I have avoided the INSANELY WAY TO EARLY INITIAL REACTION TO WHO WON THE DRAFT by waiting about a month. Now I am only in the WAY TO EARLY REACTION boat.
I agree looking at the draft within mere weeks of it occurring, before anyone even practices, before games start, and before a few years in to gauge assimilation, growth, and development to the pro field is not the best way to determine a winner. But I love making projections, so I took the time early on to discover who I found to be over drafted, under drafted, and which team did the best job of snagging players I anticipate are to be good value.
My formula is very simple. If I feel the player drafted is a great deal at that slot relative to projections, they get 8 points. If they were vastly over drafted, -10. A good but not amazing pick, +2, and a bad but not terrible pick, -4. A questionable pick based only on needs and impact nets -1 (for instance if Tampa Bay had drafted Cole Kmet in the third round with OJ Howard, Gronk, and Brate on the roster). This is incredibly simple, but I think it will grade things out fairly well.
The Biggest Winner: Tampa Bay (15 points)
When TB snagged TB, and then bringing in a rested up Gronkowski, they already "Won the Offseason." However, Tampa was then able to draft two fantastic players with only one questionable draft choice (which may still pan out fantastically). Getting Tyler Johnson in the middle 5th, a player who was the Golden Gopher offense for his time as a starter and could still not be stopped, appears to be a great snag. This is the guy who can and will do everything N'Keal Henry was supposed to do for Brady last year, but over 100 picks later. Tristan Wirfs is my pick for best OL in he draft. Iowa just makes these guys. He scored highly because he was drafted as the 4th tackle, a great deal as far as I am concerned. Taking Vaughn out of Vanderbilt in the early 3rd raised some eyebrows, but if he becomes more consistent (and being on a team with a respectable QB and weapons at WR and TE should help) he could become a nice pick, just earlier than anticipated. Other notable picks are Antoine Winfiled at safety in the second, Khalil Davis as a DL in the 6th, and speed RB Calais in the 7th.
The Biggest Loser: Green Bay (-13)
Only two teams graded under -1 draft score, so Green Bay really knocked it out of the park. I noted this in my last post, but let me hit this again regarding GBs draft; I am not knocking the players here, but questioning the team.
Jordan Love will probably be a starting QB in the NFL, but trading up when Rodgers has stated wanting another probably 5 years to play is questionable. AJ Dillon is more than a sledgehammer, with explosiveness and shifty feet and good vision, but in a backfield with 2019 TD leader Aaron Jones and pass catching specialist Jamal Williams, when will Dillon see the field? Granted, Jones and Williams are both in their last contract year, so Dillon may be a starter moving forward. Could be a great pick! Deguara in the third seems a big overdraft on the surface, but he fits well with LaFluer's scheme. If he plays as well as his athleticism and skill set shows he should, he will be a good pick. Taking Kamal Martin in the 5th appears to be a thumper with little athleticism and awareness... so worse than Martinez, who many Packer fans are happy to see leave. All lost the team points. I like the Runyan pick, and two other draftees at OL will probably help, as will another pick in the back end at FS, but overall this is an underwhelming and confusing draft to me.
Other Big Winners
Cleveland (12)
I am almost tired of being excited for Cleveland. But Jordan Elliot as a disruptive interior DL in the 3rd, ball hawk Grant Delpit at the middle 2nd, big slot and return man Donovan Peoples-Jones in the 6th, and new starting tackle Jedrick Wills are each dang good picks based on slot and relative availability. Each of these guys are likely to start much of the next year if healthy.
Arizona, LA Chargers, New Orleans (10)
Each of these teams had very good drafts, so I will only highlight the best of each team.
Arizona drafted OT Josh Jones early in the 3rd round. I figured he would go in the mid 1st. He is tall at 6'7", but not sluggish, and dominated at Houston. A rare body type with a great resume, albeit at a lower level school.
LA Was able to get KJ Hill out of OSU in the 7th round. I saw some mocks putting him in late day 2, and I hated that. However, he runs great routes, has near perfect hands, and will be a great safety blanket foe a decade.
New Orleans also got their best value guy in the early 3rd in Zach Baun. Baun was touted as a potential round 1 guy following a great last year as Wisconsin and some good testing at the combine and pro day. As a late day 2 pick, he may be a starter and swiss army knife between rushing off the edge, dropping in coverage, or playing thumper in the middle.
Other Big Losers
Atlanta (-8)
I actually like Mykal Walker, but the pick here is concerning to me. He is raw, which could be good, and if he is used and excels as a pass rusher, I will gladly eat crow on this. Jaylinn Hawkins is not really a terrible pick given the void at Safety depth this draft, but I still was a little shaken by it.
Overview
This draft lacked a lot of fireworks for me. There were fewer trades than I thought, and most of the surprises were more so over drafted questions as opposed to Herbert going before Tua or something else of that nature. A lot of great players were added to rosters, though, and this next season could see some insane talent influx due to this deep class. Hopefully the games will actually all be played safely.
