In Spring of 2019, I put together a list of players I deemed overvalued based on draft rankings, and others I found undervalued. This was not a determination of who would be a good player in the NFL, merely those who I felt would not produce an NFL career concurrent with their projected draft slot.
So, as with all NFL Draft reviews, we should also look at how well the projection was. With a year under their belts (though 2 or 3 years is better), the question is; How Did I Do?
(Players are in order of projected draft slot, based on a composite of Sports Illustrated, Gil Brandt, etc.)
Jonah Williams - Undervalued (Incomplete)
Analytical and technical in his play, I thought he was the best OT in the class. He was ranked as the 3rd OT in a lot of boards, and I took issue with that. However, he was the top drafted OT, supporting my views, but a missed rookie season destroyed any logical chance at review. Let's find out how he plays, though.
DK Metcalf - Overvalued (Nailed It)
My issues with Metcalf were all about scheme fit. He has more athleticism than basically any WR not named Calvin Johnson maybe ever, but the comparisons to Kevin White and Cordarrelle Patterson can also be made. Top 15 was too high, but end of the 2nd was good. End of the 2nd to Seattle was just about perfect, and I loved it for this team. Carroll and Wilson help DK play to his strengths (a simple route tree) and they will help him improve his game as time goes on. 900 yards and 7 TDs is amazing, but his sub 60% catch rate will need improvement.
Brian Burns - Overvalued (Hit)
A higher first round pick on a guy who will only rush the passer is risky. Burns ended last season with 7.5 sacks, but only 25 total tackles. A midseason surgery on his wrist slow his play, however. I think he is a dangerous pass rusher, but not a complete player. If he rounds out his game while still becoming a top 20 pass rusher, this will have been worth it. I have my doubts, however.
Clelin Ferrell - Overvalued (Nailed It)
I thought going first round at all was risky for him. Going top 5 was insane to me. He did not dominate. He was never graded above 70 by PFF as a pass rusher, and his play against the run was OK. He finished as a decent player, not good for 4th overall.
Cody Ford - Overvalued (Hit)
I didn't like the first round slot for him, but liked the player. Going early 2nd was a good place for him, but still a bit high. While I feel he got hosed with his block penalty in the playoff loss to Houston, there were enough problems with his play in 2019 outside that. I didn't see him as having all the tools to succeed. He was on a quick pass offense with a bunch of talented linemen.
Marquise Brown - Overvalued (Mixed Bag)
His speed and explosiveness are tough to ignore, but so is his diminutive size. I thought 33rd was too high, but going first round to Baltimore actually didn't upset me too much. I found he fit their scheme wonderfully, but first round for a one trick pony is still hard to swallow. If he expands his usefulness, first round will be worth it. I wasn't far off with a 60 target expectation (he netted 71 in 2019), but he also kept defenses from stacking against the run. Update Edit: Brown has been underwhelming through 3 games of 2020. So far, I appear accurate in my assessment.
Dalton Risner - Undervalued (Nailed It)
Made PFF All-Rookie as a top 20 player at his position. Projected at 41st, drafted 41st, he should hold together the Denver line for a years.
JoeJuan Williams - Overvalued (Nailed It)
He didn't seem to have any skill would would elevate him in the Pros. Going to New England seemed great for him, but still going mid-second seemed early. He appears to be getting playing time at Safety, so them drafting a super athlete there this year appears to confirm my suspicions; he just isn't athletic enough. Update Edit: He has played safety well, and did a good job against TE Waller in week 3.
Greedy Williams - Overvalued (Hit)
I didn't like the rank Gil gave him (27th), but mid 2nd seemed okay, as long as he wasn't expected to dominate right away. He graded well, but not great. His tackling was his best trait, which is strange for a long and lean CB. Reminds me a bit of Al Harris. He needs to improve a LOT on his ball skills.
Julian Love - Undervalued (Nailed It)
He dropped a lot in the draft, which personally upset me, but he made up for it with his high value play. He may be a starter in the secondary moving forward, though his speed may shift him to safety. (He is listed at Safety by ESPN)
Mack Wilson - Overvalued (Nailed it)
When Kirksey went down at ILB last year, Mack stepped in... and wilted. He did poorly against the run, and also the pass. He even fell from his 2nd round slot to the 5th, and somehow still failed to live up to expectation.
Chuma Edoga - Undervalued (Mixed Bag)
He ended up getting drafted about in line with his projection. he needs to mature, devoting himself to improving in the weight room. He is currently #2 RT for the Jets after they signed George Fant this offseason, but the team appears high on him.
Hakeem Butler - Undervalued (Incomplete)
He missed his rookie season, and then the team traded for DeAndre Hopkins. He needs to improve routes/separation and clean up drops, but he also generates a ton of highlight catches. He also tested athletically better than he plays, generally. Update Edit: After being cut from AZ, he is finally signed to a roster (Philly) ahead of week 4.
David Edwards - Undervalued (Mixed Bag)
Succeeded at Guard, but demonstrated the traits I saw. He fell in the draft, but played at the draft level where I saw him going. He did have a good line around him to help him only play his game.
Christian Miller - Overvalued (Hit)
He was ranked later 3rd, but went early 4th round, but he did still drop a bit. I think he could have gone a whole round later. Hampered by injury, he only generated 2 sacks in 7 games. He needs a healthy, full season to grade him.
Terry McLaurin - Undervalued (Nailed It)
Not even a top 10 drafted WR, he went for nearly 1000 yards on a team with little talent and earned PFF All Rookie team. He also was drafted a bit higher than projected. He is Washington's #1 pass catcher moving forward. Update Edit: McLaurin continues to produce as Washington's only established offensive weapon.
David Long - Undervalued (Mixed Bag)
A lot of talent in front of him stopped him from playing a lot, and he wasn't great when he did play. He went higher than projected, but needs more playing time to assess. Should be the Rams' starter in the slot this year.
Foster Moreau - Undervalued (Nailed It)
Fell in the draft, but became PFF's All Rookie Tight end. He caught 21 of 23 passes with 5 TDs, and snagged every Red Zone target his way. Playing behind Waller limits opportunity, but he made the most of each one.
Darrell Henderson - Undervalued (Hit)
Went over a round earlier in the draft than projected, but is frequently running with the 1's in LA. He has to be used correctly. He did well for himself last year breaking tackles, but needs to also protect the ball. With Gurley leaving the Rams, he should easily eclipse last years production but the quarter pole. Update Edit: Henderson has had a season worth of good games already. If he plays even marginally well in a half dozen starts the grade with shift to Nailed.
David Montgomery - Undervalued (Nailed It)
Chicago loved him enough to draft him earlier than projected and send their #1 RB off in a trade. He can catch, block, and run hard. Over 1000 scrimmage yards and 7 TDs is pretty good. Expect a lot more this year. Update Edit: Tarik Cohen signed an extension, and then was lost for the year. This is Montgomery's backfield now.
Bryce Love - Undervalued (Incomplete)
With a de facto red shirt last year, his opportunities should increase with both Guice and Peterson gone. My projection was with a complete return to form, which is difficult to project for an ACL injury.
Isaiah Johnson - Undervalued (Incomplete)
Injuries derailed the entire year, but he was drafted barely ahead of projection.
Porter Gustin - Undervalued (Miss)
Went undrafted after barely being able to show anything pre-draft thanks to a bad ankle injury. Currently with Cleveland, he is listed as #2 DE behind Myles Garrett. Update Edit: May not start on this deep line, but he is making a great impact as a relief rusher. This may shift to hit at least because it shows the evaluation of his was largely on his failures, not on how he could be used successfully.
Kris Boyd - Undervalued (Mixed Bag)
Drafted even later than projected, he played well as a special teamer for Minnesota last year. With the top three CBs departing in FA, he needs to show Minnesota was right to move on from their starters. However, two early draft picks from 2020 are now in his way.
Bobby Evans - Undervalued (Hit)
Went earlier than projected, and seemed to play well, but not exceptional, as a starter. He has improvements to make, but is in a good place to show he can be a league wide starter at RT. With health back to the Rams line he should go back to Special teams.
Ben Burr-Kirven - Undervalued (Mixed Bag)
He was drafted earlier than projected, which I picked. He excelled as a special teamer, but higher drafted players at LB and the presence of two heavily entrenched starters make his potential in Seattle limited.
Germaine Pratt - Undervalued (Hit)
Cincy valued him better than the projections, taking him over 3 rounds earlier. Showed continued improvement for the Bengals as the season progressed. He should continue his improvement, largely against the run.
Trace McSorely - Undervalued (Incomplete)
He is redshirting, and barring an injury will never play QB for this team, most likely. However, his skill set is a poor impression of Lamar Jackson, and he should do fine as the back up.
David Sills V - Undervalued (Miss)
Projecting late round WRs is tough. Sills went undrafted, stayed on the Bills practice squad, and was looking like a 53 man roster player for the Giants before a fractured foot. Not really below projection, but I thought he would do better.
Isaiah Buggs - Overvalued (Nailed It)
He just doesn't succeed when he isn't surrounded by great talent and feasting on weak talent. Even though he dropped in the draft below projection, he will likely not be a starter by any means.
Sione TakiTaki - Undervalued (Mixed Bag)
While he was drafted above projection, he was little more than a special teamer and spot defender. He did quite well when he did play, but very little tape to view.
Alex Barnes - Undervalued (Miss)
Not even listed as a practice squad member, Barnes should have stayed at K State one more year.
Darwin Thompson - Undervalued (Hit)
The Chiefs keep getting dynamic RBs. Darwin is a mismatch tool, and he has had continued success as a relief player. The drafting of CEH in the first will continue to limit Darwin's role, however.
Cody Thompson - Undervalued (Miss)
Looking to be a practice squad player for Seattle, a team with a lot of WR talent in front of him. If he stops projecting his routes with the way he comes off the line, he may be able to actually make it as a support role WR.
TL;DR... I feel I did quite well. My evaluation was fitting for 19 of 23 players who I determined we can make a full assessment of.
I didn't grade myself as having missed until Porter Gustin (who was hampered by injury and has made a position change), and then 3 offensive skill players who were, at best, borderline draftable. My projection for these players was maybe a roster spot, but likely PS last year and roster this year. David Sills V may yet prove me right, and Cody Thompson has a chance.
There were a lot of incomplete or mixed bag grades, too (11). 4 players were injured the majority of the season, and a lot of Mixed Bag are due to solidified starters ahead of the drafted player. Hakeem Butler may yet shift to miss as he has since been cut from AZ's squad and not even on a practice squad at this point. Jonah Williams, David Long, Sione TakiTaki, and Chuma Edoga, Isaiah Johnson, and David Edwards may move to hits if they become decent starters. Ben Burr-Kirven, Trace McSorely, Kris Boyd, and Bryce Love may still have to wait, which, as largely late rounders, still isn't a miss yet.
Then come the good evaluations. I hit on 9 and Nailed 10 evaluations. These are mostly players whose seasons demonstrated better ability than projections dictated. However some (eg, Hollywood Brown, DK Metcalf) are those who maybe were projected highly, but the situation they were in fit their talent in an excellent way for them to succeed. A lot of Alabama players were worse than projected, which I rightly determined, and Clelin Ferrell at #4 was an overdraft at this point, with former teammate Dexter Lawrence showing himself as the better Clemson product thus far. David Montgomery, Terry McLaurin, Foster Moreau, and Julian Love appear especially good choices.
