi-TD catch games. Last year, he tore up Philly for 10 catches and 180 yards, then ate up Seattle in the playoffs for 160 yards and 2 TDs before recording 138 yards against the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. He recently got press for rather supporting the statement he is the best receiver in the game, but it was without fan fare or bravado, just a relaxed confirmation.
But I don’t buy it. When I watch him play, I see acrobatic touchdowns like the toe-tapping pirouette in the corner of the endzone on Thursday Night Football in San Fran against button tight coverage, beautiful cuts to make defenders slip and fall on a catch and run TD in the playoffs against Seattle, and him humiliating DBs on third downs. But I also see him dropping a pass on the goal line against Houston, the ball bouncing off his chest and into the air for an interception against Tampa Bay, and multiple drops and an egregious fumble against Jacksonville.
If Davante Adams is the best in the game, why am I holding my breath when the ball goes his way, unsurprised when he drops or tips passes into defenders hands?
It isn’t just when he is on the field he makes an impact. When he is off the field there is a clear difference as well. If you look at how the Green bay Packers have performed in their last 25 regular season games, you get a fairly decent view of how the team plays both with and without Adams. He missed four full games in 2019 with Turf toe, and then missed all of two and some of a third game with a hamstring injury so far this year (which, even though he was on the field early in the second half, I will count since he was only targeted 3 times). How did the Pack perform?
In those 7 games of Adams being injured, the Packers went 7-0. They beat Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, and Kansas City in 2019, and Detroit, New Orleans, and Atlanta in 2020. In those 7 games, the average score was 34-23. For a look at competition level, Dallas and Oakland missed the playoffs, but competed for a spot in December, and KC and NO either made the playoffs in 2019 or almost certainly will in 2020. Atlanta is also three “What the heck happened?” 4th quarters away from being tied for 2nd in the NFC south, so I would count them as far more competitive than the record would indicate (though you are what your record says).
In the 18 games in which Adams has played, the Packers have a record of 13-5, of which seven games were against playoff of playoff competing teams. Their losses were against 2019 NFC champion Philly, LA Chargers, the 49ers, Tampa Bay, and likely-to-be-in-the-thick-of-the-playoff-hunt Minnesota. So 4 of 5 losses are against playoff caliber teams., which isn’t too shabby, expect you should be beating these teams if you want to make the Super Bowl, of course. The Packers average score in these 18 games is 23-21. Of course, the 49ers and Buccaneers whippings largely contributed to the narrow average.
What about Rodgers? He has voiced his faith in Adams as the most athletically gifted receiver he has played with. What is the impact Adams’ absence has on Aaron’s passing numbers? With Adams, Rodgers has completed 62.5% of his passes at 6.9 Yards per Attempt. He has passed for about 248.6 yards per game, and 1.83 touchdowns against .3 interceptions per game. This equates to a passer rating of 95.88. When Adams is injured, Rodgers completion goes up to 68.5%, his Yards per Attempt goes up to 9.1, his touchdowns per game increase to 2.7, interceptions drop to .1 per game, and his passing yardage increases to over 300 per game. Incidentally, he also takes fewer sacks.
To illuminate a few oddities during Adams’ absence, Aaron Jones did go off for 4 TD runs against Dallas. Allen Lazard had his coming out party off the bench in a come back against Detroit. Rodgers threw a PERFECT GAME against Oakland. Kansas City was without Mahomes. Allen Lazard had his coming out party as a starter against New Orleans. Atlanta fired Dan Quinn the next loss after the game at Green Bay (and has gone 3-1 since).
This is not an exhaustive list, nor concrete and infallible. It is not to say he is not deserving of recognition for his footwork off the LOS, his amazing touchdown count over the last few seasons (leads the league since the start of 2016 with 49 while missing 10 games). He is dangerous with the ball in his hands, and an acrobat tracking the ball in the air…
… but would I take him if I had a chance at anyone else? This is I think one of the best tests for a player. If I had the chance to pick any receiver, would I take Adams? The answer is no. Flat out no. DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, and Julio Jones immediately come to mind as players I would want first, with Stefon Diggs likely being ahead of him. Adams is then lost in a logjam of Pro Bowl caliber receivers in Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, AJ Brown, Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin, and Allen Robinson (Disclaimer!!! The list is not to shade Lockett, Metcalf, Kupp, McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Justin Jefferson, AJ Green, the multitude of receivers in Pittsburgh, or any other player not explicitly mentioned, though they weren't on the list because I would likely choose Adams before them).
From my perspective, as dynamic, talented, and successful as Davante Adams has been, he is not the best receiver in the NFL, and likely never will be.
